SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin and far west Texas. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and New England... Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are present along/east of the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians from parts of the Carolinas northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Even with mid-level lapse rates remaining fairly modest, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow corridor across these regions with additional filtered daytime heating. Large-scale ascent associated with a slow-moving upper trough over the mid MS Valley will gradually overspread the destabilizing warm sector in the next few hours. This ascent, along with orographic lift over the higher terrain, should aid in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should be present, which will support a mix of multicells and marginal supercells. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with the multiple clusters that develop as they spread northeastward through the evening, but some hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Greater confidence exists in overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with minimal changes. The tornado threat remains less clear across these regions, but some modest enhancement to the southwesterly low-level flow could aid in occasional low-level updraft rotation. ...Southeast... 12Z soundings across the central Gulf Coast states show that convection that occurred yesterday into the overnight/early morning hours generally stabilized the environment this morning. Widespread cloudiness evident in visible satellite imagery late this morning should tend to delay/hinder robust destabilization this afternoon along/ahead of the southeastward-advancing synoptic cold front, which lends considerable uncertainty to the overall intensity of renewed convection along/ahead of the front later today. Still, mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear are forecast to gradually strengthen through the afternoon/evening as the upper trough over the mid MS/lower OH Valley develops slowly eastward. This should support some threat for organized convection, and isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters that can form. With continued concerns regarding the degree of instability developing this afternoon, confidence remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin... Modestly enhanced southerly mid-level flow will overspread parts of the western and northern Great Basin as an upper trough moves eastward over the western CONUS through the afternoon/evening. While boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain very limited, increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal destabilization should aid in weak MLCAPE developing by this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread northward, with an isolated threat for severe winds given steepened low-level lapse rates and a very well mixed boundary layer. Small hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Far West Texas... Even though large-scale ascent should remain weak/nebulous across far west TX and vicinity today, isolated supercell development still appears possible in a modest post-frontal/low-level upslope flow regime. Both low-level winds and MLCAPE are expected to remain modest, but strengthening westerly winds with height in mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Based on latest guidance trends showing a supercell or two developing this afternoon/evening, have introduced a Marginal Risk for hail across parts of far west TX and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat May 3 14:00:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 3 14:00:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon into evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. An isolated severe threat may develop across the Southeast, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States to Southern New England... Thinking remains that the primary severe risk will focus today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, including western/northern Virginia and parts of West Virginia/Maryland into southern/eastern Pennsylvania to southeast New York and southern New England. Even with higher-level cloud cover spreading into the region, ample heating will occur within the prefrontal warm sector, generally coincident with near 60/lower 60s F surface dewpoints in the lee of the Appalachians, with upwards of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible especially across parts of Virginia/Delmarva into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A belt of moderately strong mid-level southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization, coincident with the moderately buoyant warm sector. Organized cells/clusters should develop during the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and possibly some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. ...Southeast States/Tennessee Valley... Several linear bands of storms and possibly multiple weak MCVs are ongoing this morning across the Florida Panhandle, eastern Alabama, into western/northern Georgia. An isolated severe risk may exist early today primarily across the Florida Panhandle with an ongoing linear cluster of storms. Otherwise, subsequent later-day destabilization is uncertain in the wake of this convection. Some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. This could potentially include parts of Alabama, eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and eastern Mississippi. ...Nevada into Oregon/Idaho... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Parts of the Texas Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Very isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west Texas. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and if somewhat greater instability materializes, severe probabilities might need to be introduced for isolated supercell/related hail potential. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 05/03/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Tuesday... The upper low in the Four Corners region will make more progress eastward on Tuesday. It will be weakening with time, however. The surface pattern in turn will be somewhat disorganized. At least some southeasterly winds at the surface will continue to advect richer moisture into Central and East Texas. A warm front will be positioned from the central Gulf coast northwestward to near the Red River. A composite front/dryline is also expected in Central Texas. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with early period precipitation and has the farthest south cluster/MCS comparatively as well. Given the forcing from an ejecting shortwave trough and stronger 850 mb flow into the warm front, this solution appears to be more plausible at this point. This would lead to considerable uncertainty as to the degree of destabilization in parts of Central Texas into the Sabine Valley. That said, wind fields will be supportive of severe storms. Should more limited precipitation occur, severe storms could be more focused along the warm front and dryline. Confidence in placement of key features remains too low for highlights at this time. ...D5/Wednesday... The upper-level low will become an open wave by Wednesday. Significant loss of amplitude is also expected by this time. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will remain over coastal Texas into the central and parts of the eastern Gulf coast. With this upper-level and surface pattern, it is not clear how far inland greater buoyancy will reach. This uncertainty coupled with storm development not being favorably timed diurnally reduces confidence in highlighting any corridors of greater severe potential. ...D6/Thursday into the Weekend... The elongated upper trough is forecast to become another weak cutoff low in the lower Mississippi Valley. In the West, an upper-level ridge will build and move over the Plains by the weekend. This pattern does not suggest a significant risk of organized severe storms, though mesoscale/conditional areas may eventually become evident. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms capable of large hail are possible along the eastern Florida Peninsula coast. ...Synopsis... With the upper-level blocking pattern still in place, movement of the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will be slow. The Southwest upper low is expected to make enough progress eastward that stronger mid-level winds will spread more broadly across the southern Plains. ...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains/central Texas... Moisture return will continue roughly along the Rio Grande Valley into portions of central Texas and the Permian Basin. Models differ on the northward advancement of this moisture, but generally agree that low 60s F dewpoints should reach southeast New Mexico and parts of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. As the mid-level shortwave trough ejects into the region by the afternoon, convection is expected to form within the Davis Sacramento Mountains as well as on the surface trough/dryline. These initial storms will likely be supercellular given 50-55 kts of effective shear and 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Large to very-large hail and isolated severe gusts would be the main threats. During the evening, the low-level jet and moisture advection will strengthen. Upscale growth into one or more clusters of storms will be possible as this occurs. This pattern would support MCS development and a greater risk for severe wind gusts, but with the placement of the theta-e gradient uncertain, an increase in severe probabilities will be withheld at this point. Additional strong/severe storms are possible along the pseudo warm front/moisture gradient in central Texas during the afternoon. There is some potential for additional activity during the evening overnight depending on the evolution of convective clusters/MCSs farther west. ...Florida... Moderately strong flow aloft will continue on Monday across the Florida Peninsula on the southern flank of the upper low. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) and stronger surface heating should promote 1500 to perhaps 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. As storms develop on the eastern sea breeze boundary, a few strong to severe storms will be capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. ...Mid-Atlantic... Early day precipitation and cloud cover make afternoon destabilization uncertain in this region. Winds fields will support organized storms, however. If confidence increases in greater destabilization within parts of the Blue Ridge/Piedmont region, a marginal hail/wind risk may be warranted. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional strong to severe storms capable of large hail are possible along the eastern Florida Peninsula coast. ...Synopsis... With the upper-level blocking pattern still in place, movement of the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will be slow. The Southwest upper low is expected to make enough progress eastward that stronger mid-level winds will spread more broadly across the southern Plains. ...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains/central Texas... Moisture return will continue roughly along the Rio Grande Valley into portions of central Texas and the Permian Basin. Models differ on the northward advancement of this moisture, but generally agree that low 60s F dewpoints should reach southeast New Mexico and parts of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend. As the mid-level shortwave trough ejects into the region by the afternoon, convection is expected to form within the Davis Sacramento Mountains as well as on the surface trough/dryline. These initial storms will likely be supercellular given 50-55 kts of effective shear and 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Large to very-large hail and isolated severe gusts would be the main threats. During the evening, the low-level jet and moisture advection will strengthen. Upscale growth into one or more clusters of storms will be possible as this occurs. This pattern would support MCS development and a greater risk for severe wind gusts, but with the placement of the theta-e gradient uncertain, an increase in severe probabilities will be withheld at this point. Additional strong/severe storms are possible along the pseudo warm front/moisture gradient in central Texas during the afternoon. There is some potential for additional activity during the evening overnight depending on the evolution of convective clusters/MCSs farther west. ...Florida... Moderately strong flow aloft will continue on Monday across the Florida Peninsula on the southern flank of the upper low. Temperatures aloft will remain relatively cool (-10 to -12 C at 500 mb) and stronger surface heating should promote 1500 to perhaps 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. As storms develop on the eastern sea breeze boundary, a few strong to severe storms will be capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. ...Mid-Atlantic... Early day precipitation and cloud cover make afternoon destabilization uncertain in this region. Winds fields will support organized storms, however. If confidence increases in greater destabilization within parts of the Blue Ridge/Piedmont region, a marginal hail/wind risk may be warranted. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... ...Southwest... Fire weather concerns are expected to increase across portions of southwest New Mexico and into adjacent areas of far southeast Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave off the West Coast that is forecast to progress inland over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls are expected across the Four Corners region with a strengthening of low/mid-level flow over southern AZ/NM. Although a band of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected across central portions of these states, a plume of very dry air emanating out of northern Mexico will overspread far southeast AZ/southwest NM. Ensemble guidance shows very good agreement in afternoon RH reductions into the teens with 15-25 mph winds. Severe rainfall deficits over the past 30 days (10-20% of normal) have allowed fuels to dry with ERC values generally above the 80th percentile across southern NM/southeast AZ. Both elevated and critical fire weather conditions may extend north of the current outlook area into western NM; however, swaths of wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours should modulate the fire threat with northward and eastward extent. ...Northern Plains... The development of a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains on Sunday afternoon will induce strong southerly winds across the central to northern Plains. A recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf yesterday, followed by weak offshore flow today, will result in limited moisture return on Sunday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible across the Dakotas and eastern MT as winds increase to 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the 20-30% range. However, recent rainfall over the past 72 hours has increased fuel moisture for the near term. Fuel trends will continue to be monitored, and highlights may be needed if fine fuels can sufficiently recover over the next 24-48 hours. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico. ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will feature two cutoff lows, one in the lower/mid Ohio Valley and another that will develop near the lower Colorado Valley. A surface low in the central/northern Appalachians will slowly fill during the day. A cold front will slowly progress eastward through parts of the Southeast into the Blue Ridge/Piedmont. In New Mexico, weak moisture return and upslope flow will occur in the southern Rockies. ...Florida... With the front pushing into portions of the northern Gulf, weak warm air advection and mid-level ascent on the southern periphery of the upper low may promote showers/thunderstorms into the eastern Gulf and perhaps the western Florida Peninsula. This activity plus cloud cover associated with the subtropical jet will impact the degree of destabilization that occurs in some areas. Still, the pattern favors thunderstorm along the eastern sea breeze boundary during the afternoon. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along with 25-30 kts effective shear across the sea breeze will promote supercells. Temperatures aloft are expected to be -12 to -14 C. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with the strongest storms. A tornado would be possible with a supercell favorably interacting with the sea breeze boundary. Additional storms are possible along the front in the eastern Florida Panhandle/North Florida. Shear will be stronger closer to the upper low, but convergence is not overly strong along the front. Storm development will depend on local areas of stronger heating/convergence. ...Georgia into Piedmont/Blue Ridge and upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Precipitation will likely be ongoing for most of these areas early Sunday morning. With at least low 60s F dewpoints extending into much of the Mid-Atlantic, destabilization is expected behind the morning activity. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is greatest from eastern Georgia into the Carolinas as the precipitation should move out sooner. Potentially lingering precipitation and cloud cover cast more uncertainty on the severe potential for the Mid-Atlantic into the upper Ohio Valley region. 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible during the afternoon. Effective shear of 35-40 kts will promote a few marginally organized cells capable of marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds. ...New Mexico... With the cold front having moved into the northern Gulf, moisture return along the western flank of the surface high will be weak. Mid to upper 40s F dewpoints can be reasonably expected. However, temperatures of -14 to -16 C at 500 mb will allow weak buoyancy to develop. Mid-level ascent from subtle shortwaves and upslope flow will promote widely scattered to scattered storms in the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will promote at least modest storm organization despite limited buoyancy. Small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong winds would be possible with this activity. ..Wendt.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible later today into this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. A more isolated severe threat may also develop across the Southeast and Ohio Valley, and also across parts of the Great Basin. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop across parts of IL/MO later today. This cyclone will be embedded within a broad mid/upper-level trough covering much of eastern CONUS. A slow-moving cold front will gradually progress southeastward from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. One frontal wave may move east-northeastward during the day toward southern New England, while the primary surface low gradually consolidates over the OH/TN Valleys. The western portion of the front will continue to move across Deep South TX into the lower MS Valley. For the western CONUS, a mid/upper-level trough will amplify and dig southeastward into parts of the Southwest and Great Basin. A cold front will move eastward across parts of the Great Basin in conjunction with this system. ...Parts of the East... The greatest relative severe threat within the broad prefrontal region across the East is currently expected from the Carolina Piedmont into parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, where somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization is currently expected. A belt of moderate midlevel southwesterly flow in advance of the slow-moving mid/upper trough will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. Organized cells/clusters may develop during the afternoon from the northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England, as a frontal wave and modestly enhanced low-level jet move northeastward across the region. These storms will pose a threat of damaging winds and isolated hail, and perhaps some localized tornado potential. Farther south, scattered storm development is expected during the afternoon near/east of the Blue Ridge. Moderate buoyancy/shear and relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat of damaging wind and hail with the strongest storms. Uncertainty is greater regarding potential for destabilization in the wake of morning storms across parts of eastern MS into AL/GA and FL Panhandle. However, some increase in deep-layer shear and cooling temperatures aloft will accompany the approaching mid/upper trough, and adequate heating/destabilization could result in redevelopment of strong to locally severe storms along the cold front during the afternoon and evening. Portions of the Southeast may require greater severe probabilities if trends begin to support stronger instability in advance of the cold front. ...Parts of NV into OR/ID... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the northern Great Basin and vicinity, as favorable large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread the region. Buoyancy will generally remain modest (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg or less), but moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates could support a few stronger storms capable of localized severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. ...Parts of the TX Big Bend/Trans-Pecos region... Isolated storm development is possible during the afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across parts of west TX. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the magnitude of destabilization across the region, though MLCAPE may remain rather modest (around 500 J/kg). Veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, so if somewhat greater instability materializes compared to current expectations, then a supercell or two with some hail potential could evolve with time. ...Deep South TX... Strong storms could be ongoing near the cold front across a small part of Deep South TX at the start of the forecast period, though it is also possible that the front and any remaining severe threat will have already passed through the region. Any remaining storms this morning could pose a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Moore.. 05/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited across the country for today. Dry conditions will prevail across the Southwest, but weak low-level pressure gradient winds will limit the potential for dry and windy conditions. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from central NM westward across AZ and into central NV this afternoon. Very dry boundary layer conditions sampled in 00 UTC soundings may support occasional dry lightning strikes away from slow-moving rain cores across western NM into central AZ. Similar thermodynamic conditions and storm motions were observed yesterday (Friday) and resulted in pockets of wetting rainfall as well as a few dry lightning strikes. However, the coverage of dry lightning over receptive fuels remains too limited to warrant a risk area based on latest CAM guidance and fuel analyses. ..Moore.. 05/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0217 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 217 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-131-249-273-297-311-355-391-409-479-030540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE DUVAL JIM WELLS KLEBERG LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO WEBB GMZ231-232-236-250-255-030540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 Read more

WW 217 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 030050Z - 030700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 750 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South central Texas and the middle Texas coast Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 750 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, including supercells, will spread southeastward through tonight. The more intense storms will be capable of producing large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging gusts up to 70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Laredo TX to 40 miles south southeast of Victoria TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 212...WW 213...WW 214...WW 215...WW 216... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0217 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 217 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 217 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-131-175-249-273-283-297-311-355-391-409-469-479- 030340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN DUVAL GOLIAD JIM WELLS KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WEBB GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-030340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS Read more

WW 0215 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 215 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW DRT TO 30 SSW HDO TO 50 ENE COT. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 03/03Z. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-127-163-271-323-325-463-507-030300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA DIMMIT FRIO KINNEY MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0215 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 215 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW DRT TO 30 SSW HDO TO 50 ENE COT. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND 03/03Z. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..KERR..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 215 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-127-163-271-323-325-463-507-030300- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA DIMMIT FRIO KINNEY MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 215 SEVERE TSTM TX 022010Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the watch area. These storms will drift southeastward through the early evening, posing a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north of Del Rio TX to 15 miles west southwest of Cotulla TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 209...WW 210...WW 211...WW 212...WW 213...WW 214... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0216 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 216 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW AUO TO 10 NNW ATL TO 50 NW AHN TO 50 SSE TYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662 ..MOORE..05/03/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-013-035-063-077-089-113-117-121-135-139-149-151-157-171- 199-217-231-247-255-281-285-297-311-030240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW BUTTS CLAYTON COWETA DEKALB FAYETTE FORSYTH FULTON GWINNETT HALL HEARD HENRY JACKSON LAMAR MERIWETHER NEWTON PIKE ROCKDALE SPALDING TOWNS TROUP WALTON WHITE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more