SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190

2 weeks 5 days ago
WW 190 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 291900Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 190 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma West Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail are the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southeast of Midland TX to 40 miles east northeast of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 188...WW 189... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189 Status Reports

2 weeks 5 days ago
WW 0189 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 189 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW OWB TO 50 S BMG TO 55 SE IND. ..SPC..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 189 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-292340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON KYC027-091-163-292340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRECKINRIDGE HANCOCK MEADE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 191 Status Reports

2 weeks 5 days ago
WW 0191 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 191 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW MGW TO 30 ENE LBE TO 15 SSE DUJ TO 15 NW DUJ TO 20 WNW JHW. ..SPC..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...ALY...PBZ...CTP...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 191 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-009-011-015-023-029-033-035-037-041-043-045-049-051-053- 055-063-065-067-069-073-075-089-091-097-099-101-107-109-113-117- 121-123-292340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHEMUNG CORTLAND ERIE FRANKLIN FULTON GENESEE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC009-013-015-021-023-027-033-035-047-051-065-081-083-105-111- 113-117-292340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC MD 610

2 weeks 5 days ago
MD 0610 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western North Texas into southwest and south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190... Valid 292255Z - 300030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190 continues. SUMMARY...Parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190 will likely be upgraded to a Tornado Watch within the hour. DISCUSSION...A cluster of right-moving supercells is tracking east-northeastward along a stationary boundary draped across western North TX -- with a history of producing very large hail up to 5 inches in diameter. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-northeastward along the boundary into the overnight hours, continuing to pose a risk of very large hail and severe wind gusts. Additionally, as the low-level jet strengthens amid moist/easterly low-level flow (upper 60s dewpoints), low-level hodographs will expand with substantial clockwise curvature (effective SRH upwards of 300 m2/s2). While front-parallel flow casts some uncertainty on mode evolution and ingestion of surface-based inflow, this environment will support an increasing tornado risk. Therefore, parts of WW190 will likely be upgraded to a Tornado Watch within the hour. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33550068 34040021 34739903 35049794 35029721 34869686 34409677 34009694 33739738 33289846 32939963 32910028 33050076 33550068 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 194

2 weeks 5 days ago
WW 194 TORNADO OK TX 292315Z - 300600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 194 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 615 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms including some embedded/semi-discrete supercells will continue to focus along a boundary, moving generally east-northeastward across the region this evening. This will likely have an increasing tornado risk this evening, with a continued large hail risk, and increasing damaging winds as potential MCS development occurs later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Sherman TX to 115 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...WW 191...WW 192...WW 193... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190 Status Reports

2 weeks 6 days ago
WW 0190 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 190 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610 ..WEINMAN..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 190 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-031-049-051-055-057-065-075-087-109-137-141-149- 300040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC023-033-075-081-101-103-105-107-115-125-135-151-153-155-169- 173-191-197-207-227-253-263-269-275-303-305-317-329-335-345-353- 371-383-415-417-431-433-441-443-447-461-487-300040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR BORDEN CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE CRANE CROCKETT CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190

2 weeks 6 days ago
WW 190 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 291900Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 190 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma West Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail are the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southeast of Midland TX to 40 miles east northeast of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 188...WW 189... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 191 Status Reports

2 weeks 6 days ago
WW 0191 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 191 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW MGW TO 30 ENE LBE TO 15 SSE DUJ TO 15 NW DUJ TO 20 WNW JHW. ..SPC..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...BTV...ALY...PBZ...CTP...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 191 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-009-011-015-023-029-033-035-037-041-043-045-049-051-053- 055-063-065-067-069-073-075-089-091-097-099-101-107-109-113-117- 121-123-292340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CAYUGA CHEMUNG CORTLAND ERIE FRANKLIN FULTON GENESEE HAMILTON HERKIMER JEFFERSON LEWIS LIVINGSTON MADISON MONROE NIAGARA ONEIDA ONONDAGA ONTARIO ORLEANS OSWEGO ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN TIOGA TOMPKINS WARREN WAYNE WYOMING YATES PAC009-013-015-021-023-027-033-035-047-051-065-081-083-105-111- 113-117-292340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 191

2 weeks 6 days ago
WW 191 SEVERE TSTM NY PA WV LE LO 291930Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 191 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern New York Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms will traverse the watch area through the afternoon and early evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of damaging winds gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Pittsburgh PA to 60 miles south southeast of Massena NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 188...WW 189...WW 190... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189 Status Reports

2 weeks 6 days ago
WW 0189 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 189 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW OWB TO 50 S BMG TO 55 SE IND. ..SPC..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 189 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-292340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON KYC027-091-163-292340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRECKINRIDGE HANCOCK MEADE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193

2 weeks 6 days ago
WW 193 SEVERE TSTM KY 292225Z - 300500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central and Eastern Kentucky * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 525 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will progress eastward across the region this evening with isolated wind damage as the main severe risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of Bowling Green KY to 40 miles south of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...WW 191...WW 192... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 6 days ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

2 weeks 6 days ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z The active fire weather pattern across the Southwest will temporarily abate for Day 3/Thursday as a troughing pattern shifts to the eastern U.S. A building upper-level ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds to much of the Intermountain West/Northwest on Day 4/Friday. As the Northwest warms up, a weak, embedded mid-level wave moving into the Desert Southwest interacting with residual frontal moisture could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to higher terrain of northern Arizona/north central New Mexico on Day 4. However, a lack of widespread fuel dryness precludes inclusion of dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Higher confidence still exists for hot, dry and breezy conditions across southern Arizona/New Mexico for Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday as trough and associated enhanced mid-level flow move through the region. A more powerful trough and associated mid-level jet max is expected to move into the western U.S. over the weekend (Days 5-6). This should bring a more broad fire weather threat to much of the Southwest, but increasing ensemble member spread from Day 6 onward introduces considerable uncertainty in wave translation through the region. As such, critical probabilities were withheld for early next week (Day 7-8/Monday-Tuesday) time frame. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192

2 weeks 6 days ago
WW 192 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 292050Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 192 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Northern Kentucky Southwest Ohio * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop across southern Indiana and shift east into southwest Ohio through this evening. Damaging gusts and isolated large hail will accompany this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Cincinnati OH to 50 miles southeast of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 188...WW 189...WW 190...WW 191... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

SPC MD 606

2 weeks 6 days ago
MD 0606 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...189... FOR SOUTHERN IL/IN INTO SOUTHWEST OH.
Mesoscale Discussion 0606 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...southern IL/IN into southwest OH. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188...189... Valid 292027Z - 292230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188, 189 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts will move from southern Illinois into southern Indiana the next 1-2 hours. Additional severe risk may redevelop into southwest Ohio this evening. DISCUSSION...A mature MCS continues to move from southern IL into southern IN this afternoon. This activity has sporadically produced damaging gusts and isolated hail over the last couple of hours, with a couple areas of line-embedded rotation also noted. These storms should maintain intensity as it moves east across a moderately unstable airmass with steepening low-level lapse rates continuing to support damaging wind potential across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189. By evening, this MCS is expected to approach southwest OH and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188. The airmass across this area has shown signs of recovery from a midday cluster of severe storms now approaching western PA. Temperatures have rebounded into the mid/upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. This area could support a continued severe risk into this evening. As such, watch clearance has not been recommended as redevelopment of new convection is possible. Likewise, the cluster moving into southern IN also may approach this area in the next 2-3 hours. ..Leitman.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 39028811 39978441 39828393 39468362 39168363 38878409 38558476 37958663 37678822 37808866 38618855 39028811 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC MD 607

2 weeks 6 days ago
MD 0607 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292035Z - 292230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms that are currently elevated may produce marginally severe hail. A watch is not anticipated in the short term, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Storms in central Oklahoma have remained elevated and sub-severe so far. The observed 18Z Norman sounding showed modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, but relatively weak buoyancy due to cloud cover/precipitation. This activity will generally move to the east/northeast behind an outflow boundary. Recent surface observations have shown some airmass modification/recovery in east-central Oklahoma where temperatures have warmed back into the low 70s. There is at least low potential that storms nearest to the outflow boundary could become near to surface based. A locally greater severe threat would be possible in that scenario. Overall, however, storms will primarily be capable of marginally severe hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts. ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34979457 34769485 34579564 34649648 34839687 35269723 36169746 36339747 36479716 36539624 36409425 35859399 35349438 34979457 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
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