WW 0190 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 190 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...LUB...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 190 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-031-049-051-055-057-065-075-087-109-137-141-149- 292140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC023-033-075-081-101-103-107-115-125-135-151-153-155-169-173- 191-197-207-227-253-263-269-275-303-305-317-329-335-345-353-383- 415-417-431-433-441-447-461-487-292140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR BORDEN CHILDRESS COKE COTTLE CRANE CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS ECTOR FISHER FLOYD FOARD GARZA GLASSCOCK HALL HARDEMAN HASKELL Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are occurring along the eastward progressing cold front in OH, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is occurring both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass has destabilized. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...Florida... Recent rainfall across the northern half of Florida has mitigated fire weather concerns in the short term. However, showers/thunderstorms and associated rainfall cores have been quite isolated across the southern Florida Peninsula. Fuels remain quite dry across the area with ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. As a Bermuda High slides southward, a drier air mass will filter into the state bringing east winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping below 30 percent in some locations across southwest Florida Wednesday. Elevated highlights were added to stress this fire weather threat. ...Far Southeastern New Mexico into West Texas... Latest model guidance consensus shows eastern extent of breezy and dry conditions pushing as far east as the Stockton Plateau as mid-level trough accelerates into the southern Plains Wednesday. Extension of Elevated highlights were warranted with the higher forecast confidence in place. Locally critical fire weather conditions including west winds of 20 mph and relative humidity around 10 percent are expected in some areas of West Texas although recent rainfall and green-up should attenuate potential wildfire spread. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough crossing the southern Rockies, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Here, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote breezy westerly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH west of a dryline. This will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions where fuels remain dry (west of areas that have received recent measurable rainfall). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0191 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0191 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to severe winds and hail. ...Synopsis... A mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley early Thursday will be followed by a second trough digging southeastward across the north-central CONUS. As this occurs, weak low pressure initially progged to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day, and then across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period. ...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over -- and just west of -- portions of the MRGL risk area at the start of the period, and this initial convection complicates the forecast with respect to areas where diurnal destabilization may be sufficient to fuel new/vigorous convective development. In general however, a midday/early afternoon increase in storms is expected across the Lower Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley, ahead of a slowly advancing cold front, and potentially in the vicinity of remnant outflow farther south into the Lower Mississippi Valley area. Modest shear is forecast across the lower Mississippi Valley area, and westward into Texas where a few later-afternoon storms may develop, which should limit overall risk to locally stronger storms. Hail/wind would be the primary risks. Farther north into the Midwest, stronger flow aloft is expected, but also likely weaker instability. While later inclusion of a SLGT risk area may be needed across a portion of this area, at this time uncertainty precludes that. Generally, pre-frontal convection developing during the afternoon may pose risk for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. Risk should gradually diminish during the evening as storms nocturnally weaken. ..Goss.. 04/29/2025 Read more

WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N ARG TO 10 E POF TO 20 NW CGI TO 15 NE BLV. ..LEITMAN..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-027-077-121-145-153-157-181-189-291940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLINTON JACKSON MARION PERRY PULASKI RANDOLPH UNION WASHINGTON MOC031-133-143-157-201-207-291940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY SCOTT STODDARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N ARG TO 10 E POF TO 20 NW CGI TO 15 NE BLV. ..LEITMAN..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-027-077-121-145-153-157-181-189-291940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLINTON JACKSON MARION PERRY PULASKI RANDOLPH UNION WASHINGTON MOC031-133-143-157-201-207-291940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID PERRY SCOTT STODDARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0189 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0189 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 189 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY 291830Z - 300100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Northwest Kentucky * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri will track eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles north of Carbondale IL to 35 miles north northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...WW 188... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1215 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with thunderstorm activity. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This activity will continue to track eastward through the period and intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas. A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for line embedded circulations. Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail. At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region. ...Lower MO/OH Valleys... Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities low. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 29 17:42:05 UTC 2025.

WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N BVX TO 35 NW POF TO 35 W FAM TO 15 ENE VIH. ..LEITMAN..04/29/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 187 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC075-121-135-291840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE RANDOLPH SHARP ILC003-005-027-051-077-119-121-133-145-153-157-163-181-189- 291840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BOND CLINTON FAYETTE JACKSON MADISON MARION MONROE PERRY PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR UNION WASHINGTON MOC017-023-031-035-093-099-123-133-143-157-179-181-186-187-189- 201-207-221-223-510-291840- MO Read more

WW 187 SEVERE TSTM AR IL MO 291355Z - 292000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southwest Illinois Southern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas will track eastward across the watch today. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Harrison AR to 20 miles south of Carbondale IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more