SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MN...NORTHERN IA...WESTERN WI...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST
TX AND SOUTHWEST OK...
...SUMMARY...
Multiple corridors of severe thunderstorms will continue this
evening from the Upper Midwest into the central and southern Plains.
Tornadoes, large hail, and severe gusts all remain possible,
including some strong-tornado potential.
...Upper Midwest...
Convection has generally evolved into a linear mode from northern IA
into southeast MN and western WI, though with occasional embedded
supercells noted. The environment farther south across IA and
downstream of the ongoing storms remains very favorable for
organized convection, with moderate to strong buoyancy and very
favorable low-level and deep-layer shear. Development of more
discrete storms is uncertain, however. There remains potential for a
couple sustained supercells to develop and pose a threat for all
severe hazards, including conditional strong-tornado potential.
Otherwise, the ongoing cluster will continue to pose a threat for
damaging winds, hail, and embedded tornadoes as it moves eastward
through the evening.
Farther west, a couple small supercells may continue in the vicinity
of the cold front this evening near the IA/MN border region, before
weakening later tonight.
...Northeast KS into northwest MO and vicinity...
A cluster of supercells is ongoing across northeast KS this evening,
with earlier reports of large to very large hail. Given the ongoing
clustering of storms, some upscale growth will be possible with time
this evening, with a threat of damaging wind and hail. Increasing
low-level flow with time and eastward extent will also support a
tornado threat with any supercells that can persist through the
evening.
...Southern Plains into southern KS/MO...
Widely scattered supercells have developed from northwest TX into
southwest OK, within a strongly unstable and favorably sheared
environment. These cells will continue to pose a threat of large to
very large hail and localized severe gusts through the evening.
There will also be a window of opportunity this evening for an
increasing tornado threat, including localized strong-tornado
potential, as a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet substantially
increases effective SRH. See MCD 592 for more information in this
area.
Additional storm development and eventual evolution of one or more
clusters will be possible later tonight from north TX into OK,
south-central/southeast KS, and possibly southern MO, due to the
increasing low-level jet and eventual approach of a cold front from
the north. The late-night convection could pose a continued threat
for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado for any storms
that can remain surface based.
..Dean.. 04/29/2025
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