WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-019-025-037-041-047-270240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC003-165-270240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GAINES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 175 TORNADO NM TX 262050Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the evening. Supercells capable of large to very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes will be the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Tucumcari NM to 45 miles south southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 177 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 177 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC103-135-301-329-371-389-461-475-495-270240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRANE ECTOR LOVING MIDLAND PECOS REEVES UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 177 SEVERE TSTM TX 262245Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 545 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will pose mainly a large hail risk through early/mid-evening across the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Wink TX to 40 miles southeast of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 175...WW 176... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SHV TO 15 E TXK TO 20 NNE DEQ TO 10 ESE FSM. ..HALBERT..04/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-027-057-061-073-097-099-103-109-113-127-270240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE POLK SCOTT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 176 TORNADO AR OK TX 262145Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Environment will remain sufficiently favorable for some supercell storms through at least early evening across the region, which includes some tornado potential. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Mcalester OK to 40 miles south of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 175... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts of western/central Arkansas and vicinity. ...Eastern NM into west/central TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based. Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will remain a threat with the strongest storms. Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. ...Western/central AR and vicinity... Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time. ...Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA... Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging winds, before storms weaken later this evening. ..Dean.. 04/27/2025 Read more

MD 0571 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...Far West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262216Z - 262345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed as a pair of supercells have developed along the dryline in the vicinity of the Trans-Pecos mountains. These storms will be capable of 2.00+ inch hail and 60-70 MPH wind gusts, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms have developed along a dryline in the vicinity of the Trans-Pecos mountains, with 2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE to the east, and 45-50 kts of deep layer shear. Given boundary perpendicular shear vectors, supercell storm mode is likely to be maintained into the early evening hours. Primarily straight-line hodographs should favor splitting of supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds, particularly with left splits. Some meager low-level curvature of the hodograph from forecast proximity profiles, along with ML LCL heights around 1100-1300 meters, could support tornado occurrence as well, especially as the nocturnal low-level jet increases low-level shear into the evening. However, the primary threat will be for 2.00+ inch hail and 60-70 MPH winds. ..Halbert/Guyer.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30030231 30250309 30650367 31140408 31720444 32050438 32310375 32390292 32330247 32160179 31860156 31310137 30880137 30430145 30210152 30040173 30030231 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 176 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 176 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC019-027-057-061-073-081-091-097-099-103-109-113-127-133- 262340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK COLUMBIA HEMPSTEAD HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE POLK SCOTT SEVIER OKC005-023-029-077-079-089-121-127-262340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CHOCTAW COAL LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA TXC037-387-262340- TX Read more

WW 176 TORNADO AR OK TX 262145Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Far Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Environment will remain sufficiently favorable for some supercell storms through at least early evening across the region, which includes some tornado potential. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Mcalester OK to 40 miles south of Hot Springs AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 175... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0175 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 175 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..04/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 175 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-019-025-037-041-047-262340- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY GUADALUPE LEA QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TXC003-165-262340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS GAINES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 175 TORNADO NM TX 262050Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon into the evening. Supercells capable of large to very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes will be the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Tucumcari NM to 45 miles south southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Southwest U.S. on Day 3/Monday into the Southern Plains Day 5/Wednesday. Stronger mid-level winds ahead of the trough along with downslope enhancement/drying off the higher terrain of the Northern Mexican Plateau is expected to linger over portions of Western Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Day 3/Monday, potentially into Day 5/Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities were maintained for Day 3/Monday and added for Day 4/Tuesday for this area. Critical probabilities were not introduced for Day 5/Wednesday as timing and southern extent of cold front intrusion into eastern New Mexico and far Western Texas remains uncertain. Ensemble model guidance shows fairly good member agreement in bringing another long-wave trough into the Western U.S. by Days 6-8, which could bring some needed precipitation to portions of the Desert Southwest. ...Far Northern Plains... Fire weather threat could emerge across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota by Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday. An upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. interior late next week should bring well above normal temperatures to much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, aiding in curing/drying fuels. However, upper and mid-level pattern does not appear conducive for strong downsloping events at this time and contingent on areas escaping appreciable rainfall in the short term. ...Florida Peninsula... A very dry fuelscape across the Florida Peninsula is expected to receive some relief by Day 3/Monday as a cold front and accompanying rainfall impact the state. Some areas could remain dry but winds and relative humidity are not expected to align for critical fire weather conditions by midweek (Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday) with more opportunities for precipitation late week. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z An upper-level trough will slowly translate eastward from the Southwest U.S. on Day 3/Monday into the Southern Plains Day 5/Wednesday. Stronger mid-level winds ahead of the trough along with downslope enhancement/drying off the higher terrain of the Northern Mexican Plateau is expected to linger over portions of Western Texas and southeastern New Mexico from Day 3/Monday, potentially into Day 5/Wednesday. 40 percent Critical probabilities were maintained for Day 3/Monday and added for Day 4/Tuesday for this area. Critical probabilities were not introduced for Day 5/Wednesday as timing and southern extent of cold front intrusion into eastern New Mexico and far Western Texas remains uncertain. Ensemble model guidance shows fairly good member agreement in bringing another long-wave trough into the Western U.S. by Days 6-8, which could bring some needed precipitation to portions of the Desert Southwest. ...Far Northern Plains... Fire weather threat could emerge across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota by Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday. An upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. interior late next week should bring well above normal temperatures to much of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, aiding in curing/drying fuels. However, upper and mid-level pattern does not appear conducive for strong downsloping events at this time and contingent on areas escaping appreciable rainfall in the short term. ...Florida Peninsula... A very dry fuelscape across the Florida Peninsula is expected to receive some relief by Day 3/Monday as a cold front and accompanying rainfall impact the state. Some areas could remain dry but winds and relative humidity are not expected to align for critical fire weather conditions by midweek (Days 4-6/Tuesday-Thursday) with more opportunities for precipitation late week. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary, temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region, which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for additional details. ..Moore.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex... Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today. Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest. Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening. Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts of west TX. Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon. Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with these storms. ...Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas... A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward, moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the Chesapeake Bay. Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Day 2 Update... A dynamic mid-level trough will translate eastward into the Intermountain West as a lee cyclone strengthens across the Central High Plains on Sunday. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will be in place beneath a strong mid-level jet supporting an increasing surface wind response over much of far eastern Arizona, New Mexico into eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. This is still expected to result in a belt of Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions across much of New Mexico. ...Eastern Colorado... Green-up continues across the Central/Southern High Plains but some dormant and receptive fuels remain across the area. Accelerating south-southwest winds coupled with relative humidity falling to around 10 percent, will combine with remaining receptive fuels to allow for an increased fire spread potential across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Sunday. Elevated highlights were extended into this area. ..Williams.. 04/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough moves over the Great Basin during the day Sunday, an accompanying southwesterly mid-level jet maximum is forecast to overspread the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Strong lee cyclogenesis at the surface east of the central Rockies, as well as deep boundary layer mixing beneath the jet core across the Southwest, will result in strong southwesterly surface winds and dry conditions from the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. These conditions will be responsible for a corridor of concern for Extremely Critical fire-weather across central and southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Central and Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... 00Z Ensemble guidance from the HREF suggests there is high confidence in widespread 30+ MPH winds along with the potential for single-digit relative humidity. Forecast sounding profiles suggest an ensemble mean mixing depth at or exceeding 3 km AGL / 600 mb, and ensemble minimum sustained winds exceed Extremely Critical criteria. With current ERC fuels guidance showing fuels exceeding the annual 90th percentile, conditions will be supportive of rapid wildfire ignition and spread. While low relative humidity and high winds will exist from northwest New Mexico into the Four Corners, as well as southeastern Colorado, fuels further north do not appear to be overly receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 26 19:43:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0568 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA ...CNTRL AND SRN MD...DE
Mesoscale Discussion 0568 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl/ern VA ...cntrl and srn MD...DE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261805Z - 262000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may continue to gradually develop through 3-5 PM EDT, with some accompanied by small hail and a few strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts. DISCUSSION...The initiation of widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development appears underway to the east of the Blue Ridge, where low-level lapse rates are steepening most substantively in response to insolation and mixing, in the wake of mid/high cloudiness and light rain still overspreading northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas. Through 19-21Z, the Rapid Refresh suggests that continued boundary-layer warming may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE as high as 1000 J/kg, within pre-frontal surface troughing across central Virginia, northeastward toward the Delmarva. Mid/upper-level lapse rates are likely to remain weak, as stronger cooling aloft lags to the northwest of the region. But, with some strengthening of westerly mid-level wind fields (to 30-35 kt around 500 mb), the environment may become conducive to small multi-cell clusters, accompanied by a few potentially damaging surface gusts which could approach severe limits. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37597908 38277867 39457706 39687595 39527547 38907501 38237530 37787597 37497656 37077765 37047899 37597908 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more