Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Great Plains... An upper trough over the southwestern U.S. early Sunday will develop east, becoming oriented from the central Rockies to the Lower CO Valley by Monday morning. As the trough develops east, a band of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread NM northeast to the Dakotas. A lee surface cyclone will deepen over western SD/NE, eventually shifting east into eastern SD by early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the Plains as a dryline sharpens over western portions of the Plains. An EML should limit diurnal thunderstorm activity, though an isolated supercell can not be ruled out somewhere along the dryline from western SD southward into west TX. As a 50-60 kt low-level jet develops overnight, elevated convection may develop near the surface low over parts of SD/ND. This activity could pose a risk for hail, but uncertainty precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of 50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX. Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI. Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening. With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX, convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends suggest capping will be less of a hindrance. ...Day 6/Tue - North TX into southern Lower MI and OH... Severe potential will continue into Tuesday, especially from the Mid-MS Valley into Lower MI/OH where the surface cold front is expected to continue pushing east/southeast through the period. While the upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will deamplify through the day, enhanced southwesterly flow atop the frontal boundary and a moist/unstable airmass should continue to support severe thunderstorm organization in the form of clusters and line segments. With southwest extent into AR/eastern OK/north TX, large-scale ascent will become weaker. However, persistent warm advection in the vicinity of a stalled boundary, and potential secondary surface low development should foster strong/severe thunderstorm activity. ...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu... OK/TX into the Lower MS Valley... Forecast guidance shows the southwestern U.S. upper trough ejecting across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley by the end of the forecast period. This could bring severe thunderstorm potential to these regions (OK/TX on Wed, ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley on Thu). However, several periods of thunderstorm activity leading into Wednesday and large surface pattern differences among medium range guidance precludes introduction of severe probabilities at this time. Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ABI TO 25 SE LTS TO 35 WNW CHK. ..BROYLES..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC141-240940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE TILLMAN TXC009-023-207-275-447-485-487-240940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR HASKELL KNOX THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 165 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 240420Z - 241000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1120 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms should continue east-southeastward into southwest Oklahoma and western North Texas early in the overnight, with some continued potential for severe-caliber wind gusts and sporadic hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Altus OK to 45 miles south southeast of Altus OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 164... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0538 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165... FOR NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165... Valid 240710Z - 240915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated potential for severe wind gusts is expected to continue over parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas late tonight into the early morning. The threat should become marginal, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely to the east of WW 165. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Frederick, Oklahoma shows a line of strong thunderstorms from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas. This line is located near the northwestern edge of a moist airmass, along a north-to-south axis of moderate instability. Ahead of the path of the convective line, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE from 500 to 1500 J/kg. In addition, water vapor imagery and RAP analysis suggest that a low-amplitude shortwave trough is moving through the southern and central Plains. Large-scale ascent, along with the instability and low-level warm advection, is supporting the convective line. The DYX WSR-88D VWP has some directional shear in the lowest 3 kilometers and has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. This should be enough to continue an isolated wind-damage threat along and ahead of the stronger parts of the line over the next couple of hours. However, the line will move eastward into weak instability, which will likely marginalize the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32969768 33049906 33299959 33599964 34279914 34989885 35059802 34499631 34009601 33459607 33029644 32969768 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas. ...Southern High Plains... An upper ridge will remain centered over the Great Plains on Saturday. However, an upper trough will shift east into the Southwestern U.S., and southwesterly flow aloft will increase across the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity by late afternoon into the overnight hours. At the surface, a stalled front from east-central NM into central OK will lift northward through the day and south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the High Plains. Midlevel lapse rates will steepen through the day, and a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected along a sharpening dryline across eastern NM into western TX. Some forecast guidance has quite a bit of ongoing convection Saturday morning, which lends to uncertainty regarding severe potential. Nevertheless, the overall environment will support severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. While coverage and location is uncertain, highest confidence in a few supercells is across eastern NM and perhaps into adjacent west TX. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will slowly advance eastward across the Southwest while another mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes tomorrow (Friday). Surface cyclone development is possible across portions of the Great Basin Friday afternoon, encouraging warm and dry southerly flow across eastern Arizona into central and southern New Mexico. Sustained 15-20 mph southerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and overspread dry fuels for several hours, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Dry conditions will also persist across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. While the surface wind field is expected to be too weak on a widespread basis to justify Elevated highlights, locally breezy conditions overspreading dry fuel beds will exacerbate any localized wildfire-spread potential that exists. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse New England and eject into the Atlantic as another mid-level trough amplifies along the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and overall cooler temperatures will overspread much of the northern U.S. while broad surface troughing and associated low-level moisture return becomes established from the Great Plains to the East Coast. As such, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over much of the U.S. today. Dry conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest, but surface wind fields should be too weak to necessitate Elevated highlights. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible across the western Florida Peninsula, where 30-40 percent RH will overlap with 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this area given dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 165 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC055-057-065-075-141-240640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN TXC009-023-155-197-207-275-447-485-487-240640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL KNOX THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10 to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30 kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could support sporadic strong gusts. ...OH Valley... An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... Midlevel winds across most of the CONUS will remain relatively weak today, the exceptions being from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and into the Southwest late. However, embedded disturbances associated with ares of thunderstorms will influence their nearby environments, with 35-45 kt speed at 500 mb. In the upper levels, the split flow regime is more apparent with stronger westerlies across the Southwest, Mexico, and the southern Plains, while rising heights and stronger anticyclonic flow shift into eastern Canada. At the surface, southerly winds around the western Atlantic high will maintain low-level moisture off the Gulf over the southern Plains and Southeast, again resulting in areas of moderate to strong instability from KS into West TX. A boundary will stretch roughly from southern Lower MI into KS through much of the day, with a surface trough from the OK/TX Panhandles south. ...Central and southern Plains... MLCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appear likely to develop today south of the synoptic front from southern KS into western OK and West TX. Some potential may exist for a marginal MCS over OK or northern TX, but this is uncertain. However, any residual boundaries that survive may provide a focus for new development later in the day. The greatest threat will develop from southern KS into West TX during the late afternoon and into the evening. Here, widely-scattered, slow-moving supercells are again expected, with primary risk damaging hail. Isolated severe hail is expected as well over eastern CO, where substantial instability will develop with steep lapse rates. A few cells may trek eastward across the KS border during the evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Synopsis... Midlevel winds across most of the CONUS will remain relatively weak today, the exceptions being from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and into the Southwest late. However, embedded disturbances associated with ares of thunderstorms will influence their nearby environments, with 35-45 kt speed at 500 mb. In the upper levels, the split flow regime is more apparent with stronger westerlies across the Southwest, Mexico, and the southern Plains, while rising heights and stronger anticyclonic flow shift into eastern Canada. At the surface, southerly winds around the western Atlantic high will maintain low-level moisture off the Gulf over the southern Plains and Southeast, again resulting in areas of moderate to strong instability from KS into West TX. A boundary will stretch roughly from southern Lower MI into KS through much of the day, with a surface trough from the OK/TX Panhandles south. ...Central and southern Plains... MLCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg appear likely to develop today south of the synoptic front from southern KS into western OK and West TX. Some potential may exist for a marginal MCS over OK or northern TX, but this is uncertain. However, any residual boundaries that survive may provide a focus for new development later in the day. The greatest threat will develop from southern KS into West TX during the late afternoon and into the evening. Here, widely-scattered, slow-moving supercells are again expected, with primary risk damaging hail. Isolated severe hail is expected as well over eastern CO, where substantial instability will develop with steep lapse rates. A few cells may trek eastward across the KS border during the evening. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/24/2025 Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 164 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE BGS TO 25 N CDS TO 25 WSW CSM. ..BROYLES..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC075-101-125-263-269-433-240640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHILDRESS COTTLE DICKENS KENT KING STONEWALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 164 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LBB TO 15 S PVW TO 45 W PVW TO 50 WSW AMA TO 30 SE AMA TO 10 WNW CSM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0537 ..DEAN..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC045-069-075-087-101-107-125-129-153-169-189-191-263-269-279- 303-305-345-369-433-437-240540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA HALE HALL KENT KING LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY PARMER STONEWALL SWISHER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 164 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 232230Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Oklahoma Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Relatively isolated severe storms should develop through early/mid-evening, particularly across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, but potentially also across the Texas South Plains. These storms may reach other parts of western Oklahoma later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to 55 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...WW 163... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0536 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... FOR TX TRANS-PECOS INTO PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...TX Trans-Pecos into parts of the Edwards Plateau Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162... Valid 240233Z - 240400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into late evening. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is ongoing this evening to the southeast of Fort Stockton. A gradual weakening trend has been noted over the last hour, potentially due to gradually increasing MLCINH with the onset of nocturnal cooling. However, favorable boundary-layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is supporting moderate to locally strong buoyancy (as noted on the 00Z MAF and DRT soundings), with MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Meanwhile, deep-layer shear (aided by a subtropical jet) remains favorable for organized convection. Some potential remains for an uptick in storm intensity through late evening, aided by increasing low-level southeasterly flow (as noted in recent VWPs from KDFX). Any notable uptick could be accompanied by at least a low-probability threat for all severe hazards, though it remains uncertain if organized convection can become reestablished within an increasingly capped environment. ..Dean.. 04/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31070248 31110138 31010048 30140044 29580077 29510107 29520148 29620221 29770290 30180282 31070248 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ITR TO 20 SW GLD TO 55 NNW GCK TO 25 ESE HLC. ..SQUITIERI..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-017-061-063-099-240240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS KSC055-057-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-119-129-135-171-175- 187-189-195-199-203-240240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE MEADE MORTON NESS SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ITR TO 20 SW GLD TO 55 NNW GCK TO 25 ESE HLC. ..SQUITIERI..04/24/25 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 163 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-017-061-063-099-240240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON PROWERS KSC055-057-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-119-129-135-171-175- 187-189-195-199-203-240240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE MEADE MORTON NESS SCOTT SEWARD STANTON STEVENS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 163 SEVERE TSTM CO KS 232050Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western Kansas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the late afternoon and evening across the watch area, with a few supercells possible. Large hail is the primary concern, however a tornado or two could occur later this evening as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of Goodland KS to 5 miles east of Elkhart KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more