SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Modest zonal flow pattern persists across the Plains states today, with only weak large scale forcing anticipated. However, strong heating across the High Plains, coupled with circulations along a diffuse dryline and forcing associated with the nocturnal low-level jet will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms from western KS into the TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening. The area of greatest concentration of storms will likely be over western KS, where model guidance shows greatest confidence in a strengthening low-level jet and some upper support. Storms should develop by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Large hail will be the main concern. Low-level moisture will be marginal, but enlarging hodographs by early evening could also support a risk of a few tornadoes. Farther south, thunderstorm coverage will be more widely scattered across the TX Panhandle into the Big Bend region. Nevertheless, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through the evening. ...Northeast KS... A small cluster of strong storms has developed this morning over central KS. Several morning CAM solutions suggest an increasing risk of thunderstorm development/intensification by mid-afternoon over northeast KS - in vicinity of a weak surface boundary. While this scenario is unclear, a few of these storms could pose a risk of large hail and gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast States... Strong daytime heating will aid in destabilization across much of GA/SC this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorm development expected. Winds aloft are weak and storms should be relatively disorganized. However, cool temperatures aloft will aid in a few robust updrafts - posing some risk of hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Thornton.. 04/23/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 23 13:19:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the southern/central Plains today and tonight, with large hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... Convective clusters have persisted through the early morning hours across parts of TX, aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection. This activity has generally weakened, but it could still pose some threat for mainly isolated gusty winds towards the ArkLaTex and Upper TX Coast. In its wake, a convectively overturned airmass will exist today over much of central TX, while modified low-level moisture will once again advect west-northwestward over the southern/central High Plains. A similar convective scenario to yesterday remains apparent, with generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow present over much of the southern/central Plains. Multiple low-amplitude perturbations should advance east-northeastward in this regime across the central CONUS through the period. At the surface, a front draped southwest to northeast over the central Plains and a dryline extending southward over the southern Plains should both serve as foci for convective initiation later today. Steep mid-level lapse rates are once again expected to be in place across the warm sector. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass in combination with these steep lapse rates should aid in the development of moderate to locally strong instability by mid afternoon. Weak low-level winds veering and gradually strengthening with height through mid/upper levels will foster around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, which should be adequate for modest convective organization. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to once again develop along both the front and dryline by mid to late afternoon. A mix of multicells and slow-moving supercells is anticipated, with associated threats for both severe/damaging winds and large hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded northeastward across KS and into far southern NE based on latest guidance trends showing greater coverage of potentially intense thunderstorms this afternoon/evening along and near the front. The potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into one or more clusters this evening remains uncertain owing to weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Even so, a strengthening low-level jet overnight may aid in convective longevity and a continued threat for isolated damaging winds. ...Upper Midwest... Daytime heating along with a plume of modest low-level moisture along/near a surface front should aid in the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear may support isolated hail and gusty winds with this activity through the early evening, before it eventually weakens with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southeast... Isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or damaging winds may occur with convection forecast to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of the Southeast along/south of a remnant surface front. Generally modest flow aloft and weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/23/2025 Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W HDO TO 30 NW BAZ TO 30 W TPL TO 15 NW SEP TO 20 ESE SPS. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-097-143-163-193-221-237-325-337-363-367-425-497-507- 230940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE COOKE ERATH FRIO HAMILTON HOOD JACK MEDINA MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL WISE ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 161 SEVERE TSTM TX 230500Z - 231200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A pair of convective lines will continue to progress eastward/southeastward over the next few hours. Some cellular development is possible between these two lines. Strong gusts will be the primary severe risk with these storms tonight, but some large hail is possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 125 miles south of Brownwood TX to 65 miles north northwest of Fort Worth TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 160... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 5-7/Sun-Tue -- Great Plains to the Midwest... Forecast guidance is in good agreement that a deepening upper trough over the western states will eject eastward across the Plains and Midwest early next week. Beginning Day 5/Sun, the upper trough will extend from the central Rockies to the Southwest, with a belt of strong southeasterly flow emerging over the central/southern High Plains Sunday night. Surface lee low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains Sunday afternoon, with the low moving into SD/NE by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow will transport ample moisture northward across the Plains and Mid-MO Valley on Sunday, with a sharpening dryline extending southward from western NE into western TX. Some severe potential could develop along the dryline and near the surface low/triple point. However, forecast soundings maintain strong capping and any convective development could be rather sparse. For now, this will preclude severe probabilities for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the upper trough will continue eastward, moving into the Plains by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the trough, a belt of strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend from OK into the Upper Midwest. A deepening surface low over SD will shift east/northeast through the period, with a trailing cold front shifting east/southeast across the Plains. Rich boundary layer moisture within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass and favorable shear parameter space will support an all-hazards severe weather episode across a fairly broad area from OK to MN/WI Monday afternoon into Monday night. Severe potential is likely to continue into Day 7/Tue, though some differences within medium range guidance with the evolution of the upper trough and key surface features does result in a bit more uncertainty compared to Monday, especially on the eastward extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, strong forcing atop a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward advancing cold front will continue to support severe potential from northeast Texas into Lower MI. Read more

MD 0524 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... FOR NORTH TEXAS...FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...North Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161... Valid 230632Z - 230830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat may continue for a couple more hours across parts of north Texas. Weather watch issuance downstream of WW 161 appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Frederick, Oklahoma shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms about 25 statute miles to the west of Wichita Falls, Texas. This line is located at the northwestern edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Ahead of the MCS, the RAP has MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg extending northward from the Texas Hill Country into parts of north Texas. The instability, along with large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough over northwest Texas, will help the line to be maintained over the next couple of hours. Downstream of the convection, the 07Z RAP forecast sounding at Wichita Falls has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth shows some directional shear in the boundary layer. This shear environment could be enough to maintain an isolated wind-damage threat over the next couple of hours. However, the longevity of the line may be negatively impacted by a capping inversion that is expected to rebuild over time. Also, outflow associated with the line has surged out ahead of the reflectivity, which could be problematic concerning a longer duration severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33509898 33099897 32859860 32669747 32689682 33049646 33429642 33789666 34029761 34089843 33869885 33509898 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0525 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 161... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0525 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...South-central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161... Valid 230716Z - 230915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and potential for severe gusts will likely continue for a couple more hours. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Weather watch issuance downstream of WW 161 may need to be considered. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar data from Laughlin Air Force Base shows a line of strong thunderstorms, with an intense supercell located at the southern end 60 statute miles to the east of Del Rio. This line is located along the northwestern edge of a moist airmass, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s. This line is near an axis of moderate instability. It is being supported by a shortwave trough that is moving through west-central Texas, evident on water vapor imagery. In addition, RAP analysis has an axis of steep mid-level lapse rates across southwest Texas, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be near 8 C/Km. This, in combination with about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear, evident on the WSR-88D VWP near Del Rio, will be favorable for supercells associated with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. A wind-damage potential will also exist. Although the severe threat may continue for another hour or two, the storms are expected to gradually weaken as a cap builds across south-central Texas. Weather watch issuance downstream of WW 161 remains uncertain. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29549889 29759951 29599987 29339998 29019997 28109942 27889881 28229819 28719815 29139839 29549889 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0161 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW HDO TO 45 N HDO TO 65 WNW AUS TO 20 NE BWD TO 35 ENE ABI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 161 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-031-035-053-093-097-099-133-143-163-193-221-237-259-281- 299-325-333-337-363-367-425-429-497-503-507-230840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BLANCO BOSQUE BURNET COMANCHE COOKE CORYELL EASTLAND ERATH FRIO HAMILTON HOOD JACK KENDALL LAMPASAS LLANO MEDINA MILLS MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER SOMERVELL STEPHENS WISE YOUNG ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Upper ridging will overspread the Plains on Friday as a deepening upper trough moves over the western U.S. Despite the building upper ridge, capping is expected to be weak, and strong daytime heating will likely erode any morning inhibition by early to mid-afternoon where stronger heating occurs. Some morning convection could be ongoing Friday morning over parts of KS/OK, but it is uncertain to what extent and exactly where this may be. A surface cold front is forecast to develop southward across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley, and impinge on northern OK and the TX Panhandle by late afternoon/early evening. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain a moist warm sector ahead of the front and to the east of a dryline extending southward across western TX. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but isolated thunderstorm activity is expected both along the dryline and ahead of cold front. Moderate instability could support robust updrafts, though vertically veering winds will remain rather weak through 700-500 mb. Nevertheless, around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes amid 1500-2500 J/kg could support organized cells. Elongated hodographs suggest large hail would be possible with any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Steepening low-level lapse rates also may support strong gusts. Confidence in storm coverage is somewhat low given the building upper ridge and weak forcing mechanisms, but at least an isolated severe storms risk appears likely, necessitating a Marginal (level 1 of 5) delineation for parts of OK/TX. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the California coastline while generally upper-ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are possible across parts of the Desert Southwest. However, the latest guidance consensus suggests that the surface wind field across Arizona into New Mexico will be too weak to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. Otherwise, another day of dry southeasterly winds will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential across western portions of the Florida Peninsula. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A broad but weak cyclonic upper flow regime will overspread the western CONUS as zonal flow aloft becomes established over the Northern Plains to the Northeast today. An embedded mid-level impulse will pivot around the cyclonic flow and track over the southern High Plains by afternoon, with dry downslope flow developing across southeast Arizona into Far West Texas as a low-level mass response. 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will promote conditions favorable for wildfire-spread, with Elevated highlights introduced where fuels are dry/unaffected by recent rainfall. Meanwhile, dry and breezy conditions are likely across western parts of the Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating. 10-15 mph sustained southeasterly winds will coincide with 30-40 percent RH atop dry fuels, warranting Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0160 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW SPS TO 5 SSW LTS TO 20 ESE FSI. ..BROYLES..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 160 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC065-141-230740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-230740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma. Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Central/Southern Plains... Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed convection evolves into the Day 2 period. Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains. While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35 kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds. With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX, potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities across an expanded area. ..Leitman.. 04/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are forecast over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Texas today and tonight, with damaging winds and hail possible. ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will exist today with the northern storm track from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. To the south, stronger flow aloft will exist over much of Baja CA and Mexico, and across the Rio Grande Valley in TX. For much of the central CONUS, cool midlevel temperatures will persist, with modest westerly flow and marginal overall shear. At the surface, a trough will deepen during the day over West TX, with southerly winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. The diurnally destabilizing and uncapped air mass will support clusters of storms from KS into northern OK, and along the surface trough over West TX. Sporadic strong storms will also be possible across North TX where instability will remain favorable. Farther north, a weak surface trough will provide a focus from IA into WI and toward Lake MI, with marginal hail possible. Elsewhere, widely scattered strong storms are expected over parts of the Southeast, with stronger instability over eastern GA and SC supporting locally strong gusts. ...OK...North TX...ArkLaTex... Clusters of storms may be ongoing over southern OK and North Texas early today as activity moves in from the northwest from the previous night. Heating ahead of any such activity will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE with weak but veering winds with height favoring south/east propagation. Locally strong gusts appear to be the main threat with any such activity. ...Central and southern Plains... Heating will lead to MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg from western KS into parts of West TX this afternoon. Heating near the surface trough should support isolated activity over TX with slow-moving storms producing large hail. Northern areas from western KS into northwest OK may experience one or more clusters or an MCS as storms over far southeast CO produce outflow and move into KS and the Panhandles though the evening. ...IA into southern WI and toward western/northern lower MI... Areas of heating along with a plume of 50s F dewpoints near the surface trough will support scattered storms during the day. Steep lapse rates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support marginal hail. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 Read more