SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern Plains... A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread convection across KS, while other place morning convection further south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk (strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains along the dry line. Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage. ..Leitman.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Neutral to weak height rises are forecast across most of the CONUS today as stronger westerlies have relaxed and lifted north to near the international border. As a result, slower-moving disturbances and weaker shear will be observed across higher-instability regions. Even so, isolated-scattered robust thunderstorms are expected later today along the western-northern periphery of moisture return, mainly across the Plains. Latest model guidance suggests 850mb flow will increase across western TX into southern KS as a lee trough gradually strengthens across this portion of the Plains. While moisture is somewhat scant at this time, PW values will gradually increase and modest instability should develop by peak heating near the sharpening dry line. Very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for robust updrafts as moisture returns to this corridor of increasing low-level convergence. Forecast soundings suggest adequate 0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts and isolated supercells are possible. Large hail and gusty winds are the primary concerns. Any storms that form over KS may have some longevity as a weak disturbance could aid this activity into the overnight hours. ...Elsewhere... Large-scale pattern favors a zone of low-level confluence from the lower Sabine River Valley into the central Gulf States today. While deep-layer flow is not strong, multi-cell updrafts/clusters are expected within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates. Gusty winds and some hail are the primary risks. Another region where a few strong storms are expected is along the weak surface front in the lee of the Appalachians across NC. Diurnal heating will prove instrumental in convective development, and forecast shear is more than adequate for organized multi-cell updrafts capable of generating some wind, and perhaps some hail. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across portions of Iowa later tonight, but hail should generally remain below severe levels. ...01z Update... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over the northern High Plains. This feature is shifting east as a 500mb speed max translates across SD toward northern IA. Scattered weak convection is noted ahead of this feature, arcing from eastern SD into northeast NE. LLJ should increase across eastern NE/western IA this evening in response to the short wave, and a corridor of low-level warm advection should aid additional convection downstream. Forecast soundings suggest elevated buoyancy will increase such that robust updrafts are possible. While steep lapse rates favor hail production, instability may be a bit too weak to warrant more than marginally severe hail. For these reasons will not introduce severe probabilities ..Darrow.. 04/22/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 21 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 21 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A gradual amplification of upper-level troughing is expected across the western CONUS this week. The primary fire weather threat will be across the Southwest as dry, southwest flow gradually increases through the weekend. Complementary ridging across the eastern U.S. will provide a more efficient mechanism for moist return flow to the Great Plains and Midwest. The relatively rich boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies interacting with a nascent low pressure system forming day 4/Thursday will promote widespread rainfall across much of the Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and Northeastern U.S. by day 6/Saturday as the low translates eastward. ...Southwest... Synoptic setup with amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced southwest flow will support increasing fire weather concerns across much of the Southwest. Effects on fuels from recent rain and higher elevation snow mainly north of the I-40 corridor will wane as dry conditions settle back into the region. At least Elevated fire weather conditions are expected each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend, with corresponding Critical probabilities where forecast confidence is higher based on latest model guidance consensus. ...Southern Georgia and Florida... Fire weather concerns will remain across the Florida Peninsula as a subtropical high to the east provides persistent east-southeast winds across the state through early next week. Marine influence will mitigate fire weather concerns along the Florida Atlantic Coast but central and western Florida could see overlapping of sufficient winds, low daytime relative humidity of 30-40 percent and persistently dry fuels to promote at least Elevated fire weather threat day 3 through day 5. Drying and curing of available fuels across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia will continue through the week but winds are not expected to be particularly strong with no Critical probabilities added. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...20Z Update... The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail are the primary risks. ...20Z Update... The Marginal risk in the Lower Great Lakes was trimmed behind the eastward-moving frontal band of convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track and minimal changes were made with this update. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference MCDs #512 and #513. ..Weinman.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis and satellite imagery show a cold front sweeping eastward across OH. Considerable cloud cover is present ahead of the front, but a narrow corridor of heating immediately ahead of the front will allow a period of heating - promoting scattered thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is limited with dewpoints only in the 50s, and forecast soundings show CAPE values generally below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong low and mid-level winds and considerable vertical shear will promote a risk of a few organized/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to upcoming MCD #511 for further details. ...LA/MS/AL/GA/TN... The aforementioned surface cold front extends southeastward across west TN. A relatively moist air mass is present ahead of the front from southeast LA into parts of MS/AL and middle/east TN, although considerable cloud cover will limit heating. Most 12z models suggest scattered thunderstorms will form in this zone during the late afternoon and evening, with sufficient CAPE for a few robust updrafts. Low and mid level winds are not particularly strong, and large scale forcing is weak. This should limit the overall organization and severity of storms, but a few cells may produce gusty winds and hail. ...SD... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over WY approaching SD. Forcing ahead of this feature will likely lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across eastern WY and western/central SD this afternoon and evening. There is some chance that a storm or two could produce locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

MD 0513 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NWRN NE INTO S CNTRL SD
Mesoscale Discussion 0513 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Areas affected...parts of nwrn NE into s cntrl SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211801Z - 212100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity is beginning to develop this afternoon. Although this is likely to remain weak in intensity, it may still contribute to a few locally strong to briefly severe strength surface gusts by 2-4 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Within larger-scale mid-level troughing spreading across and east of the northern Rockies, it appears that one embedded speed maximum (50+ kt around 500 mb) will continue an east-northeastward propagation from east central Wyoming toward south central South Dakota this afternoon. Despite limited low-level moisture, insolation beneath cold mid-level air (including temperatures cooling below -20C around 500 mb) is contributing to weak destabilization of the boundary layer, which continues to warm and deepen with insolation across the Sand Hills of Nebraska into the high plains south and east of the Black Hills. Deepening high-based convective development is underway, with lightning already noted in activity as far south as the Scottsbluff NE vicinity. This probably will continue, with some additional intensification while spreading eastward through mid to late afternoon. As boundary-layer mixing/deepening progresses, the sub-cloud environment will become increasingly conducive to the downward transfer of momentum associate with the stronger mid-level flow and the negatively buoyant downdrafts, contributing to potential for a few gusts in excess of 50 kt. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 44290180 44330078 43749980 42810038 41600227 41460368 43030383 43290285 44150233 44290180 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0512 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTH-CENTRAL TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0512 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Areas affected...central/southern Mississippi...central/northern Alabama...south-central Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211728Z - 212000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for gusty winds and hail through the afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across a cold front extending through the southeastern states this morning. Ahead of this feature, breaks in the cloud cover have allowed daytime heating and modest MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg to develop. Flow across this region is fairly weak, though some deep layer shear 20-35 knots is observed in surface objective analysis. As storms move north and eastward this afternoon, potential for a few areas of gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Severe potential appears too limited for watch issuance to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 32359100 34078895 34988766 35488672 35598618 35568570 35518555 35418525 34988505 32058795 30378982 29949059 30199162 30559195 30949207 32359100 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes were made, see previous discussion below. Diffuse southwest winds amid a dry air mass across the Southwestern U.S. is expected Tuesday, with primary affect of facilitating drying/curing of fuels across the region. However, widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph are not expected under weak zonal flow aloft. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes were made, see previous discussion below. Diffuse southwest winds amid a dry air mass across the Southwestern U.S. is expected Tuesday, with primary affect of facilitating drying/curing of fuels across the region. However, widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph are not expected under weak zonal flow aloft. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relatively zonal upper-flow pattern is expected over the CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). At the surface, gradual moisture return is expected over the Plains into the Mississippi Valley while dry conditions persist over the Interior West to the High Plains. However, no significant overlaps of widespread dry and windy conditions are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday, so quiescent wildfire-spread conditions should be the norm. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado. However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have significant implications on warm sector destabilization and northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas, Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central and southern High Plains on Wednesday. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Persistent southwesterly flow will be present across the western and central United States on Wednesday. This will result in continue lee surface troughing across the southern and central High Plains. A stalled frontal boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High Plains. Continued low-level moisture advection should destabilize the warm sector east of the dryline. Any weak perturbations within the southwesterly flow aloft should provide ample forcing for storm development along the dryline within a mostly uncapped airmass (per 12Z GFS forecast soundings). If this GFS solution verifies, a slight risk will probably be needed across much of the dryline from the Trans Pecos to eastern Colorado. However, the ECMWF has an extensive area of precipitation along the front in Kansas Wednesday morning which expands across much of the state and into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. This would have significant implications on warm sector destabilization and northward moisture transport on Wednesday. Due to this uncertainty have kept probabilities at Level 1/Marginal at this time from the Texas Panhandle northward. Farther south, across West Texas, Confidence in a moderately unstable, uncapped airmass along the dryline is higher. Therefore, a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been added in this area for the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

MD 0511 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NERN OH...NWRN PA...SWRN NY STATE
Mesoscale Discussion 0511 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Areas affected...parts of nern OH...nwrn PA...swrn NY State Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211647Z - 211915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strengthening low-topped thunderstorm development appears probable by 3-5 PM EDT, including isolated to widely scattered supercells accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and at least some risk for a tornado. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Within the warm sector of an occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the upper peninsula of Michigan, boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing within at least a narrow corridor across eastern Ohio into the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Closely trailing an initial band of weak mid-level warm advection driven convection, which has contributed to saturation of initially dry lower/mid-tropospheric profiles, boundary-layer moisture characterized by dew points near 60f, is rapidly advecting northeastward. This is occurring beneath the leading edge of a mid-level dry slot, which is allowing for increasing insolation. The NAM and Rapid Refresh suggest that this will contribute to mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, prior to the passage of the cold front. This is also occurring beneath a 30-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet axis, where forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs may include modest clockwise curvature of the shear vector with height by peak destabilization. As mid/upper forcing for ascent (downstream of the base of a negatively tilted short wave advancing toward the region) supports deepening convective development, there appears a window of opportunity for scattered low-topped supercell development by 19-21Z. This may be accompanied by a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and at least potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 42887905 42497783 41857867 40827995 40408114 40938153 41898069 42887905 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mostly zonal pattern will be in place across the CONUS with multiple embedded weak shortwave troughs on Tuesday. One such trough which is forecast to move across New Mexico during the afternoon may result in some weak lee troughing and support the potential for isolated to scattered severe storms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon. ...Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will advect northward across West Texas ahead of a dryline Tuesday morning. Strong surface heating will lead to moderate to strong destabilization along and ahead of the dryline. Forecast soundings show a weakly capped airmass which should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as weak forcing from the mid-level trough overspreads the dryline. 30 to 35 knots of shear should support high-based, slow-moving supercells with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat may also exist where better low-level moisture is present, farther south, and where intersecting boundaries could enhance low-level vorticity ingestion. Upscale growth may eventually occur with one or more MCSs moving east into the evening and overnight hours, supported by a modestly enhanced low-level jet. ...Northern Panhandle into Kansas... A surface front is forecast to extend across Kansas and into the OK/northern TX Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon. Only modest moisture recovery will occur this far north, but it may be sufficient for moderate instability along the front by mid-afternoon. 25 to 30 knots of shear will support some storm organization. Very steep lapse rates and a relatively dry profile will support the potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. ...IA/WI/IL... A stalled frontal boundary will be in place across the Mid-MO Valley into southern WI on Tuesday. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail or damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will move southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height, support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. In addition, any storms which interact with the sea breeze could have locally enhanced updrafts and a periodically greater large hail/damaging wind threat. ..Bentley.. 04/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z A passing short wave over the Central Rockies will enhance dry, downslope flow over the Central High Plains today where minimal precipitation has fallen. Elevated highlights were extended into northeastern Colorado where a more receptive fine fuel environment is still likely. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z A passing short wave over the Central Rockies will enhance dry, downslope flow over the Central High Plains today where minimal precipitation has fallen. Elevated highlights were extended into northeastern Colorado where a more receptive fine fuel environment is still likely. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the East Coast as a second trough traverses the Northern Plains today. Surface lee troughing is expected across the central High Plains as a mass response to the passing of the Northern Plains trough, resulting in dry downslope flow. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH over much of the Central High Plains. Elevated highlights are in place from far northeast New Mexico into central Nebraska, where fuels are dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more