WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N HDO TO 60 E JCT TO 40 SE BWD. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC265-299-201040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KERR LLANO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0153 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UMN TO 10 W SGF TO 45 NNW SGF. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC043-059-067-077-105-153-167-209-213-225-229-201040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE OZARK POLK STONE TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 153 SEVERE TSTM MO 200725Z - 201300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Missouri * Effective this Sunday morning from 225 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms will spread northeastward this morning across parts of southwest Missouri. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat with this convection, although a brief tornado or two may also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southeast of Monett MO to 40 miles northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...WW 151...WW 152... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N DEQ TO 35 SSE MLC TO 15 ESE DUA TO 10 N GYI TO 35 NNE DUA TO 10 ESE MLC TO 15 SE RKR TO 40 ESE FYV TO 20 S UMN. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC009-015-071-083-101-127-201040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CARROLL JOHNSON LOGAN NEWTON SCOTT OKC005-013-201040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 152 TORNADO AR OK TX 200430Z - 201200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 152 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-Central and Northwest Arkansas Eastern and Southeast Oklahoma Central and North Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1130 PM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to progress east-northeast across the Watch area tonight. The severe risk, including the potential for a few tornadoes, will likely focus with supercells and bowing line segments. A strong tornado or two remains possible due to a moist and strongly sheared environment expected to persist through tonight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Harrison AR to 25 miles east southeast of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...WW 150...WW 151... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude southwesterly flow regime will prevail for much of the Day 4-8 period across portions of the central and eastern U.S., with a mean upper trough persisting across the western states. Persistent south/southeasterly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will result in northward transport of rich boundary-layer moisture across the southern and parts of the central Plains through at least Day 6/Fri. Forecast guidance suggests weak shortwave impulses may float through modest southwesterly flow Days 4-5/Wed-Thu, perhaps providing some support for isolated to scattered thunderstorm potential across the warm sector over TX/OK/KS. Given a moist and unstable airmass, at least some severe potential will exist. However, where exactly severe potential may develop Day 4-5/Wed-Thu is uncertain given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and absence of any substantial surface cyclogenesis, coupled with modest deep-layer flow. This precludes 15 percent probabilities at this time, though outlook areas could become necessary in later outlooks as smaller-scale features become better resolved. A period of weak upper ridging may spread across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Days 6-7/Fri-Sat ahead of a more substantial upper trough developing over the western U.S. This may limit severe potential late in the week before the western upper trough ejects east toward the end of the forecast period. Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW BWD TO 15 SSW SPS. ..BROYLES..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-429-503-200840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN STEPHENS YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude west/southwest flow regime is expected across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will be maintained across the western U.S. while a belt of stronger westerly flow envelops the north-central and northeast U.S. where a pair of modest shortwave upper troughs will migrate east through the period. At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow over the Gulf and southern Plains will transport modified Gulf moisture northward across TX/OK/KS. ...Western TX/OK into southern KS... Large scale ascent is expected to remain somewhat nebulous across the region on Tuesday. However, various forecast models suggest a weak impulse may migrate across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Tuesday afternoon into evening atop the moistening boundary layer. Modest west/southwesterly flow and strong surface heating also may allow for weak lee low development across the southern High Plains, and the development of a dryline extending from the OK/TX Panhandles southward through western TX. A stalled surface boundary is also forecast to extend across central KS. These boundaries may provide focus for isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will reside across the region, aiding in diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg possible. Additionally, forecast guidance indicates an 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop during the evening. NAM forecast soundings suggest at least weak capping between 850-700 mb may persist, though the GFS is much more mixed with a weaker cap. Given the weak forcing regime, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. Nevertheless, a few organized thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the evening hours, with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts, appear possible and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been included. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the Northeast as a second mid-level trough ejects into the northern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Accompanying surface lows over the north-central and northeastern CONUS will encourage moisture return from the central Plains to the East Coast. However, given surface lee troughing along the central High Plains, dry downslope flow is expected tomorrow afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15-20 percent RH for several hours tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been added where the aforementioned meteorological surface conditions may overspread areas that have received minimal rainfall in the past week, allowing fine fuels to support some wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0498 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 152... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0498 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Far Southwest Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 152... Valid 200622Z - 200715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 152 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and tornadoes will move across eastern Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas over the next few hours. The threat is expected to eventually affect far southwest Missouri, where weather watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Tulsa shows a north-to-south oriented severe line segment across eastern Oklahoma. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. Near the moist axis, an axis of instability is analyzed by the RAP with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg range. Co-located with the instability axis, the RAP is analyzing a 50 to 60 knot 700 mb jet from northeast Texas into southeast Oklahoma. This line of storms is located near the nose of this jet max. Short-term model forecasts strengthen the jet max and move it into eastern Oklahoma over the next few hours. This will provide lift and strong shear favorable for severe maintenance. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Fort Smith has 0-6 km shear around 65 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 550 m2/s2. This will continue to support a QLCS with embedded rotating elements. These stronger storms will be associated with severe wind gusts, and potentially tornadoes. The threat is expected to persist for several more hours. The line should eventually move into northwest Arkansas and far southwest Missouri where instability will be more limited. ..Broyles.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36759496 36469540 36109556 35429576 34399591 34119581 34019538 34419453 35089380 35649329 35999305 36279305 36629323 36809384 36759496 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498 ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-101-127-131-143-200740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-041-061-063-069-077-079-091-095-097- 101-107-111-121-127-135-145-200740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DRT TO 25 WSW JCT TO 20 NNW BWD. ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-083-137-171-265-267-299-307-319-327-411-465-200740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN COLEMAN EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD SAN SABA VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 151 TORNADO TX 200300Z - 201000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 151 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest into Central Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1000 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to intensify and move from west to east across the Watch area tonight. The warm sector environment will support the possibility for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles southwest of San Angelo TX to 80 miles east northeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148...WW 149...WW 150... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BWD TO 25 E ABI TO 10 W SPS. ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-059-429-503-200740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CALLAHAN STEPHENS YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 150 SEVERE TSTM TX 200250Z - 201000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West into Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 950 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A intensifying band of thunderstorms is forecast to move from west to east across the Watch area tonight. Large hail and severe gusts are possible with the more intense thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles northeast of Abilene TX to 15 miles northwest of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148...WW 149... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more