SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the Midwest as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Northeast today, encouraging deep-layer offshore flow along the New England coastline. While the overall synoptic pattern does not favor widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential across the CONUS, a few regional concerns for Elevated conditions do exist. Somewhat dry southerly return flow over portions of the Northern Plains may promote 15-20 mph sustained winds amid 25-30 percent RH this afternoon. Some wildfire-spread potential exists wherever dry fuel beds are present. Next, dry southeasterly flow will continue across western parts of the Florida Peninsula, with Elevated highlights continued across this region given 15 mph wind speeds coinciding with 25-35 percent RH atop dry fuels by afternoon. Lastly, 15-20 mph northwesterly surface flow will overlap with 25-40 percent RH across portions of New England by afternoon peak heating. Given an overall lack of heavy rainfall in this area in the past week, it is not out of the question for finer fuels to respond accordingly and support some potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498 ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-101-127-131-143-200740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-021-023-029-041-061-063-069-077-079-091-095-097- 101-107-111-121-127-135-145-200740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MAYES MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W DRT TO 25 WSW JCT TO 20 NNW BWD. ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 151 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-083-137-171-265-267-299-307-319-327-411-465-200740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN COLEMAN EDWARDS GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD SAN SABA VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 151 TORNADO TX 200300Z - 201000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 151 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest into Central Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1000 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to intensify and move from west to east across the Watch area tonight. The warm sector environment will support the possibility for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to large hail and severe gusts with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles southwest of San Angelo TX to 80 miles east northeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148...WW 149...WW 150... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW BWD TO 25 E ABI TO 10 W SPS. ..GLEASON..04/20/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 150 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-059-429-503-200740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CALLAHAN STEPHENS YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 150 SEVERE TSTM TX 200250Z - 201000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West into Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 950 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A intensifying band of thunderstorms is forecast to move from west to east across the Watch area tonight. Large hail and severe gusts are possible with the more intense thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles northeast of Abilene TX to 15 miles northwest of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148...WW 149... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop eastward to the northern Plains. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS Valleys/Southeast TX... A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts. The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized updrafts, precluding severe probabilities. ...Northern Plains... Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into far southeast Iowa and Illinois. A strong tornado and damaging wind potential will exist from central Arkansas into central Missouri. ... Synopsis ... A seasonably strong mid-level low will eject from the southern Rockies/west Texas northeast toward the western Great Lakes on Sunday. As the mid-level low impinges on the western periphery of the Bermuda High the increasing height gradient will result in the development of 90-100 knot mid-level jet across northeast Oklahoma by late morning. This jet will slowly weaken as it moves northeast through the day. A surface cyclone will deepen through the day as it also lifts northeast from Oklahoma toward Wisconsin. An attendant cold front to the south of this low will push east through Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas during the afternoon, and the attendant warm front will lift north into northern Missouri and central Iowa. Increasing southerly low-level flow, including a 50-60 knot low-level jet, will advect low 60sF dewpoints into northern Missouri and mid 60sF dewpoints as far north as southern-to-central Missouri. Despite ongoing convection across much of Missouri and perhaps northern Arkansas at the start of the period, modest heating and increasing low-level moisture during the early afternoon should result in MUCAPE between 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg ahead of the surface cold front, most-likely across south-central Missouri. Storms should develop along the front during the early afternoon and progress east with the front. Forecast wind fields support a couple of strong tornadoes either within isolated storms or within bowing segments. As storms grow upscale during the afternoon, the severe wind threat will increase, especially given the strength of the low-level flow. The severe threat should peak during the late afternoon before beginning an overall weakening trend into the evening hours as the mid-level low pulls away from the better moisture/instability. ..Marsh/Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 Read more

MD 0493 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeast Pennsylvania and northeast Maryland Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 200243Z - 200415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts will accompany an eastward moving MCS over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A rapidly eastward propagating, likely cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured severe/damaging gusts (some exceeding 65 kts), persists along the PA/MD border. The 00Z observed IAD sounding depicts a relatively dry boundary layer in the general area, suggesting that deep-layer evaporative cooling is contributing to a deep/strong cold pool, which is likely supporting both MCS longevity, and severity of the corresponding severe wind swath. However, decreasing lightning trends raises questions as to how long this MCS will persist given weak to modest synoptic forcing, with longevity dependent on cold pool maintenance. Nonetheless, as long as the MCS persists, strong to potentially severe gusts remain possible. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39447672 39537694 39727698 39947678 39947665 39987619 39837556 39587542 39377562 39337612 39447672 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

MD 0494 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of north Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200310Z - 200415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues across southern parts of Tornado Watch 149. A brief, short-term uptick in tornado potential is possible with supercells merging with a baroclinic boundary. DISCUSSION...Three supercells are currently tracking northeastward across portions of north TX, west of the DFW metroplex. The Parker County supercell has a history of tornadoes, and tornado potential will continue with both of these storms over the next few hours. In the next 1-2 hours, these storms are poised to merge with a baroclinic boundary, which has encouraged other storms to merge into an MCS. With the boundary merger, a localized, brief uptick in tornado potential may be realized, and a strong tornado may occur. Thereafter, the storms will merge into the MCS and either become embedded supercells, or LEWPs/bowing segments, with some tornado threat persisting, though severe gusts will also be a concern. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32359842 32989820 33399791 33709757 33639716 33299709 32789737 32519757 32289805 32359842 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0495 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 149... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 149... Valid 200334Z - 200500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across northern portions of Tornado Watch 149 in southeastern OK. DISCUSSION...A tornadic QLCS has materialized across portions of southeast OK, with a tornadic debris signature recently observed over Ada, OK. This parent circulation (possibly an embedded supercell mesocyclone), as well as multiple other pronounced mesovortices, should continue to track eastward across southeast OK over the next few hours. These storms continue to be preceded by a moist boundary layer and strong low-level shear (given the presence of a southerly 40+ kt low-level jet per 02Z mesoanalysis data). As such, tornado potential will continue with this QLCS, as also suggested by some of the latest Warn-on-Forecast output. A strong tornado remains possible. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33859716 34609680 35049645 35219585 35089548 34689539 34199552 33919586 33829620 33769678 33859716 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0496 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Northeast/Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 200339Z - 200445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon across portions of northeast and eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Intense low-level warm advection has developed across eastern OK into northwest AR, per latest VAD profiles from INX/SRX. 0-3km SRH is impressive across this region as the LLJ is strengthening into this area. Over the last few hours, an elongated MCS has matured across ww159, and several long-lived supercells, with tornadoes at times, are embedded along a corridor from Parker County TX to Hughes County OK. Boundary-layer air mass is gradually recovering across this region with lower 60s surface dew points north of I40 into northwest AR. Severe threat is expected to increase across this area over the next several hours as the upstream MCS spreads into this region, but isolated supercells are also likely within the warm-advection zone. New Tornado Watch is warranted across this area. ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35459643 36139555 36409433 36009384 34749487 35459643 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0151 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0150 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong tornadoes will be possible this evening into tonight across north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Elsewhere, very large hail will be possible late tonight across west Texas as additional thunderstorms develop. ... 01Z Update ... The major change to this update is to introduce an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for tornadoes across north-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Here, surface dewpoints into the mid 60sF along, southeast surface winds, and an increasing low-level jet will yield an increasingly favorable environment for a couple of strong tornadoes through the evening and into the overnight hours. The observed 00Z RAOB from Dallas/Fort Worth is indicative of this kind of environment with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH of 380 m2/s2. Additional thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind threat should redevelop/continue into tonight across portions of west Texas as the main upper-level low begins to eject into the Plains. ..Marsh.. 04/20/2025 Read more

MD 0487 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192329Z - 200100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. All severe hazards are possible, though tornado potential is largely dependent on efficient surface-based inflow. A WW issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Increasing WAA and low-level southerly flow is underway over the Red River vicinity, with the intensity and coverage of storms also increasing with the approach of a 500 mb jet streak. A supercell structure has recently intensified and produced a tornado along a baroclinic boundary in Jack County, TX, and this storm (along with others that can intensify) are preceded by the terminus of a 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet. In addition to increasing buoyancy downstream of these storms, low-level shear is also increasing, with the FWS VAD depicting modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Any storms that can mature and progress in this environment will be capable of producing severe hail/wind. Additional tornadoes may also be possible if storms can remain surface-based, and maintain relatively unimpeded inflow. Given the increasing severe threat, a WW issuance may be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33059786 33679790 34429772 34829706 34899629 34709569 34069537 33409553 32909601 32549669 32369716 32309785 32689796 33059786 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0488 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147... Valid 200011Z - 200145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147 and Tornado Watch 148. Severe hail appears to be the main threat in the short term, though a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out, particularly in Tornado Watch 148. DISCUSSION...Several supercells are training along a baroclinic boundary across southwestern into central TX, with a history of producing severe hail up to 2 inches in diameter, as also shown by recent MRMS mosaic radar data. Ample buoyancy (e.g. 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) amid strong deep-layer shear should continue to support severe hail with these storms over the next few hours. Many of these storms appear to be undercut by a southward-sagging baroclinic boundary, which has succeeded at impeding adequate surface-based inflow for better tornado potential so far. However, with time, these storms are expected to pivot eastward into the warm-sector, where a preceding southerly low-level jet continues to intensify. Regional VADs across central into northern TX also show low-level hodographs becoming larger and more curved. As such, a couple of tornadoes remain possible with any storms that manage to cross the baroclinic boundary into the warm sector. Later this evening, storms may eventually merge into one or more MCSs, perhaps progressing eastward as LEWPs with a damaging gust/isolated tornado threat, as suggested by some of the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30990255 32689985 33519857 33569805 33279791 32459807 31569836 31159903 30940066 30990255 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more