SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 17 17:49:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0458 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NWRN IA...ADJACENT SERN SD...SWRN INTO CNTRL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 0458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Areas affected...parts of nwrn IA...adjacent sern SD...swrn into cntrl MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171746Z - 172015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind, appears increasingly likely by the 2-4 PM CDT time frame. A severe weather watch seems probable, though timing remains a little uncertain. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture return (characterized by surface dew points increasing into the mid/upper 50s F) is ongoing in a narrow corridor northeast of Norfolk NE, across and northeast of the Redwood Falls MN vicinity. This is focused along modestly deep surface troughing, south through east of an initial surface low center now near Brookings SD, where it appears that further insolation and low-level warm advection may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg within the next few hours. This instability axis remains capped by an initially warm, dry layer between 850-500 mb, beneath large-scale mid/upper ridging. At upper levels, it appears that flow may remain anticyclonic through mid/late afternoon. However, models suggest that subtle mid-level height falls, beneath increasingly difluent upper flow near the exit region of a strong jet streak in the 300-250 layer, will be accompanied sufficient large-scale forcing for ascent to erode the mid-level inhibition. Based on various short-term model output, it appears that this may support the initiation of boundary-layer based thunderstorm development, perhaps as early as 19Z, with increasingly likelihood through 21-22Z. It appears that deep-layer shear will become conducive to organizing convection, including a couple of supercells initially, posing a risk for severe wind and hail. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 45259496 45339379 44569317 42699537 43039671 44529554 45259496 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. ..Smith/Jirak.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... Southwest mid-upper flow will persist through the period from the southern High Plains to the central Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream from a large-scale, positive-tilt trough from MB to the Great Basin. A weak surface wave is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. A modifying Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s) will continue to spread northward in the warm sector from the southern Plains to eastern KS, IA and southern MN, beneath the eastern extent of a relatively warm EML. A cluster of elevated storms, with embedded supercell structures, is ongoing over southwest MO. These storms are expected to weaken this morning as the low-level jet and associated warm advection diminish, coincident with the eastward expansion of the EML. In the interim, isolated large hail (around 1 inch diameter) and strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible for a couple of hours this morning across southwest MO. In the wake of the morning convection, surface heating and continued moisture advection will result in steady destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Thunderstorm development is expected near 20z into southern MN where the cap will be a little weaker, and after about 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). The storm environment into southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph). The environment farther south will favor a long-track supercell or two from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight, potentially affecting Omaha and Des Moines. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and long hodographs through a deep layer will favor swaths of very large hail (up to 3 inch diameter or greater) and occasional severe gusts of 60-70 mph. There will be a narrow window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. ..Thompson/Grams.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... Southwest mid-upper flow will persist through the period from the southern High Plains to the central Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream from a large-scale, positive-tilt trough from MB to the Great Basin. A weak surface wave is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. A modifying Gulf air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s) will continue to spread northward in the warm sector from the southern Plains to eastern KS, IA and southern MN, beneath the eastern extent of a relatively warm EML. A cluster of elevated storms, with embedded supercell structures, is ongoing over southwest MO. These storms are expected to weaken this morning as the low-level jet and associated warm advection diminish, coincident with the eastward expansion of the EML. In the interim, isolated large hail (around 1 inch diameter) and strong gusts (50-60 mph) will be possible for a couple of hours this morning across southwest MO. In the wake of the morning convection, surface heating and continued moisture advection will result in steady destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Thunderstorm development is expected near 20z into southern MN where the cap will be a little weaker, and after about 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). The storm environment into southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph). The environment farther south will favor a long-track supercell or two from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight, potentially affecting Omaha and Des Moines. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and long hodographs through a deep layer will favor swaths of very large hail (up to 3 inch diameter or greater) and occasional severe gusts of 60-70 mph. There will be a narrow window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. ..Thompson/Grams.. 04/17/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - ArkLaTex to the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough is forecast to move from the southern High Plains to the Midwest on Sunday. While some forecast uncertainty continues with regard to exact position of this feature, the overall pattern suggests isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential will exist across portions of east TX into the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a moist warm sector as a surface low lifts north/northeast from OK into the Lower MO Valley through early evening. A trailing cold front will spread east as this occurs, while a warm front extends eastward from the Mid-MS Valley into the OH Valley. Evolution of prior days convection is resulting in some uncertainty regarding the western/northern extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, a favorable environment supporting at least isolated severe storms should extend from east TX into parts of southern MO/IL ahead of the cold front. ...Days 5-8/Mon-Thu... Forecast ensemble guidance from both the GEFS and EPS suggest low-amplitude west/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern tier of the U.S. next week. Southerly low-level flow on Day 5/Mon across the western Gulf into the southern Plains in the wake of the cold frontal passage on Day 4/Sun will allow for northward transport of modified moisture. This should continue into Day 6/Tue across the Plains. Some localized severe risk could develop across parts of the southern Plains as an upper shortwave trough moves across the north-central U.S. on Day 6/Tue, but poor juxtaposition between higher quality moisture across OK/TX and stronger forcing across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest may limit overall potential. This low-amplitude pattern will continue through Day 8, resulting in low predictability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - ArkLaTex to the Mid-MS Valley... A compact upper shortwave trough is forecast to move from the southern High Plains to the Midwest on Sunday. While some forecast uncertainty continues with regard to exact position of this feature, the overall pattern suggests isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm potential will exist across portions of east TX into the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread a moist warm sector as a surface low lifts north/northeast from OK into the Lower MO Valley through early evening. A trailing cold front will spread east as this occurs, while a warm front extends eastward from the Mid-MS Valley into the OH Valley. Evolution of prior days convection is resulting in some uncertainty regarding the western/northern extent of severe potential. Nevertheless, a favorable environment supporting at least isolated severe storms should extend from east TX into parts of southern MO/IL ahead of the cold front. ...Days 5-8/Mon-Thu... Forecast ensemble guidance from both the GEFS and EPS suggest low-amplitude west/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern tier of the U.S. next week. Southerly low-level flow on Day 5/Mon across the western Gulf into the southern Plains in the wake of the cold frontal passage on Day 4/Sun will allow for northward transport of modified moisture. This should continue into Day 6/Tue across the Plains. Some localized severe risk could develop across parts of the southern Plains as an upper shortwave trough moves across the north-central U.S. on Day 6/Tue, but poor juxtaposition between higher quality moisture across OK/TX and stronger forcing across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest may limit overall potential. This low-amplitude pattern will continue through Day 8, resulting in low predictability. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Southern Plains to southern MO... An upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will pivot east toward the southern Plains on Saturday/Saturday night. This will maintain strong southwesterly flow aloft from TX into the Midwest. At the surface, a front is expected to be draped from southern IL/MO into northwest TX during the morning, with a dryline extending southward across west-central TX in the vicinity of the Big Bend. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist airmass ahead of these surface boundaries, with dewpoints generally in the low/mid 60s F. Some convection could be ongoing during the morning in a warm advection regime prior to the low-level jet weakening modestly during the day. Stronger heating ahead of the surface boundary could allow for weak to moderate destabilization by afternoon, and additional convection is likely along the cold front/dryline as large-scale ascent increases with the approach of the upper shortwave trough. Vertical wind profiles suggest supercell potential, but storm mode may quickly trend toward clusters/linear segments. Some risk for large hail and damaging gusts appears possible with this activity during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours, with initial convection developing over TX/OK and spreading into the Ozarks after 00z. ...Ohio Valley... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will bring a belt of strong deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity. A cold front and associated baroclinic zone will sag south/southeast across the Ohio Valley vicinity with a narrow corridor of modest boundary layer moisture forecast within this region. Severe potential will largely be modulated by ongoing convection Saturday morning and generally weak instability and lapse rates. Nevertheless, strong flow and sufficient instability may support strong gusts with thunderstorm clusters during the morning and afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

MD 0456 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Areas affected...north-central to eastern KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170646Z - 170845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe wind and hail will be possible through dawn as both a cluster of storms in north-central Kansas moves east-southeast and an additional arc of storms develops eastward across eastern Kansas. DISCUSSION...Near-term severe potential is mainly expected across north-central Kansas where a small west/east-oriented cluster recently intensified. With surface temperatures still holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid upper 50s surface dew points, the primary threats with this cluster should be strong to localized severe gusts along with marginally severe hail. Even as the associated cold pool might yield a surge to the southeast, the cluster would impinge on warming 700-mb temperatures, which may limit overall intensity. To the southeast of the cluster, along the leading edge of the stout EML, some of these updrafts might deepen as convection spreads east. Small to isolated severe hail should be the primary threat with these semi-discrete cells. ..Grams/Thompson.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38569841 38959875 39519880 39739738 39909645 39909580 39829548 39699518 39389492 38809472 38499471 38199498 37859527 37719563 37829653 38409726 38569841 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ..Wendt.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the parts of the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will pivot south and east across portions of the north-central to western U.S. on Friday. A swath of 60-80 kt 500 mb flow will stretch from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes ahead of the upper trough. At the surface, low pressure will develop northeast from the KS/MO/IA vicinity Friday morning, to southern Ontario/Quebec by early Saturday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across portions of the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes and southern Plains. A weak secondary surface low likely will develop across west TX, where a dryline will extend southward from the eastern Panhandle to the Big Bend region. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward ahead of these surface features and beneath fast mid/upper southwesterly flow. This will support scattered severe storms late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours from portions of the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley to Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms north of a warm front will likely be ongoing during the morning into the afternoon across WI/northern MI. This activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough embedded within the northern branch of the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will shift east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the evening/overnight. This will facilitate the eastward progression of the surface front through the period, creating a focus for thunderstorm development. However, strong capping will limit development along the front, likely until closer to 00z, when stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the surface boundary and cooling aloft ensues. Thunderstorms will likely remain elevated atop the strong EML in the 850-700 mb layer, and will likely become undercut by the surface cold front given boundary-parallel flow through the cloud-bearing layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient MUCAPE will support organized convection capable of producing large hail. With time, cells may become training clusters, posing some isolated risk for damaging gusts. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... As a surface low develops across west TX, a triple point will emerge near the eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. A stout EML will preclude convective development for much of the day. Near the triple point and northeast along the advancing cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form in the 22-00z time frame. Supercell wind profiles with large MUCAPE, very steep lapse rates, and elongated hodographs suggests initial supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail through early evening. Thereafter, boundary-parallel flow will result in clustering/training as convection also becomes undercut by the front. Damaging gusts also may occur with initial supercells given a well-mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates beneath the EML. Additionally, some strong gust potential could occur into the Ozarks vicinity as clustering ensues, but hail is expected to be the main concern. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the parts of the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will pivot south and east across portions of the north-central to western U.S. on Friday. A swath of 60-80 kt 500 mb flow will stretch from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes ahead of the upper trough. At the surface, low pressure will develop northeast from the KS/MO/IA vicinity Friday morning, to southern Ontario/Quebec by early Saturday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across portions of the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes and southern Plains. A weak secondary surface low likely will develop across west TX, where a dryline will extend southward from the eastern Panhandle to the Big Bend region. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward ahead of these surface features and beneath fast mid/upper southwesterly flow. This will support scattered severe storms late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours from portions of the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley to Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms north of a warm front will likely be ongoing during the morning into the afternoon across WI/northern MI. This activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough embedded within the northern branch of the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will shift east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the evening/overnight. This will facilitate the eastward progression of the surface front through the period, creating a focus for thunderstorm development. However, strong capping will limit development along the front, likely until closer to 00z, when stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the surface boundary and cooling aloft ensues. Thunderstorms will likely remain elevated atop the strong EML in the 850-700 mb layer, and will likely become undercut by the surface cold front given boundary-parallel flow through the cloud-bearing layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient MUCAPE will support organized convection capable of producing large hail. With time, cells may become training clusters, posing some isolated risk for damaging gusts. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... As a surface low develops across west TX, a triple point will emerge near the eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. A stout EML will preclude convective development for much of the day. Near the triple point and northeast along the advancing cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form in the 22-00z time frame. Supercell wind profiles with large MUCAPE, very steep lapse rates, and elongated hodographs suggests initial supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail through early evening. Thereafter, boundary-parallel flow will result in clustering/training as convection also becomes undercut by the front. Damaging gusts also may occur with initial supercells given a well-mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates beneath the EML. Additionally, some strong gust potential could occur into the Ozarks vicinity as clustering ensues, but hail is expected to be the main concern. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more