SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... ...Southwest... An approaching upper-level trough will provide increasing southwest flow aloft atop a very dry boundary layer over the Desert Southwest region. Relative humidity should drop below 10 percent across much of the lowland areas of southeastern Arizona/Southwestern New Mexico during peak heating along with widespread 10-15 percent RH spread across the area by tomorrow afternoon. Expanded Critical and Elevated highlights due to higher confidence indicated from latest model guidance consensus. ...Central High Plains... Elevated mid-level westerly flow will promote downslope drying and surface wind speeds of 15-20 mph across portions of southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Minimal precipitation in the area over the last few days has allowed finer dormant/dead fuels to remain receptive. Added area of Elevated fire weather conditions to reflect overall fire weather threat. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper low off the southern California coast will begin to phase with a trough within the Northwest. Strong mid-level winds will develop over the Southwest by late afternoon. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. ...Southwest... A broad area of elevated to critical fire weather is expected from southern/eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and parts of southeast Colorado. Strong mid-level winds and the deepening surface low will combine to promote 15-25 mph surface winds (highest in terrain-favored areas). Critical fire weather is most likely to occur from southeast Arizona into southwest/west-central New Mexico. Here, strong winds will combine with areas of 5-15% RH. Elsewhere within the region, combinations of weaker winds and slightly higher RH (10-20%) will preclude critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...EASTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern/central Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa. ...Synopsis... Large scale troughing is progged from portions of the Canadian Prairies into the Intermountain West and Great Basin on Thursday. A deepening surface low will shift eastward across the northern central/high Plains, with a dryline extending from southern Nebraska into central Kansas and Oklahoma. A triple point formed by a secondary surface low circulation, dryline, and a frontal boundary/modified outflow in central Nebraska will be the focus of additional development by the late afternoon/evening across central/eastern Nebraska. ...Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri... Elevated thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing at the beginning of the D3 period across portions of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa and Missouri. Some instances of severe hail will be possible with this activity. Moisture return will be ongoing through much of the day, with upper 50s to 60s dew points from central Nebraska into Iowa, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri. Additional development is expected late afternoon into the early evening across the aforementioned triple point in central Nebraska. Daytime heating and moisture return will yield MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates and ample deep layer shear. This environment will support supercells, some of which may be initially surface based and capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Further east across Iowa and northern Missouri, MLCIN will be in place behind morning convection. Cells may become elevated with eastward movement, but will still pose potential for large hail and damaging wind. The Slight was expanded westward into Nebraska to support this potential. Storms will continue into portions of western Illinois through the end of the period. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains. ...Central Great Plains... Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through the end of the period Thursday morning. Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear/CAPE. ...Elsewhere... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe given weak shear profiles. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A progressive open wave trough will shift southward from Canada before phasing with an upper-level low off the west coast of California on Wednesday. The subtropical jet will spread eastward across the central Plains, with several embedded shortwave disturbances rippling through the flow. Westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will promote lee cyclogenesis late in the period, with an increase in a southerly low-level jet across the southern/central Plains. ...Central Great Plains... Southerly return flow will bring an increase of moisture into the central Plains, with potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. A limiting factor remains increasing CIN and low-level stability beneath a strong EML. Regardless, agreement has increased on convective initiation occurring near the dryline across portions of central/southern Kansas late in the period. Given the elevated nature of this convection, the greatest risk will be for large hail. This will continue into the lower MO Valley through the end of the period Thursday morning. Earlier in the period, some potential exists for development further south near the OK/KS border toward the end of peak heating in the early evening. A few hi-res solutions have hinted at development of a supercell or two within this region, apparent in UH tracks from the 12z HREF. Conditionally, an established supercell in this region could support very large hail, given steep lapse rates aloft and ample shear/CAPE. ...Elsewhere... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from northern/central California into the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the period. These are expected to be sub-severe given weak shear profiles. ..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

MD 0453 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NRN PA...SRN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0453 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of nrn PA...srn NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151608Z - 151915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Showers and embedded thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds occasionally approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits are possible into the 2-4 PM EDT time frame, particularly in a corridor across north central Pennsylvania toward the Catskills and Poconos. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing within a narrow corridor across the upper Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region. This is generally focused beneath the leading of stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling associated with large-scale troughing overspreading the region. Thermodynamic profiles have become increasingly conducive to the initiation of scattered low-topped thunderstorm activity, and this probably will continue this afternoon with further boundary-layer warming and mixing with insolation. The last Rapid Refresh suggests that the corridor of stronger mid-level cooling and weak boundary-layer destabilization will gradually shift east-northeastward across northern Pennsylvania and southern New York State through 18-20Z. This may include CAPE increasing only to the order of a couple hundred J/kg for a seasonably cool boundary layer. However, steepening low-level lapse rates, with profiles characterized by modest temperature/dew point spreads, will contribute to sub-cloud evaporative cooling and melting, and aid downward transfer of momentum associated with strengthening westerly flow (on the order of 30-40 kt) in the 850-700 mb layer. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 42837591 43187450 42547412 42027412 40927731 41097943 42207838 42837591 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...Arizona/New Mexico... Increasing but still modest mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough combined with a very dry, well-mixed boundary layer is still expected to result in Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico today. ...Appalachians... Farther east, post-frontal winds from the northwest at 15-20 mph coincident with leeward downslope drying from the Appalachians are expected today across the Piedmont region. However, fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread as green-up accelerates across the area so Elevated highlights were withheld. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. ..Weinman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across parts of the Northeast. ...Northeast... Within the base of an eastward-moving large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS, a related 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will pivot eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Ascent in the left-exit region of the jet will promote widely scattered, low-topped convection across the Northeast through the afternoon. Despite limited post-frontal boundary-layer moisture, diurnal heating beneath very cold midlevel temperatures will continue to steepen low-level lapse rates amid strengthening low/mid-level winds. This environment will support locally damaging convective wind gusts (45-60 mph) through the afternoon -- especially with any small clusters/lines that can evolve. ...Four Corners into southern Colorado... Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Four Corners and southern CO this afternoon, where midlevel moisture atop a diurnally deepening boundary layer will yield inverted-V profiles. As a result, a couple locally strong downbursts cannot be entirely ruled out. ..Weinman.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. ...Northeast today... A 110 kt 500-mb jet streak will pivot eastward from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, around the southern periphery of an occluding cyclone over southern QC. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward to the Atlantic coast during the day. In the post-frontal environment, steepening low-level lapse rates and rapidly cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation/isolated lightning flashes. The steep low-level lapse rates and weak downdrafts will augment 30-40 kt flow in the mixed layer and contribute to surface gusts of 45-60 mph, with the potential for minor wind damage. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon/evening from southwest CO into northern NM and vicinity, within a modest midlevel moisture plume where weak buoyancy will be possible with afternoon heating. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur over the Sierra Nevada and east Texas. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. ...Northeast today... A 110 kt 500-mb jet streak will pivot eastward from the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, around the southern periphery of an occluding cyclone over southern QC. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward to the Atlantic coast during the day. In the post-frontal environment, steepening low-level lapse rates and rapidly cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy (SBCAPE of 100-300 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation/isolated lightning flashes. The steep low-level lapse rates and weak downdrafts will augment 30-40 kt flow in the mixed layer and contribute to surface gusts of 45-60 mph, with the potential for minor wind damage. ...Elsewhere... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible this afternoon/evening from southwest CO into northern NM and vicinity, within a modest midlevel moisture plume where weak buoyancy will be possible with afternoon heating. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur over the Sierra Nevada and east Texas. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/15/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active severe weather pattern expected through at least this weekend, before predictability diminishes early next week. ...D4/Friday... Guidance remains consistent with a broad swath of strong mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes, downstream of a longwave trough from northern ON to the Lower CO Valley. This will overlap a similarly oriented surface front. In response to increasing mid-level height falls, a surface cyclone should track across the central Great Lakes portion of the baroclinic zone during the day. Afternoon severe may be focused in this region with stronger low-level shear. Parts of this region may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks. Farther southwest, a pronounced EML may delay the bulk of storm development along the front until evening. But given the strong deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy, scattered severe storms appear possible. ...D5/Saturday... Amplification of an embedded northern-stream shortwave impulse over ON/QC should sustain an expansive swath of strong mid-level flow from the OH Valley northeastward. The northeast extent of appreciable instability overlapping with this regime becomes nebulous east of the Appalachians, but scattered severe storms seem possible from the Cumberland Plateau into the Mid-South on Saturday afternoon to evening. Over the southern Great Plains, lingering convection Saturday morning renders uncertainty along the largely stalling baroclinic zone that will undoubtedly be modified by convective outflow. But with greater consistency in guidance handling the pivot of the basal shortwave impulse across the Southwest, multiple rounds of strong to severe convection are plausible through Saturday night. ...D6/Sunday... Predictability lessens by this period with the evolution of compact shortwave trough ejecting onto the southern Great Plains. This yields substantial spread in the attendant synoptic cyclone. In addition, potentially extensive ongoing convection Sunday morning further lessens confidence in mesoscale details. But a belt of potentially very strong mid-level southwesterlies overlapping rich western Gulf moisture supports inclusion of a severe-area highlight in the South-Central States. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN MO/EASTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night. ...IA/MO/NE... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and supercell potential. As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS Valley by early morning Friday. ..Grams.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN IA/NORTHERN MO/EASTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Thursday evening/night, centered on eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and Iowa. ...Synopsis... A longwave trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, will become established from the southern Prairie Provinces across the West to off the Baja CA coast. Peak surface cyclone amplitude is expected over western KS on Thursday afternoon, with a surface trough/baroclinic zone extending north-northeast into MN. A dryline will arc across eastern KS into the southern Great Plains. The cyclone will fill as it tracks east-northeast along the baroclinic zone towards the MO/IA border area Thursday night. ...IA/MO/NE... Along the leading edge of a stout EML and effective 700-mb warm front, isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of the Lower MO Valley. This activity may persist eastward through the morning and pose a threat for isolated severe hail. Neutral mid-level height change is anticipated in its wake, likely confining early evening surface-based storm potential to immediately downstream of the triple-point region in the KS/NE/MO/IA border area. While the spatial extent of MLCIN away from the dryline is a concern, another day of modifying moisture return northward from the western Gulf should yield a confined plume of upper 50s surface dew points and moderate buoyancy. A veering wind profile with height will foster strong deep-layer shear and supercell potential. As the low-level jet becomes rather strong across OK/KS/MO, greater convective coverage is anticipated Thursday night. Elevated storms producing large hail should be the primary hazard from the post-frontal environment in central/eastern NE to across the Mid-MS Valley by early morning Friday. ..Grams.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper low off the southern California coast will begin to phase with a trough within the Northwest. Strong mid-level winds will develop over the Southwest by late afternoon. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. ...Southwest... A broad area of elevated to critical fire weather is expected from southern/eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and parts of southeast Colorado. Strong mid-level winds and the deepening surface low will combine to promote 15-25 mph surface winds (highest in terrain-favored areas). Critical fire weather is most likely to occur from southeast Arizona into southwest/west-central New Mexico. Here, strong winds will combine with areas of 5-15% RH. Elsewhere within the region, combinations of weaker winds and slightly higher RH (10-20%) will preclude critical highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... An upper low off the southern California coast will begin to phase with a trough within the Northwest. Strong mid-level winds will develop over the Southwest by late afternoon. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. ...Southwest... A broad area of elevated to critical fire weather is expected from southern/eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and parts of southeast Colorado. Strong mid-level winds and the deepening surface low will combine to promote 15-25 mph surface winds (highest in terrain-favored areas). Critical fire weather is most likely to occur from southeast Arizona into southwest/west-central New Mexico. Here, strong winds will combine with areas of 5-15% RH. Elsewhere within the region, combinations of weaker winds and slightly higher RH (10-20%) will preclude critical highlights. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A cold front will move off the East Coast, leaving a dry airmass in its wake. A surface high will push cooler air into the Plains and into parts of the southern Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present within the Southwest. Embedded shortwave troughs may further enhance these winds locally. ...Arizona/New Mexico... The shortwave trough expected to impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico has had a slight weakening trend in guidance. Even so, some enhancement to the mid-level winds are expected to occur during the afternoon. West of the cold air intrusion in the southern Rockies, temperatures will warm into the 80s to perhaps near 90 F. This will support RH of 15-20%. Winds will not be particularly strong, but 15 mph with localized pockets of 20 mph is possible. Elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 04/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a primary threat of large hail, are possible on Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Great Plains. ...Synopsis... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to dig southward from the Canadian Rockies into the northern Intermountain West. A southern-stream, lower-amplitude shortwave trough will drift towards the southern CA coast. A pair of lee cyclones will develop near the Black Hills and the CO/KS border area by Wednesday evening. ...Central Great Plains... Just-in-time modified moisture return from south TX is anticipated by early evening, yielding potential for isolated high-based thunderstorm development near the southwest KS/far northwest OK border area. This portion of the dryline, to the east-southeast of the aforementioned cyclone, will have the best chance of sustaining deep convection with overlap of the low-level thermal ridge/weak buoyancy. Substantial veering of the wind profile with height could support a high-based supercell or two with severe hail/wind. The 00Z HRW-FV3 is a distinct outlier in indicating potential for a discrete supercell deeper into the evening across south-central KS, that impinges on greater low-level moisture amid enlarged low-level hodograph curvature. Bulk of guidance otherwise suggests a substantial increase in MLCIN after sunset as the low-level jet intensifies from west TX into KS, with convection probably struggling given the sub-optimal moisture relative to the stout EML. Elevated convection should form later Wednesday night into early morning Thursday, along the leading edge of the 700-mb warm front and towards the exit region of the low-level jet. Although this convection may remain rooted near 700 mb, favorable speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should offer a risk of isolated severe hail overnight towards the Lower MO Valley. ..Grams.. 04/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible today in parts of the Northeast, Four Corners, south-central Rockies and from western Nevada into California. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward into the south-central U.S. today, as a trough moves into the eastern states. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Northeast as surface temperatures warm, and as a band of strong large-scale ascent moves from west to east across the region. In the western states, a shortwave trough will move northeastward into the Four Corners. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorm development will take place today from the Four Corners eastward into the south-central Rockies. A few storms may also develop from the Sierras into northern California, ahead a mid-level low that will approach the coast of California. No severe weather is expected today or tonight across the continental U.S. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/15/2025 Read more