SPC Apr 11, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb) midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and only sub-severe hail/wind is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia and across far southeast Georgia and northern Florida. ...North FL to eastern NC this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough is in the process of amplifying over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed max rotates northeastward over the Carolinas today, and an upstream speed max digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley to the Southeast. An associated surface cyclone will develop northeastward across the eastern Carolinas today, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in combination with surface heating beneath cold (less than -20 C at 500 mb) midlevel temperatures, will result in MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas and along the front in north FL. The weak buoyancy and relatively straight hodographs suggest some storm organization will be possible with a low-end threat for hail and strong outflow winds for a few hours this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and vertical shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east and southeast, and only sub-severe hail/wind is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 04/11/2025 Read more