SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the Southeast from late morning through the afternoon Friday. ...Eastern NC vicinity... A leading shortwave impulse rotating through the basal portion of a broader eastern U.S. longwave trough will yield strengthening forcing for ascent during the late morning. Some 00Z HREF members, notably the NSSL and FV3 indicate thunderstorm development increasing early in the day within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of a deepening but weak surface cyclone. Should this occur, it would be ill-timed with respect to peak boundary-layer heating and displaced east of the moderate mid-level lapse rate plume. But it would be coincident with modifying moisture return characterized by mid to upper 50s dew points over eastern NC. Other guidance indicates a separate round of afternoon storm development confined to near the surface cyclone in the eastern Piedmont of NC, while a pronounced mid-level dry slot limits storm development with southward extent into SC/GA. The degree of surface heating along the northwest extent of the weak buoyancy plume is quite uncertain. But mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and moderate deep-layer shear may yield isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts within afternoon storms. ...North FL... Greater boundary-layer heating is anticipated ahead of the trailing portion of the cold front that extends into the northeast Gulf. Consensus of guidance suggests this heating will aid in isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon, south of the mid-level dry slot. While low-level flow will be veered and weak ahead of the front, pronounced deep-layer speed shear is expected amid a 60-70 kt 500-mb jet. This should favor mid-level rotation in a few cells with a threat of isolated large hail and localized damaging winds. This activity should shift off the Atlantic Coast or weaken over land by early evening. ..Grams.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South this afternoon. Hail and wind are the primary concerns. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb speed max is translating across the central Plains toward the Mid South. This will allow an upper trough to deepen east of the MS River, and heights will fall accordingly as seasonally cool mid-tropospheric temperatures settle into this region. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb, -20C isotherm will extend across northern GA/AL/MS by 18z, which results in very steep lapse rates north of the digging jet. Surface reflection to this digging trough is somewhat disjointed and not particularly focused, though a synoptic front should extend across southeast MO-central AR-northeast TX by mid day. Subsequent southeast movement will take this boundary to near the central Gulf Coast by sunrise Friday. Current thinking is strong boundary-layer heating will allow convective temperatures to be breached by 19-20z across portions of MO/IL along the weakly convergent front. While moisture is quite limited ahead of the front, cool profiles favor the potential for robust convection. This activity will spread southeast toward the northern Gulf States with an attendant threat of hail and wind. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A near-stationary mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging continues to build over the central U.S. and another mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Friday). Ahead of the approaching Northwest mid-level trough, surface lee troughing will take place across the central and northern High Plains, supporting strong southerly flow in the process. A dry airmass will be transported northward across the northern High Plains, with 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds overlapping with 15-25 percent RH tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced given dry/windy conditions overlapping at least marginally to modestly dry fuels. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is expected to sweep across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow, with dry/breezy conditions likely in the post-frontal regime. Winds may sustain over 15 mph for at least a few hours during the afternoon, as RH dips as low as 20-30 percent in some areas. Rainfall accumulations have barely exceeded 0.25 inches over the past week for most parts of the central Florida Peninsula, and given the presence of dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A near-stationary mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging continues to build over the central U.S. and another mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow (Friday). Ahead of the approaching Northwest mid-level trough, surface lee troughing will take place across the central and northern High Plains, supporting strong southerly flow in the process. A dry airmass will be transported northward across the northern High Plains, with 15-25 mph sustained southerly winds overlapping with 15-25 percent RH tomorrow afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced given dry/windy conditions overlapping at least marginally to modestly dry fuels. Meanwhile, a surface cold front is expected to sweep across the Florida Peninsula tomorrow, with dry/breezy conditions likely in the post-frontal regime. Winds may sustain over 15 mph for at least a few hours during the afternoon, as RH dips as low as 20-30 percent in some areas. Rainfall accumulations have barely exceeded 0.25 inches over the past week for most parts of the central Florida Peninsula, and given the presence of dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS as upper ridging persists across the Interior West, supporting surface high pressure and deep-layer northwesterly flow to overspread the central Plains today. Given the presence of a dry boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft is expected by afternoon peak heating given boundary-layer mixing. Widespread 15-20 mph northwesterly surface winds (perhaps reaching 25 mph locally) will coincide with 20 percent RH for several hours across parts of the central Plains, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights given at least modestly dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Outlook... Earlier thoughts regarding convection remain. Strong mid-level speed max is digging southeast across the central Plains and this will allow steep mid-level lapse rates to overspread areas along a corridor from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are currently noted along this corridor and this type of convection can be expected into the pre-dawn hours, especially over the lower OH Valley where LLJ will be focused. Weak instability does not warrant any meaningful risk of severe. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Outlook... Earlier thoughts regarding convection remain. Strong mid-level speed max is digging southeast across the central Plains and this will allow steep mid-level lapse rates to overspread areas along a corridor from the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms are currently noted along this corridor and this type of convection can be expected into the pre-dawn hours, especially over the lower OH Valley where LLJ will be focused. Weak instability does not warrant any meaningful risk of severe. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 9 22:14:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 9 22:14:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A deepening upper-level trough will translate eastward across the eastern U.S. through the weekend bringing widespread precipitation to the Appalachians, the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic regions mitigating fire weather concerns. Farther west, fire weather threat increases for the weekend across much of the Desert Southwest portions of the southern High Plains as an upper-level trough traverses the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas. Another pronounced trough and attendant cold front progresses into the eastern U.S. for day 6/Monday and day 7/Tuesday while above normal temperatures build across the West. ...Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... A broad area of increasing mid-level westerly flow south of an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains is expected across the Desert Southwest and portions of the southern High Plains over the weekend (day 4/5). Daytime mixing within a very dry boundary layer Saturday and Sunday will translate to stronger west-southwest surface winds combined with widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest. Near record heat across the region over the weekend will aid in drying fuels preceding the synoptic wind event. In addition, strong westerly flow aloft could also promote enhanced downslope flow along the Colorado Front Range for day 5/Sunday. Thus, 40 percent Critical probabilities continue for these regions. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A deepening upper-level trough will translate eastward across the eastern U.S. through the weekend bringing widespread precipitation to the Appalachians, the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic regions mitigating fire weather concerns. Farther west, fire weather threat increases for the weekend across much of the Desert Southwest portions of the southern High Plains as an upper-level trough traverses the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas. Another pronounced trough and attendant cold front progresses into the eastern U.S. for day 6/Monday and day 7/Tuesday while above normal temperatures build across the West. ...Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... A broad area of increasing mid-level westerly flow south of an upper-level trough moving through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains is expected across the Desert Southwest and portions of the southern High Plains over the weekend (day 4/5). Daytime mixing within a very dry boundary layer Saturday and Sunday will translate to stronger west-southwest surface winds combined with widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across the lower elevations of the Desert Southwest. Near record heat across the region over the weekend will aid in drying fuels preceding the synoptic wind event. In addition, strong westerly flow aloft could also promote enhanced downslope flow along the Colorado Front Range for day 5/Sunday. Thus, 40 percent Critical probabilities continue for these regions. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible through tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley and eastern FL. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... Only minor changes were made to the thunder areas across parts of NE and MT for the latest guidance and ongoing storms. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast to develop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rather meager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficient large-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolated convection capable of producing lightning through the period. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-based thunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Broad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights were expanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptive to wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying. Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains on track. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Broad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is still expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights were expanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southern Kansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptive to wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying. Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains on track. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as an upper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central Plains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoon peak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windy conditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas. Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.... ...SUMMARY... A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns will be isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough on Friday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, a surface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning. As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Stream will advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolina and perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilization Friday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for a zone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slight risk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extends from northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina where cloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location of the mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surface low. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how close the threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact on inland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor of greater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoing convective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across the central Plains will help amplify the trough across the eastern CONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) will overspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. ...Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley... Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening and substantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability (1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weaker destabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley. A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector by early Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This should result in scattered thunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentucky and perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatest instability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward to northern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercells with a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells will have some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixed boundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventual upscale growth into one or more line segments with a primary damaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into the evening. ..Bentley.. 04/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Short term model guidance continues to indicate high-based but isolated thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska through the afternoon. The isolated convection will quickly move southeastward at 35-45 mph, limiting rainfall while also producing gusty surface winds associated owing to a fairly dry sub-cloud layer. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were introduced into north-central into southeastern portions of Nebraska. Elevated highlights were expanded slightly into western Kansas accounting for a more broad area of enhanced northwest winds within a dry post-frontal air mass. Similarly in Florida, modest northerly surface winds nearly parallel to the lower Florida Peninsula combined with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 25-35 percent range will allow for Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The driest boundary layer conditions will be concentrated along the western Florida peninsula through this afternoon where the Elevated highlights were added. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley as upper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon, an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layer over the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport within this dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuels across the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioned dry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidance consensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of the central High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may support isolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the same portions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windy surface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should be sparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locally higher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated dry thunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more