SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the western Atlantic sags southward with time. With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no thunder areas will be included for this forecast. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450 m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could persist into the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/31/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 30 22:11:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302117Z - 302345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is expected through this evening. Isolated severe storms capable of gusty winds or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push across eastern TX, and now into southwest AR and northwest LA. Ahead of this front, persistent southerly winds have allowed for marginal destabilization via advection with MUCAPE over 500 J/kg as far north as southeast AR. Heating remains limited due to extensive pre-frontal clouds, and scattered showers over the warm sector. Although low to midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep, lightning activity has increased over the last hour, suggesting the deepening moist boundary layer has breached the stable/capping layer. As such, increasing storm coverage is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front through this evening. Shear profiles favor supercells and tornado potential, with effective SRH now over 300 m2/s2, and, deep-layer shear vectors oriented with substantial component across the cold front. With time, a few of the storms could attain supercell characteristics, with a conditional risk of a brief tornado and/or damaging gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several hours. ..Jewell/Hart.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34719118 34539097 34109085 33569100 32609153 32019221 31729311 31979324 32259324 33309278 34289244 34759176 34719118 Read more