WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E AAF TO 10 N VLD TO 25 WSW VDI TO 30 NNW VDI TO 15 SSW AGS. ..SPC..04/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-031-033-043-051-103-109-165-179-183-251-267-072240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG SCREVEN TATTNALL SCC005-009-011-049-053-072240- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL HAMPTON JASPER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 133 TORNADO FL GA SC CW 071420Z - 072200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Florida Southern and Southeast Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1020 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storm potential should further increase into the afternoon, with strong shear and a moist/unstable air mass supportive of damaging wind and tornado potential. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 95 miles northeast of Vidalia GA to 50 miles south southwest of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Increasing mid-level westerly flow across the Intermountain West will promote leeward cyclone development across the central High Plains through D2/Tuesday. As a result, enhanced downslope winds are expected from the west-northwest of 15-25 mph within a dry air mass across portions of southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska. Recent guidance from land management agencies indicate some fuels are still in place for fire spread so elevated highlights were introduced. Similarly dry southwest flow of 15-25 mph across portions of west Texas are expected but fuels dryness remains subdued owing to recent widespread, wetting rains. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southeastern Georgia to the eastern Carolinas. ...North FL to eastern NC the remainder of the afternoon... The earlier supercell structures have largely weakened across north FL/southeast GA, though newer bowing segments have formed and are moving across eastern NC with recent severe gusts of 60-64 mph. Forcing for ascent is modest well downstream of a positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley, and the ongoing convection is ahead of the surface cold front. Sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates will help maintain the ongoing storms for the remainder of the afternoon from north FL to eastern NC. Damaging gusts (60-70 mph) will be the main threat with bowing segments with more north-south oriented segments in the primarily unidirectional wind profiles, though a couple of tornadoes remain possible before the severe threat diminishes this evening. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025/ ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Wednesday, an upper trough will dive southeastward from the northern Plains into the mid MS/OH Valleys, as an upper high builds over the West. High pressure will exist behind an exiting northeastern trough, and ahead of the Plains trough. As such, this system will interact with very limited moisture and instability. A plume of low-level lapse rates/heating will develop late in the day from KS into MO, toward an area of low pressure. This low will travel east toward IN by 12Z Thursday, with a strong cold front extending south into LA and MS by that time. Though only weakly unstable, thunderstorms are expected over parts of the mid MS Valley to the lower OH Valley. Forecast soundings depict a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE, with relatively dry sub-cloud layers and strong shear. While strong gusts cannot be ruled out with some of the convection, the overall threat appears low. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

MD 0435 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PATS OF THE CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...pats of the Carolinas and far southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071718Z - 071915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A band of scattered thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind risk this afternoon. A brief tornado will also be possible. A WW is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC regional visible and radar imagery show some convective development taking place near a weak frontal low and along a cold front across portions of the western Carolinas and far southern VA. Filtered diurnal heating is raising surface temperatures to near 80 east of fairly expansive cloud cover near the front. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F are contributing to weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis) despite weak mid-level lapse rates less than 7 C/km. As heating and lift from the front/upper trough continues, scattered thunderstorms may gradually intensify this afternoon. Current obs show low-level flow is veering, but remains somewhat strong around 15-20 kt. With moderately strong deep-layer shear in place, some storm organization into bands or clusters is possible. Stronger low-level flow may also support transient updraft rotation, especially near the east-west warm front where winds are more backed across parts of northern NC and southern VA. As storms gradually develop through this afternoon, a few more robust clusters or line segments may emerge. This would support some potential for damaging gusts given the strong background flow. The tornado risk is much more uncertain, but the strong deep-layer shear and some enhanced low-level shear near the warm front could support a brief tornado with the stronger rotating storms. Confidence in the coverage of severe storms is low, owing the relatively limited CAPE and poor lapse rate profiles. Still, an isolated risk may emerge this afternoon. Conditions are being monitored for a possible weather watch. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33648162 35847952 36747758 36687618 36387573 35507571 34567721 34217822 33857904 33308020 33648162 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 0436 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 133... FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Florida...southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 133... Valid 071839Z - 072015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and occasional wind damage will be possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection continues to shift eastward this afternoon on weak convective outflow, as the storms spread into an environment where surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 80s with 64-70 F dewpoints. Wind profiles have become more unidirectional/southwesterly with time, and forcing for ascent is relatively modest well downstream from the positive-tilt midlevel trough over the lower MS Valley. The overall severe threat appears to be transitioning more to occasional wind damage with short bowing segments, though a couple of tornadoes will still be possible. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29748334 29788378 29998394 30668319 31378271 32068195 33198077 32798045 30668216 29748334 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE AAF TO 20 WNW AYS TO 10 WSW AGS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436 ..THOMPSON..04/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 133 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC047-067-079-121-123-071940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HAMILTON LAFAYETTE MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-033-043-049-051-065-069-091-101-103- 107-109-125-161-163-165-167-175-179-183-185-209-229-251-267-271- 279-283-299-303-305-309-315-071940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE DODGE ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS GLASCOCK JEFF DAVIS JEFFERSON JENKINS Read more

WW 0134 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0134 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast Montana to Black Hills. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or locally strong gusts will be possible. Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into the Bahamas. Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts of northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to the Carolinas. ...Northern Florida and southern/eastern Georgia to Carolinas... The region will be influenced by an upstream positive-tilt trough with strong deep-layer flow extending into the warm sector across the Southeast, where a moderately moist airmass resides beneath relatively poor lapse rates aloft. Preceding a northeastward-transitioning sub-synoptic low, a northeast/southwest-oriented broken line/cluster of storms exists across east-central Georgia to south-central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle as of midday. Multiple radar TDSs have recently (mid/late morning) been observed in southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle within Tornado Watch 133. A moist air mass exists ahead of these storms with near 70F dewpoints across northern Florida into Georgia, and 60s F dewpoints into the Carolinas coincident with ample heating/insolation especially for coastal areas. Some additional strengthening of already strong (45+ kt) southwesterly winds in the 1-3km AGL layer, oriented largely parallel to the ongoing convective line, will continue to support embedded supercells and bows capable of tornadoes and damaging winds through the afternoon, with the overall potential expected to diminish by around sunset. Deeper convection is also expected to expand north/northeastward along the front as it moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear convective mode is expected with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggests some tornado potential will also exist. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Gusty southwest winds across central Florida are still expected ahead of a cold front through this afternoon across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Several days of preceding dry and warm conditions have allowed somewhat more receptive fuels for wildfire spread. ..Moore/Williams.. 04/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0434 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 133... FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0434 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Florida Panhandle into south central Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 133... Valid 071537Z - 071700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and wind damage will persist with embedded supercells through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection, with embedded supercell structures, has showed signs of slow intensification from mid-late morning from the FL Panhandle into south central GA. Surface heating in advance of the convective band, along with sufficient deep-layer shear and low-level hodograph curvature per regional VWPs, will maintain embedded supercell structures and the threat for tornadoes (as confirmed by recent TDSs in Thomas Co. GA and Leon Co. FL) and occasional wind damage. Likewise, modest forcing for ascent along the pre-frontal band will also favor line breaks and semi-discrete storms within the band through early afternoon. ..Thompson.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29978360 29658456 29818501 31088414 31798342 32038287 31998234 31778215 30938264 29978360 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0133 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0133 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 7 12:43:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0433 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SWRN THROUGH E CNTRL GA...WRN AND CNTRL SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...parts of swrn through e cntrl GA...wrn and cntrl SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071240Z - 071445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least low probabilities for an additional tornado or two and/or locally damaging surface gusts continues in scattered thunderstorm activity overspread the region through 10-11 AM EDT. It is still not clear that a severe weather watch is needed in the near term, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Stronger boundary-layer instability, characterized by CAPE near or above 1000 J/kg, still remains confined to a narrow pre-frontal corridor across the western Florida Panhandle through southwestern into southern portions of central GA. However, some cooling loft appears to be contributing to at least weak destabilization north-northeastward toward the South Carolina Piedmont. The front, with a couple of weak waves along it, will continue a slow eastward progression through mid to late morning, with the Rapid Refresh indicating that a moderate south-southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 40 kt around 850 mb) will maintain sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the instability axis. Cloud cover spreading downstream of the stronger ongoing convective development probably will slow boundary-layer destabilization, and it is not certain that there will be a substantive further increase in thunderstorm intensities in the near term. However, the MCV, which apparently recently contributed to a tornado south-southwest of the Greater Atlanta area, continues east-northeastward toward the South Carolina Piedmont, and it not clear that the downstream environment will not support an additional relatively short-lived tornado or two. Farther south, in the corridor of better instability, focused along the low-level jet axis near/north and east of the Albany into Macon vicinities, there may also be continuing potential for short-lived intensification of meso-vortices embedded with the ongoing narrow band of convection. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32118371 32698381 33708337 34688218 33778104 30448443 30508493 32118371 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more