SPC Apr 6, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 6, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 132 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PIB TO 25 SW SEM TO 35 N ATL. ..LYONS..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-017-025-031-035-039-041-045-051-053-061-067- 069-081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-129-061840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON FLC033-091-113-061840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Apr 6, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 6, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC MD 425

1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0425 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 131... FOR PARTS OF SERN MS THROUGH CNTRL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0425 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern MS through cntrl AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 131... Valid 061234Z - 061430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues. SUMMARY...Convection may continue to undergo further organization and intensification through 9-10 AM CDT, accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts, and a continuing risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...At least a bit broader, lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation appears to be evolving, perhaps including a surface meso-low now migrating east-northeastward into/across the Demopolis AL vicinity. Latest Rapid Refresh now indicates a more prominent south-southwesterly speed maximum associated with this feature, including 50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Although moisture characterized by mid 60s+ surface dew points across central Alabama, between Montgomery and Birmingham still appear to supporting only modest CAPE (around 500 J/kg sampled in 12Z BMX sounding), low-level moisture advection and at least some boundary layer warming are likely to contribute to further destabilization in advance of the convection during the next few hours. Inflow of this air mass may be sufficient to support at least a gradual further intensification of activity during the next few hours, accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts and a few tornadoes. Discrete thunderstorm development is also being maintained near/just ahead of the southern flank of the evolving convective system, and the occasional intensification of these cells, before merging into the line, may also be accompanied by increasing potential for a tornado near the Selma/Montgomery vicinities through mid morning. ..Kerr.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 33198688 33358539 32058702 31338798 31068892 32338827 33198688 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 131 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MEI TO 35 SE MEI TO 50 ENE MEI TO 20 ESE TCL TO 10 SSW GAD TO 30 ENE GAD TO 10 W RMG TO 20 E CHA. ..BENTLEY..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-015-021-025-027-029-037-047-051-065-091-099-105-111- 117-121-123-129-131-061440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE HALE MARENGO MONROE PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC015-045-055-097-115-129-143-149-223-233-061440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHATTOOGA DOUGLAS FLOYD GORDON HARALSON HEARD PAULDING POLK Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 131 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MEI TO 35 SE MEI TO 50 ENE MEI TO 20 ESE TCL TO 10 SSW GAD TO 30 ENE GAD TO 10 W RMG TO 20 E CHA. ..BENTLEY..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-015-021-025-027-029-037-047-051-065-091-099-105-111- 117-121-123-129-131-061440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CALHOUN CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE HALE MARENGO MONROE PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC015-045-055-097-115-129-143-149-223-233-061440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHATTOOGA DOUGLAS FLOYD GORDON HARALSON HEARD PAULDING POLK Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 131

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 131 TORNADO AL GA MS 060745Z - 061500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southwest Alabama Northwest Georgia Far Southeast Mississippi * Effective this Sunday morning from 245 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to gradually move southeastward across the Southeast States. Low-level wind fields remain strong, supporting the potential for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes. Additionally, there is also some chance for a few storms ahead of the main line. Environmental conditions suggest that any persistent discrete storms could become supercellular and capable of producing damaging gusts and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 135 miles southwest of Birmingham AL to 15 miles southeast of Rome GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...WW 129...WW 130... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Apr 6, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low, extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous line from south-central MS into northeast AL. The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the day. ...Southeast... The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind damage and tornadoes. As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning) increase in convective organization is possible, due to a persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low. This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential for strong gusts and/or tornadoes. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC Apr 6, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern Virginia. ...Synopsis... Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low, extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous line from south-central MS into northeast AL. The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the day. ...Southeast... The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind damage and tornadoes. As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning) increase in convective organization is possible, due to a persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low. This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential for strong gusts and/or tornadoes. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce wind damage. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC MD 424

1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0424 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 130...131... FOR LPARTS OF SERN MS INTO CNTRL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0537 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...lparts of sern MS into cntrl AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 130...131... Valid 061037Z - 061230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 130, 131 continues. SUMMARY...Storms overspreading areas near/northeast of Pine Belt MS into areas near/south of Tuscaloosa AL will pose a risk for producing additional tornadoes through 7-8 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Several meso-beta to meso-gamma scale circulations have evolved along the gust front slowly advancing eastward through southeastern Mississippi, with 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb noted on the Pine Belt MS surface observations the past couple of hours. A couple of these circulations appear to have briefly intensified to tornadic strength, based on storm-relative velocity data and debris signatures. Supported by southeasterly updraft inflow emanating from a narrow corridor of moderately large CAPE across southeastern Mississippi into portions of west central Alabama (where surface dew points remain near 70f), it appears that this activity may maintain strength while gradually spreading eastward through 11-13Z. Intensification of one or two additional discrete cells just ahead of the line also appears possible near/east to northeast of Pine Belt during the next couple of hours, accompanied by potential to produce a tornado in the presence of sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. ..Kerr.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 33038780 32928752 32328758 31108911 31098959 31758903 32268867 33038780 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 131 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-037-047-051-055-063- 065-073-091-099-105-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-129-131- 061140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE ETOWAH GREENE HALE JEFFERSON MARENGO MONROE PERRY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC015-045-047-055-097-115-129-143-149-213-223-233-295-313- 061140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 129 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0129 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PIB TO 20 NE MCB TO 40 WNW MEI TO 5 E CBM TO 20 E CBM. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 129 MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME, A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC023-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-087-091-099-101-103- 121-123-127-129-061000- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 129 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0129 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PIB TO 20 NE MCB TO 40 WNW MEI TO 5 E CBM TO 20 E CBM. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 129 MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME, A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC023-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-087-091-099-101-103- 121-123-127-129-061000- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 129

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 129 TORNADO LA MS 060325Z - 061000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Louisiana Southern and Central Mississippi * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An intensifying line of thunderstorms over western Mississippi will track eastward overnight across the watch area. Damaging winds will be the main concern, but a few of the storms along the line may also pose a risk of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Tupelo MS to 35 miles southwest of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 127...WW 128... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 130 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYS TO 40 SSE TYS. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC043-113-061040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY MACON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 130 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S TYS TO 40 SSE TYS. ..KERR..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC043-113-061040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY MACON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
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33 minutes 4 seconds ago
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