WW 122 TORNADO AR LA MS TN TX 051455Z - 060000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee Northeast Texas * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 955 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected to increase through late morning into the afternoon, with tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail all possible. See Mesoscale Discussion 409 for additional meteorological details. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Longview TX to 35 miles east northeast of Jackson TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW LFK TO 30 N PSX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415 ..LYONS..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-115-052140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD VERNON TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-373-407-457- 052140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER GMZ335-430-052140- Read more

WW 123 TORNADO LA TX CW 051735Z - 060200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon initially across southeast Texas, before progressing into southwest Louisiana late this afternoon and evening. A moist/unstable environment will support the potential for all severe hazards, including tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of Port Arthur TX to 25 miles south of Houston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are still expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update were to trim severe probabilities from the west to account for the passage of the ongoing QLCS over the Mid-South into the Lower MS Valley region. Severe hail may still accompany the stronger storms along southern extent of or immediately ahead of the QLCS. Otherwise, strong to severe surface gusts and tornadoes (a couple of which may be strong) may occur with embedded mesovortices and LEWPs within the QLCS, as well as with any storms ahead of the line. See the previous outlook (below) for more details. ..Squitieri.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

MD 0412 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0412 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeast Texas...Southwest Arkansas and far southeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051748Z - 051945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Maturing elevated storms may pose a risk for hail through the afternoon hours. DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery showed intensifying elevated convection northwest of the well-defined frontal corridor across eastern TX. Recent reports of severe hail in Navarro County, along with increasing CAPPI/MESH cores these storms will likely continue to intensify. SPC mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE atop surface temperatures in the 50s and 40s F. Southwesterly mid-level shear of 50-60 kt is supporting of supercells. With most of the CAPE distributed above the freezing layer, severe hail with the max potential near 1.75 inches is likely with the deeper cores. HRRR guidance and radar trends suggest these storms may persist for several hours farther northeast into parts of OK and AR. While buoyancy gradually decreases, MUCAPE around 500 J/kg should remain sufficient for isolated hail with the deeper supercell structures. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW is not expected, but trends are being monitored. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 32469630 33839552 34559502 34549359 34009342 32939418 31939527 31989605 32469630 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0413 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR NORTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0413 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...western Kentucky and far northern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051803Z - 051930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream watch may be needed from southeast Missouri across western Kentucky. DISCUSSION...A well-established bow has developed across northeast Arkansas with multiple measured wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph. This bow is mostly on the cool side of the surface boundary, but the cold air is shallow enough to support some downdrafts and continued severe wind gusts. While this bow likely will undergo some weakening as it moves into increasingly deep cold air north of the boundary, there is a reservoir of better instability across western Kentucky. This may provide enough buoyancy to support some severe wind gusts this afternoon. There is currently minimal surface-based instability forecast north of the TN/KY border (per SPC mesoanalysis) and with extensive cloudcover, it may be difficult for surface based destabilization. However, if even weak surface based instability can develop this far north, strong low-level shear would support a tornado threat. In addition, a band of storms has continued to strengthen across western Tennessee with some supercell structures apparent. These storms could move north of watch 122 with some severe threat this afternoon. A watch may be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours to cover the threat from the bow and this pre-squall line convection. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36228945 36409016 36449022 36789000 37208942 37648805 37968661 37378592 36678630 36368766 36228945 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0124 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0124 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0123 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 123 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 123 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-115-051940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD VERNON TXC039-071-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-339-351-361-373-407-457- 051940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER GMZ335-430-051940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GGG TO 30 NE SHV TO 30 NE ELD TO 10 E PBF TO 55 W MEM TO 15 SSW JBR TO 5 NE ARG. ..BENTLEY..04/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 122 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-017-025-031-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-093-095- 107-111-123-139-051940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT CLEVELAND CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS UNION LAC013-015-017-027-031-049-061-067-069-073-081-085-111-119-127- 051940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE DE SOTO JACKSON LINCOLN MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The Elevated area was expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance as minimum RH is forecast to be 30-40% with winds of 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will be 5-20F above normal from Florida into the Carolinas ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds will be stronger (sustained around 15 mph gusting 20-25 mph) farther north in portions of southern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas where locally elevated conditions remain possible in the pre-frontal environment, but RH is likely to be higher (35-50%) with fuels not quite as dry. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southern Plains will move eastward throughout the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low across portions of the southeast US. This will advect a relatively dry air mass inland on the Florida peninsula, where mixing may decrease the RH to near-critical values across parts of the region while bringing down some higher momentum from aloft. The fuels in the region should continue to dry through the period and are expected to be near the 90th percentile ERCs. For these reasons, have introduced an Elevated highlight across portions of the Florida peninsula for Sunday. This area may need to be expanded northward into north Florida and southeast Georgia in subsequent outlooks. However, uncertainty on exactly how low the RH will be in these regions as well as uncertainties on fuel dryness preclude highlighting these regions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA AND INTO PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible on Sunday across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a positive-tilt trough will move slowly east out of the southern Plains and across the lower to mid MS Valley, with gradually increasing southwesterlies aloft across the Gulf Coast states. A weak surface low will move out of MS and across northern AL during the day, then northeastward across the western Carolinas overnight. A rain-reinforced front will extend south from the low, from northern AL into eastern MS and LA, with another boundary extending from TN into VA. A very moist air mass will exist across the warm sector, with moderate shear supporting scattered severe storms. ...Eastern MS and LA...AL... A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing along the cold front early on Sunday where MUCAPE will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg. Severe potential will be mitigated somewhat due to the relatively warm profiles aloft, however, veering winds with height and around 50 kt at 850 mb may support embedded supercells within the line, with both wind and brief tornado potential. Depending on the degree of outflow/convective contamination early in the day, a slightly better corridor of tornado threat could materialize. ..Jewell.. 04/05/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025 CORRECTED FOR AREA ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Louisiana East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are all possible. ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley... Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT. A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock. This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon, potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its south. Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60 kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector. Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail. ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys... Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some embedded tornado potential exists as well. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025 Read more

MD 0409 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0409 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0931 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...far northeast Texas and northern Louisiana across southern and central Arkansas and into far western Tennessee and northwest Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051431Z - 051630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat will gradually increase through the morning and into the early afternoon from the ArkLaTex to the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes (some which may be strong). DISCUSSION...A line of storms has become better defined in the last 30 minutes across far northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas. SPC mesoanalysis indicates an uncapped airmass which is supported by the 12Z SHV RAOB. However, this sounding also shows a few significant temperature inversions between 800 and 650mb which should limit most open warm sector storm development. Interpolation between this sounding and the 12Z LZK sounding suggest there is likely a zone across southern Arkansas which currently supports stronger convective development. In addition, visible satellite only shows broken cloudcover across southern Arkansas with some heating likely which will further destabilize the airmass and make stronger surface-based storms more likely. Strong effective shear (57 knots per SHV 12Z RAOB) will support embedded supercells capable of severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Strong low-level shear on the 12Z SHV RAOB (282 0-1km SRH) should maintain through the day, even if low-level flow veers amid greater heating/mixing. Therefore, a tornado threat, including the threat for strong tornadoes exists. A separate threat area also exists across eastern Arkansas and northwest Mississippi into western Tennessee where a line of storms has developed. These storms are not that strong and do not have a lot of structure at this time, but as the environment continues to destabilize, one or more supercells could develop from this activity. Similar low-level shear to areas farther west is being sampled by the KNQA VWP. If a mature supercell can develop in this environment and remain south of the baroclinic zone, it will pose a threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33019436 34109379 34989215 35669051 36168980 35848871 34568943 33429111 32859266 32539394 32569434 33019436 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051506Z - 051730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing across southeast Texas this morning and will continue to increase into southwest Louisiana by this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A moist, uncapped airmass is in place across east Texas and Louisiana ahead of a strong frontal boundary. Extensive stratocumulus is in place this morning south of the front, but it is expected to thin through the morning with strong surface heating and destabilization expected by mid-day. As this occurs, more robust convective development is expected along the front in east Texas. Strong deep-layer shear and this strong instability should support the potential for supercells with a threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes. Despite the uncapped warm-sector, expect open warm sector storm development to be minimal given the warm 800-650mb temperatures sampled by the SHV and LCH 12Z RAOBs with primary storm development along and near the front where forcing is maximized. Deep layer flow parallel to this front may result in a messy storm mode, but the environment should support embedded supercells capable of large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes (some which could be strong). ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP... LAT...LON 30729564 31209503 31249439 31209341 30919270 30459265 29829277 29649292 29679322 29709350 29659383 29429460 29109499 28879527 28439616 28669648 29129660 29599637 30309595 30729564 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 04/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the southwestern CONUS will move eastward throughout the day on Saturday. This feature should result in widespread precipitation across the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns in these areas minimal. However, across portions of the Florida peninsula, a relatively dry air mass is expected to advect inland, and mixing may result in localized Elevated fire weather conditions. Fuels in the region are currently marginally dry, but are getting drier. Because of the localized nature of the Elevated fire weather conditions, have held off for now on introducing any highlights, though they may be needed in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0122 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0122 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more