WW 116 TORNADO AR OK 042045Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Exteme west central Arkansas Extreme east central Oklahoma * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells along a stalled front will move into the area of east central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas (close to Fort Smith) just to the west of the earlier tornado watch to the east in Arkansas. A couple of tornadoes, including the chance for a strong tornado, large hail and wind damage will all be possible this afternoon/evening before the storms shift farther east into Arkansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 20 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Fort Smith AR to 40 miles south southwest of Poteau OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW 115... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0114 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE AUS TO 30 NNW CLL TO 40 ESE CRS TO 35 NNE TYR. ..LYONS..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 114 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-041-051-185-225-289-313-455-471-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BRAZOS BURLESON GRIMES HOUSTON LEON MADISON TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0115 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE OWB TO 30 ENE DYR TO 20 E MEM TO 35 ENE PBF. ..LYONS..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 115 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-095-111-123-042340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI MONROE POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-059-069-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-042340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JACKSON JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON KYC007-033-035-039-055-075-083-105-107-139-143-145-157-042340- KY Read more

WW 115 TORNADO AR IL KY MO MS TN 041955Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Extreme southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Norhern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered supercell development is expected this afternoon from northern Mississippi across western/Middle Tennessee into western Kentucky. The storm environment supports the potential for several tornadoes (including an isolated strong tornado), large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, and isolated damaging gusts. The potential for damaging winds up to 75 mph will increase later this evening into early tonight as storm clusters spread into southeast Missouri from Arkansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Paducah KY to 25 miles south southwest of Memphis TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW TYR TO 40 NNE TYR TO 20 SW DEQ TO 30 SSE RKR TO 15 SSW RKR. ..LYONS..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-005-009-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057- 059-061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-089-091-095-097- 099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-133-135-137- 141-145-147-149-042340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BAXTER BOONE CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MARION MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL Read more

WW 113 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 041755Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest, central and northern Arkansas Extreme northwest Louisiana Extreme southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected along a surface front and into the warm sector this afternoon from northeast Texas northeastward into Arkansas. The storm environment will support the potential for a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes, very large hail to 2.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts up to 75 mph as storms congeal into multiple clusters later this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Flippin AR to 60 miles south southwest of Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level trough will displace the Bermuda High as it moves over the Southeast early next week. An associated cold front will slide southeast pushing offshore and through the Florida Peninsula on Day 5/Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected from the Mid-Atlantic through the Florida Panhandle on Day 4/Monday, with lingering showers and thunderstorms on Day 5/Tuesday on portions of the Florida Peninsula. Drier air will remain over the Southeast, including much of Florida through next week as another upper-level trough and surface cold front are forecast to move through the region. Short-wave ridging aloft will likely give way to zonal flow over the West early to mid-next week, with potential concerns for downslope flow on portions of the High Plains mid-next week. The southern half of the West will likely remain warm and dry for the outlook period. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Florida Peninsula... A hot, dry, and breezy pre-frontal airmass will continue over the Florida Peninsula into Day 4/Monday. Coupled with ERCs approaching the 90th percentile and KBDI values of 600-750, elevated fire weather conditions are likely and brief, locally critical conditions cannot be ruled out. Forecast uncertainty remains for rainfall amounts and coverage on the peninsula late Day 4/Monday - Day 5/Tuesday, but a dry period is expected behind the cold fronts mid to late next week. Stronger winds will exist farther north ahead of the approaching cold front from north Florida into eastern North Carolina on Day 3/Sunday, but RH values are likely to remain above elevated/critical thresholds. If high-resolution forecast guidance trends drier and farther west, closer to the large fire activity in North and South Carolina, additional risk areas may become necessary. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042029Z - 042300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon across the area. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...Warm sector convection has slowly deepened with time with some intensification of cells as they cross over the stationary front in southeastern Kentucky. Updraft intensity so far has been muted by a warm layer around 700 mb, but additional destabilization and subtle height falls into the evening should result in more robust updraft development over the next few hours. Modest low-level shear (per local VWPs) should support some tornado potential, especially along the surface boundary, but damaging winds and hail should be the primary threats with the strongest storms. With storm motion predominantly to the northeast, storms will eventually cross to the cool side of the boundary, resulting in hail being the primary threat and eventual weakening of storms. The coverage and intensity of storms will be monitored regarding the need for a watch. ..Jirak/Thompson.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH... LAT...LON 37248698 37718627 37888512 37818426 37738321 37458279 36968283 36528334 36298384 36118467 36038531 36018635 36118697 36148701 36438723 37248698 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0397 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 113...114... FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0397 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...western AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 113...114... Valid 042033Z - 042200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 113, 114 continues. SUMMARY...Maturing supercells will pose an increasing tornado threat this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed over the last hour across northeast TX, in the immediate vicinity of a slow-moving cold front that extends from southeast OK into central TX. The 18Z SHV sounding is representative of the environment across the region, with very rich low-level moisture, large to extreme MLCAPE, deep-layer shear sufficient for supercells, and a rather strong low-level jet. A corridor of increasing short-term tornado threat is evident from northeast TX into far southeast OK and western AR, where locally backed surface winds are resulting in 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2. This combination of favorable buoyancy, boundary-layer moisture, and relatively strong low-level shear/SRH will support an increasing tornado threat with any sustained supercells, including significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Large hail and damaging winds could also accompany the strongest cells. ..Dean.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 31889648 32739620 33549548 34629455 35499358 35179295 34369299 32779455 31879567 31889648 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARKLATEX TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...20z Update... Morning and early afternoon observations show the frontal zone gradually expanding north/northwest from the ArkLaTex to the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. As strong mid-level flow overlaps with the destabilizing air mass, several clusters of severe thunderstorms appear are ongoing and are likely to continue, with a risk for all hazards into tonight. Minor changes were made to the northern end of the outlook area, in accordance with the latest observations/guidance. ...ArkLaTex... The primary surface-based convective band, forming along and east of the surface front from northeast TX to southern AR should continue intensify with several supercells likely emerging and tracking through the MDT Risk Corridor. Additional, more isolated storms are possible within a pre-frontal confluence axis and across the warm sector this afternoon. The 18z SHV and LZK soundings show very favorable thermodynamic profiles, with considerable low-level hodograph curvature (ESRH 330-500 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear supportive for intense supercells. With observed and forecast STP of 5+, several tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense appear likely into this evening. The primary limiting factor for higher probabilities continues to be the more meridional and front parallel flow near the baroclinic zone. The numerous storm interactions should favor upscale growth as a QLCS gradually emerges later this afternoon/evening. ...Lower OH and TN valley... Weak convective development within the broader warm sector has been noted early this afternoon across parts of TN and southern KY. Strong diurnal heating amid 70s F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates may allow these storms to slowly intensify through the afternoon. Displaced from the deeper ascent near the front, storm coverage and organization are expected to be somewhat less than farther southwest. Still, 40+ kt of effective shear with modestly large clockwise curved hodographs suggests some potential for supercellular activity, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail, and a couple tornadoes. The greater severe concern is expected later tonight as upscale growth from the convection over the MS Valley moves eastward. A QLCS with embedded supercellular elements appears likely across parts of western KY and TN into central KY and southern OH. Damaging gusts and tornadoes are expected. Given the robust destabilization now ongoing south of the warm front, have opted to expand the SLGT and the ENH farther east across KY and TN for a damaging wind and tornado threat. ...West TX... Model guidance continues to show a broad area of elevated convection developing after dark. Significant hail and some damaging winds are possible with elevated supercells tracking north from the Edwards Plateau toward the Red River tonight. ..Lyons.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...ArkLaTex to the lower OH Valley through tonight... An amplified midlevel trough over the Southwest will move slowly eastward, while embedded/subtle speed maxima eject northeastward over the southern Plains. Additionally, large-scale ascent will be enhanced within the right-entrance region of the upper jet over the upper Midwest. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is expected to move northward today across AR/western TN/KY in response to a weak wave developing northeastward from northeast TX toward northwest AR this afternoon and southeast MO tonight. The depth of the cool air at LZK diminished substantially from 00z to 12z, which supports northward mixing of the front and warm sector this afternoon. Within the surface warm sector, a very moist air mass is in place with low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km. Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected both along the surface front and in the open warm sector. Storm development will be most concentrated along the front where ascent will be focused and training storms are likely. More isolated storms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from AR into western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be favorable for supercells, with substantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH near or above 300 m2/s2, especially near and just southeast of the front in AR). Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moist environment in the low levels, supercells will be capable of producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this evening in the Moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail to baseball size and damaging gusts will be possible with the supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the baroclinic zone. North of the front, organized storms will be capable of producing large hail and occasional damaging gusts. ...Edwards Plateau to north TX late tonight... Similar to the previous two nights, another round of elevated thunderstorms is expected near and after 06z from the Edwards Plateau into north TX and perhaps southeast OK. The storm environment will be favorable for both elevated supercells with very large hail and bowing clusters with some potential for damaging winds to the surface. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARKLATEX TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...20z Update... Morning and early afternoon observations show the frontal zone gradually expanding north/northwest from the ArkLaTex to the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. As strong mid-level flow overlaps with the destabilizing air mass, several clusters of severe thunderstorms appear are ongoing and are likely to continue, with a risk for all hazards into tonight. Minor changes were made to the northern end of the outlook area, in accordance with the latest observations/guidance. ...ArkLaTex... The primary surface-based convective band, forming along and east of the surface front from northeast TX to southern AR should continue intensify with several supercells likely emerging and tracking through the MDT Risk Corridor. Additional, more isolated storms are possible within a pre-frontal confluence axis and across the warm sector this afternoon. The 18z SHV and LZK soundings show very favorable thermodynamic profiles, with considerable low-level hodograph curvature (ESRH 330-500 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear supportive for intense supercells. With observed and forecast STP of 5+, several tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense appear likely into this evening. The primary limiting factor for higher probabilities continues to be the more meridional and front parallel flow near the baroclinic zone. The numerous storm interactions should favor upscale growth as a QLCS gradually emerges later this afternoon/evening. ...Lower OH and TN valley... Weak convective development within the broader warm sector has been noted early this afternoon across parts of TN and southern KY. Strong diurnal heating amid 70s F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates may allow these storms to slowly intensify through the afternoon. Displaced from the deeper ascent near the front, storm coverage and organization are expected to be somewhat less than farther southwest. Still, 40+ kt of effective shear with modestly large clockwise curved hodographs suggests some potential for supercellular activity, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail, and a couple tornadoes. The greater severe concern is expected later tonight as upscale growth from the convection over the MS Valley moves eastward. A QLCS with embedded supercellular elements appears likely across parts of western KY and TN into central KY and southern OH. Damaging gusts and tornadoes are expected. Given the robust destabilization now ongoing south of the warm front, have opted to expand the SLGT and the ENH farther east across KY and TN for a damaging wind and tornado threat. ...West TX... Model guidance continues to show a broad area of elevated convection developing after dark. Significant hail and some damaging winds are possible with elevated supercells tracking north from the Edwards Plateau toward the Red River tonight. ..Lyons.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...ArkLaTex to the lower OH Valley through tonight... An amplified midlevel trough over the Southwest will move slowly eastward, while embedded/subtle speed maxima eject northeastward over the southern Plains. Additionally, large-scale ascent will be enhanced within the right-entrance region of the upper jet over the upper Midwest. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is expected to move northward today across AR/western TN/KY in response to a weak wave developing northeastward from northeast TX toward northwest AR this afternoon and southeast MO tonight. The depth of the cool air at LZK diminished substantially from 00z to 12z, which supports northward mixing of the front and warm sector this afternoon. Within the surface warm sector, a very moist air mass is in place with low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km. Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected both along the surface front and in the open warm sector. Storm development will be most concentrated along the front where ascent will be focused and training storms are likely. More isolated storms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from AR into western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be favorable for supercells, with substantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH near or above 300 m2/s2, especially near and just southeast of the front in AR). Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moist environment in the low levels, supercells will be capable of producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this evening in the Moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail to baseball size and damaging gusts will be possible with the supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the baroclinic zone. North of the front, organized storms will be capable of producing large hail and occasional damaging gusts. ...Edwards Plateau to north TX late tonight... Similar to the previous two nights, another round of elevated thunderstorms is expected near and after 06z from the Edwards Plateau into north TX and perhaps southeast OK. The storm environment will be favorable for both elevated supercells with very large hail and bowing clusters with some potential for damaging winds to the surface. Read more

WW 0115 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0115 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be likely on Sunday across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will shift east from the ArkLaTex to the Appalachians during the day Sunday with some amplification of the broader scale mid-level trough by the end of the period. A surface front will also shift east through the period with a weak surface low forecast to move along this boundary from MS/AL Sunday morning to the Carolinas by Sunday night. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of this front which should result in some severe weather threat from southeast Mississippi to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from eastern Tennessee to southeast Louisiana. Instability should be relatively weak ahead of this line Sunday morning except for where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints remain. This will initially be from central Alabama southward and perhaps expanding into parts of northern Georgia during the afternoon. Expansive cloudcover in a moist/weak lapse rate environment should limit additional destabilization. However, there should be sufficient instability for maintaining ongoing convection, potentially with some embedded supercells. Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic... A large MCS will likely be ongoing west of the Appalachians at the beginning of the period. The combination of the terrain, and a drier airmass along and east of the Appalachians will likely result in this line of storms weakening on Sunday morning. Some moistening and at least marginal heating through the cloud cover could result in some weak destabilization east of the Appalachians. A few strong to isolated severe storms will be possible from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic as a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region and the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be likely on Sunday across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak will shift east from the ArkLaTex to the Appalachians during the day Sunday with some amplification of the broader scale mid-level trough by the end of the period. A surface front will also shift east through the period with a weak surface low forecast to move along this boundary from MS/AL Sunday morning to the Carolinas by Sunday night. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of this front which should result in some severe weather threat from southeast Mississippi to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from eastern Tennessee to southeast Louisiana. Instability should be relatively weak ahead of this line Sunday morning except for where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints remain. This will initially be from central Alabama southward and perhaps expanding into parts of northern Georgia during the afternoon. Expansive cloudcover in a moist/weak lapse rate environment should limit additional destabilization. However, there should be sufficient instability for maintaining ongoing convection, potentially with some embedded supercells. Severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic... A large MCS will likely be ongoing west of the Appalachians at the beginning of the period. The combination of the terrain, and a drier airmass along and east of the Appalachians will likely result in this line of storms weakening on Sunday morning. Some moistening and at least marginal heating through the cloud cover could result in some weak destabilization east of the Appalachians. A few strong to isolated severe storms will be possible from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic as a mid-level jet streak overspreads the region and the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

WW 0114 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0114 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 114 TORNADO TX 041925Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East central and southeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify along and east of a slow-moving front across east and southeast Texas through the afternoon/evening. The storm environment will favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter), damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Longview TX to 35 miles west southwest of College Station TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0113 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 113 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 113 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-049-051-053-057-059- 061-063-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-089-091-097-099-101- 103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-133-135-137-141-145- 147-149-042040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MARION MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SCOTT SEARCY SEVIER SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible on western/central portions of the Florida Peninsula, where southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH of 30-45%, and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s are expected. Additionally, ERCs range from the 60th to 90th percentiles with KBDIs of 600-750 on the peninsula. Some cloud cover will help mitigate the pre-frontal fire environment, but the warming/drying trend will continue. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep mid-level shortwave trough over the western CONUS will slowly move eastward during the day on Saturday. Precipitation accompanying this trough is expected to fall across parts of the southern Rockies as well as the southern Plains, which should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 4 17:23:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0393 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...AR...EXTREME NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...AR...extreme northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041720Z - 041915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development is likely this afternoon. All hazards will be possible, including the potential for strong tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Rich low-level moisture is in place early this afternoon across LA and east TX into southern AR, with mean mixing ratios in the lowest 1 km of greater than 15 g/kg noted on 12Z soundings from SHV, LCH, CRP, and BRO. This moisture will continue to stream northward this afternoon, along and east of a cold front currently draped across east TX. The 12Z LZK sounding depicted a very shallow frontal inversion, and a persistently strong low-level jet should help an outflow-reinforced boundary lift northward as a warm front from AR into the lower OH Valley this afternoon, though cloudiness and persistent elevated convection north of the boundary may slow its northward advance somewhat. Gradually deepening showers are currently noted within the destabilizing environment from AR into northwest MS. Relatively warm temperatures aloft were also noted on regional 12Z soundings. However, continued diurnal heating and removal of MLCINH should eventually allow for surface-based storm development with time into this afternoon, as large-scale ascent gradually increases in advance of an approaching mid/upper-level trough. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of at least 2000-3000 J/kg) and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell development. Storm coverage may tend to be greater near the cold front from east TX into western AR, but isolated supercells will also be possible farther east and also in the vicinity of the warm front. All hazards will be possible with any surface-based supercells within this regime. Favorable instability, rich boundary-layer moisture, and relatively strong low-level shear/SRH will support the potential for strong tornadoes with any sustained, mature supercells that remain in the warm sector. One or more Tornado Watches are expected this afternoon in order to cover these threats. ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 32569600 33879497 35829387 36329270 36439197 36419124 35829117 35079123 34429152 33429264 32369410 31759541 32569600 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more