WW 108 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 031900Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to increase this afternoon to the north of a front, with large hail as the most common hazard with the more vigorous storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of De Queen AR to 35 miles southeast of Batesville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 107... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TX TO MIDDLE TN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue to form and move along a stalled frontal zone from northeast Texas into middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky through late evening, with the possibility of very large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes. Very large hail will be possible after midnight from southwest Texas into cnetral Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northeast TX to middle TN/southern KY this afternoon/evening... Severe storms are developing along and to the immediate cool side of a rain-reinforced baroclinic zone from northeast TX across AR and middle TN/southern KY. Initial storm motions will tend to carry the convection to the cool side of the boundary (especially across AR), though there is some potential for surface-based supercells to form and move along the wind shift. The warm sector to the south is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints ranging from mid 60s F across TN/KY to low 70s F from northeast TX into southern AR. The rich moisture and surface temperatures warming into the low-mid 80s beneath 7-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates maintain MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg east to 3000+ in northeast TX/northern LA. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length is more than sufficient for sustained supercells, while substantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) and the moist boundary layer will support the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with supercells moving along the boundary. Otherwise, large hail of 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter will be possible with both the surface-based and elevated supercells, as well as isolated wind damage as storms train along and just north of the boundary. ...SW into central TX and southern OK overnight... Within the large-scale trough over the Southwest, an embedded jet streak will move through the base of the trough from Baja to southwest TX by the end of the period. Mass response to the approaching jet streak will result in strengthening warm advection and the likelihood of elevated thunderstorm development over southwest TX after 06z. Storms will subsequently spread northeastward, with additional storm development expected by 12z from northwest TX into southern OK. Steep midlevel lapse rates, a rapid increase in moisture above the surface, and strong deep-layer shear will favor elevated supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), as well as isolated damaging surface winds. ..Thompson.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in the lowlands of south-central New Mexico under diminishing southwest flow aloft amid residual surface dryness. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Downstream of a highly amplified large-scale trough centered on the Southwest, a belt of strong south-southwesterly flow and embedded midlevel speed maximum will shift eastward into TX. While a weak surface cyclone and related breezy conditions will persist over parts of southern/central NM, the meridional orientation and displacement of the midlevel jet will limit fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday and Saturday night from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level speed max across northern Mexico, rounding the base of a larger scale trough, will emerge and strengthen into a 100 knot jet streak across the southern Plains on Saturday. As this occurs, a closed surface low is forecast to develop somewhere near the ArkLatex Saturday afternoon/evening and move along the pre-existing frontal zone to northern Mississippi by Sunday morning. An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place south of this front which will support potentially multiple rounds of severe storms on Saturday and Saturday night. ...Eastern Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A cluster of storms, emanating from initial elevated supercells across central Texas, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across east Texas. The very moist airmass, featuring dewpoints in the low 70s, and the strong wind field, will likely support some severe threat from this activity through the morning as it moves east. Guidance remains unclear whether this convection will strengthen through the day and pose some severe weather threat (such as shown by the ECMWF), or if it weakens and moves into Arkansas/northern Mississippi and reinforces the baroclinic zone. The evolution of this morning activity will affect both the timing and the intensity of the severe weather threat as a more robust morning MCS through the warm sector would probably inhibit a greater supercell tornado threat later in the day with a much reduced available warm sector. Despite these uncertainties, an ejecting mid-level trough with a very strong jet streak, a developing surface low, and an unseasonably warm/moist airmass will support a significant severe weather threat on Saturday. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Upper Ohio Valley... Mid 60s dewpoints are expected along and ahead of the cold front from northeast Arkansas to western Pennsylvania on Saturday morning. Expansive cloud cover will likely inhibit significant destabilization. However, weak instability associated with the moist airmass could support maintenance of a squall line along and south of the Ohio River and perhaps a few stronger, more cellular storms from eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

MD 0379 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 107... FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...eastern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 107... Valid 031911Z - 032115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues. SUMMARY...Storms across eastern Kentucky continue to pose a threat of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky. Afternoon insolation and a narrow axis of better moisture (upper 60s dewpoints) extending into eastern Kentucky have resulted in MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. The deep-layer flow and shear (over 50 kts per mesoanalysis and local VWPs) are more than sufficient for organized storm modes. Currently, the dominant convective mode of north-south oriented bands along the differential heating zone seems to favor severe-wind potential at this time; however, the strong low-level shear would support tornado potential pending a more favorable convective mode. ..Jirak.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK... LAT...LON 37058597 37458492 37808397 37838326 37858314 37768271 37498253 37238280 37158316 37078347 36998401 36778495 36728558 36728576 37058597 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0109 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0109 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0108 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0107 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad, strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some 2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially EF3+). ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas... As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the environment supports a tornado threat. A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak, but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete, open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the Day 1 timeframe. ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley... Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. ...West Texas to Central Texas... Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+") early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z Eastern extent of Elevated highlights in portions of eastern New Mexico and the far western Texas Panhandle was trimmed slightly back to the west. This is to account for recent precipitation and considerably higher relative humidity, which should continue to overspread far eastern New Mexico from portions northwestern Texas through the day. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the ArkLaTex across the Mid-South into Middle Tennessee. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few strong tornadoes are all possible. ...Southern Plains/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... With a prominent upper trough over the West, strong southwesterly winds aloft will overlie areas along/north of a frontal zone extending from the middle part of Texas into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South, east-northeastward to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain somewhat nebulous near the front and southward into the warm sector, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. A notable diurnal strengthening of the low-level jet /45-55 kt/ is expected today across the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where it will impinge on the west/southwest to east/northeast-oriented effective front. This is concerning regarding supercell tornado potential later today, some of which could be strong (EF2+) given the magnitudes of the deep-layer/low-level shear and moisture-rich environment with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70F. That said, some modal/mesoscale uncertainties still persist as to warm-sector development and the coverage and longevity of surface-based supercells, with convection potentially tending to be more prevalent/likely just north of the effective front. Otherwise, large to very large hail will be a threat with the expected supercellular development along/north of the front, with upscale-growing clusters posing a damaging wind threat as well. ...West-central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma late tonight... Elevated supercells are expected to again develop late tonight (after midnight CDT) and early Friday as forcing for ascent increases to the north of the surface front. These storms will pose a large hail threat, and possibly some severe-wind potential as well, particularly if elevated bow echo development occurs as storms spread northeastward within a highly sheared environment. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva... Remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries will serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. While some details remain uncertain, any storms that develop along/south of the front could pose risks for hail and damaging winds. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 04/03/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 3 16:16:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 3 16:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0375 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106... FOR NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...north Texas and southeast OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106... Valid 031138Z - 031345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106 continues. SUMMARY...Elevated cells will continue to pose a large hail risk this morning across portions of north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...A couple of strong, elevated supercells across western north TX will continue to shift east through the morning. This activity is occurring in a warm advection regime atop a stalled surface boundary draped across north/north-central Texas eastward to the AR/LA border. Steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to modest elevated instability, with MUCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg noted in latest mesoanalysis. Additional cells may develop within this regime through the morning hours and large hail potential may persist beyond the 13z expiration time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106. Some severe potential also could persist downstream of the current watch, though north and east extent is somewhat uncertain. A new watch, or a local watch extension will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33859877 34489576 34399464 33889441 32979495 32419639 32189815 32349875 32749908 33369911 33859877 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The most concentrated corridor for severe potential should be focused from the Arklatex into western/middle Tennessee, where very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southern Mid-Atlantic... Within broad upper troughing over the western CONUS, ascent associated with an embedded mid-level shortwave trough has encouraged multiple elevated supercells across west into north-central TX this morning along/north of a surface front. These thunderstorms are also being aided with continued moisture transport by a southerly low-level jet. With ample MUCAPE along/north of the front, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong cloud-layer shear all present, these supercells should continue to pose a threat for mainly large to perhaps very large hail for at least a couple more hours. By late morning to early afternoon, thunderstorm interactions and mergers may gradually reduce the severe hail threat north of the front across OK/TX into AR. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, the convectively reinforced front is forecast to move little today across the ArkLaTex, Mid-South, and TN Valley. Ongoing convection this morning across middle/eastern TN into eastern KY may pose an isolated severe threat in the short term. But, most of this activity has outpaced greater low-level moisture to the southwest, and/or has become slightly elevated to the north of the front. Even though large-scale ascent will tend to remain nebulous/weak across these areas, persistent low-level warm advection should aid in renewed thunderstorm development along/near the stalled front through the afternoon and evening. Any convection which can form on or just south of this boundary will have a rather favorably moist low-level airmass, steep lapse rates aloft, and strong deep-layer shear to support organized updrafts. Large to very large hail will be a threat with supercells that are forecast to develop, and a tornado threat will likely exist with any convection that can remain surface based/to the warm side of the front. With rather strong low-level shear forecast, a conditionally favorable environment will exist for strong tornadoes, with continued uncertainty whether supercells this afternoon/evening will be mainly surface based, or slightly elevated north of the front. Across the central Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic, remnants of convection and related outflow boundaries from earlier this morning should tend to serve as a northern limit to any appreciable severe threat today. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to account for this. Overall thunderstorm coverage and intensity remain rather uncertain across these regions later this afternoon and evening, with some guidance still showing isolated thunderstorms redeveloping. If any convection can form along/south of the front later today, then it could pose some threat for hail and damaging winds. Finally, elevated supercells are forecast to develop once again late tonight into early Friday morning across parts of west into north-central TX. These should mainly have a severe hail threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

MD 0373 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA INTO WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of western PA into WV Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105... Valid 030854Z - 031030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential will wane with time and eastward extent. Locally strong gusts may continue in the short term from western Pennsylvania into central West Virginia. DISCUSSION...A line of convection from western PA into western WV will continue to progress east over the next few hours. Much of this activity is outpacing weak instability and moving toward strong inhibition. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear remains over the region, which may maintain some organized linear convection in the short term. The main risk across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 105 will be locally strong gusts. A downstream watch is not expected. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL... LAT...LON 41387881 40527874 38728024 37738198 37968255 38278277 38778254 39808111 41337949 41387881 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-035-049-059-077-081-083-085-093-095-097-113-121-133- 139-143-147-151-181-193-207-217-221-231-235-237-251-253-257-307- 327-333-337-349-353-363-367-397-399-411-413-417-425-429-431-439- 441-447-451-497-503-031040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN CLAY COKE COLEMAN COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO COOKE DALLAS DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH FANNIN FISHER GRAYSON HAMILTON HASKELL HILL HOOD HUNT IRION JACK JOHNSON JONES KAUFMAN MCCULLOCH MENARD MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER ROCKWALL RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS STERLING TARRANT TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN WISE YOUNG Read more

WW 106 SEVERE TSTM TX 030625Z - 031300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into North-Central Texas * Effective this Thursday morning from 125 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Elevated supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail this morning as they move quickly northeastward. Some of the hail could reach up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of San Angelo TX to 50 miles east northeast of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 103...WW 104...WW 105... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Gleason Read more