WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0105 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UOX TO 20 NNE LLQ TO 10 ENE MEM TO 25 NE MKL TO HOP. REMAINDER OF WATCH 98 NOT INCLUDED IN NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 104 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z. ..KERR..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-079-107-030500- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA LINCOLN PHILLIPS KYC035-047-177-219-221-030500- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG MSC003-009-013-027-033-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-135-137-139- 141-143-145-161-030500- MS Read more

WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S OWB TO 45 SW SDF TO 10 W SDF TO 25 N SDF. ..KERR..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC077-030540- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON KYC003-005-009-029-031-061-073-085-087-093-099-103-111-123-141- 155-163-169-171-179-183-185-211-213-215-217-223-227-229- 030540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BULLITT BUTLER EDMONSON FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART HENRY JEFFERSON LARUE LOGAN MARION MEADE METCALFE MONROE NELSON OHIO OLDHAM SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER TAYLOR TRIMBLE WARREN WASHINGTON Read more

MD 0368 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 103... FOR EASTERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into western Ohio Concerning...Tornado Watch 103... Valid 030246Z - 030415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues. SUMMARY...An organized MCS capable of producing swaths of severe wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will continue tracking eastward across eastern Indiana into western Ohio. DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented MCS (with embedded supercells) is tracking eastward across eastern IN into western OH -- with the northern portion of the line moving at 60 kt and southern part at 45 kt. This system has a history of producing destructive wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. Ahead of these storms, the ILN VWP is sampling an 80-kt low-level jet (at 2 km AGL), which combined with moist/unstable inflow (lower/middle 60s dewpoints -- higher farther south), should support its maintenance with eastward extent (especially the southern portion of the line where instability is greater). The primary concern with this activity continues to be swaths of severe wind gusts (generally 70-80 mph) and embedded tornadoes, given around 60 kt of 0-1 km shear/550 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (per ILN VWP). With a west-southwesterly deep-layer shear vector, any NNW/SSE-oriented portions of the line will pose the greatest risk of severe wind and tornadoes. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39348417 39008469 38868540 38778609 38868637 39098637 40218541 40468526 40858503 40938436 40868401 40708367 40228364 39818379 39348417 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0369 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 102...98... FOR PARTS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN...WRN AND CENTRAL KY...ADJACENT SERN IN...SWRN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of wrn and middle TN...wrn and central KY...adjacent sern IN...swrn OH Concerning...Tornado Watch 102...98... Valid 030253Z - 030500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 102, 98 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for strong, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes, appears likely to persist with a line of storms overspreading the Ohio River vicinity, including the Greater Louisville into Cincinnati vicinities, through midnight-1 AM EDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of additional watches to the east of Tornado Watches 102 and 103. DISCUSSION...Northeast of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, through the lower Ohio River vicinity, boundary-layer instability remains weaker due to more marginal boundary-layer dew points and weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings suggest that CAPE (perhaps on the order of 500-1000 J/kg) may be largely confined to the 850-500 mb layer, perhaps aided by steeper lapse rates associated with a remnant elevated mixed-layer. Given the intense lower/mid-tropospheric jet streak (including 60-80+ kt southwesterly within this layer) now overspreading this region, profiles still appear conducive to the downward transfer of damaging gusts to the surface in the heavier rain cores. Continuing tornadic potential remains more unclear with stronger convection becoming undercut by the surface cold pool. However, given a saturated near surface-layer with at least moist adiabatic lapse rates, and the strong to extreme nature of the low-level shear, meso-vortices with enhanced wind damage, and perhaps tornado, potential may persist into the 04-06Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 37508739 38628634 39158547 39048393 37078553 35028891 35478959 37508739 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S UOX TO 20 NNE LLQ TO 10 SSW MEM TO 10 NW MKL TO 30 WNW SDF. ..KERR..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 98 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-079-107-030440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA LINCOLN PHILLIPS INC147-030440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SPENCER KYC035-047-059-107-149-177-219-221-030440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN DAVIESS HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG Read more

WW 98 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO MS TN 021950Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 98 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and South-Central Arkansas Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 250 PM until Midnight CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this afternoon initially across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, with the overall environment becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes through late afternoon into early/mid-evening. Some of these tornadoes may be strong or intense (EF3+), with widespread damaging winds also likely across the region by evening. This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation with intense storms expected over a relatively broad regional area, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible in some areas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles southeast of Pine Bluff AR to 30 miles northwest of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-030440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY SCOTT WASHINGTON KYC003-005-009-027-029-031-061-073-085-087-091-093-099-103-111- 123-141-155-163-169-171-179-183-185-211-213-215-217-223-227-229- 030440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER EDMONSON FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREEN HANCOCK HARDIN HART HENRY JEFFERSON LARUE LOGAN MARION MEADE METCALFE MONROE NELSON OHIO OLDHAM Read more

WW 102 TORNADO IN KY 022320Z - 030600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 720 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Indiana Central Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 720 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms over middle Tennessee will track northeastward this evening, posing a risk of large hail and tornadoes. More widespread thunderstorms by late evening will affect the region, with concerns for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Louisville KY to 30 miles southwest of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99...WW 100...WW 101... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Hart Read more

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...IWX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-029-031-035-041-047-059-065-071-079-095-115-135-137-139- 145-155-161-177-030440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN HANCOCK HENRY JACKSON JENNINGS MADISON OHIO RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SWITZERLAND UNION WAYNE KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-187-191-030440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRACKEN CAMPBELL CARROLL GALLATIN GRANT KENTON OWEN PENDLETON OHC003-005-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-033-035-037-039-041-043- Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MLU TO 30 SSE TXK TO 40 SSE HOT. ..KERR..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-073-139-030440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW MLU TO 30 SSE TXK TO 40 SSE HOT. ..KERR..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC027-073-139-030440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA LAFAYETTE UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the parts of the Mid-South and the lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern Arkansas Western Tennessee Southeast Missouri Western Kentucky Southern Illinois Northwest Mississippi Central and Southern Indiana Northern Louisiana Western Ohio * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the parts of the Mid-South and the lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Eastern Arkansas Western Tennessee Southeast Missouri Western Kentucky Southern Illinois Northwest Mississippi Central and Southern Indiana Northern Louisiana Western Ohio * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW EVV TO 20 NW IND TO 15 ENE SBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367 ..WEINMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC101-030240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE INC001-003-009-011-013-017-021-023-027-033-039-049-053-055-057- 063-067-069-075-081-083-085-087-093-097-099-101-103-105-109-113- 119-133-151-153-159-169-179-183-030240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY JOHNSON KNOX KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAWRENCE Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW EVV TO 20 NW IND TO 15 ENE SBN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367 ..WEINMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...IND...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 99 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC101-030240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAWRENCE INC001-003-009-011-013-017-021-023-027-033-039-049-053-055-057- 063-067-069-075-081-083-085-087-093-097-099-101-103-105-109-113- 119-133-151-153-159-169-179-183-030240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CASS CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HENDRICKS HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY JOHNSON KNOX KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAWRENCE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, remain likely. Additionally, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail remain possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. ...01z Update... An elongated corridor of severe thunderstorms has evolved from southern Arkansas, northeast across the Boot Heel of Missouri into northern Indiana. Numerous tornadic supercells are noted along this zone, especially across the High Risk area from southern Arkansas into southern Illinois. Multiple long-lived tornadoes have likely produced significant damage in places, and this threat will continue into the late evening/overnight hours. Intense LLJ is forecast to translate across the western Tennessee Valley into the lower Great Lakes, and this will contribute to a northeastward shift of organized convection after midnight as the primary short-wave trough ejects toward lower Michigan. Environmental parameters continue to favor strong tornadoes and damaging winds, along with large hail. Upstream across Texas, a secondary low-latitude short-wave trough will approach far West Texas late in the period. In response to this feature, LLJ is forecast to increase across the Edwards Plateau by 03/06z, and strengthening is expected as the LLJ shifts toward the I35 corridor by sunrise. Significant destabilization is expected into north-central Texas late as moisture surges north. As a result, supercells are expected to develop and spread east-northeast. ..Darrow.. 04/03/2025 Read more

MD 0360 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 98... FOR PARTS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SERN IN...SWRN KY...WRN TN...NRN THROUGH SWRN AR AND ADJACENT NE TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern MO...srn IL...sern IN...swrn KY...wrn TN...nrn through swrn AR and adjacent ne TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 022235Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of long-lived supercells posing the risk of producing strong tornadoes appear possible across northwestern Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas through 7-9 PM CDT. Otherwise, potential for damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes may slowly increase with a slowly east-southeastward advancing squall line. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has become extensive within a pre-frontal confluent zone, from the Ark-La-Tex into southern Illinois. Outflow has generated an elongated surface cold pool, which remains largely parallel to the 50-60 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. It appears that this includes a 60+ kt 850 mb jet core, which is forecast to continue to nose across the Mid South between the Greater Memphis area and southwestern Kentucky through early evening. Gradually, with further strengthening of the surface cold pool, north-northeastward surging segments of the associated cold front may become better defined, with radar reflectivities taking on more organized line echo wave structures. Developing embedded meso vortices may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. Otherwise, isolated, discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing within a corridor of surface pressure falls (near 2 mb 2-hourly) within the pre-frontal surface trough across northern Louisiana through eastern Arkansas. Embedded within a seasonably moist boundary layer, characterized by moderately large CAPE, and an environment with large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a couple of long-lived supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes appears possible into the 00-02Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33839343 35599160 36169111 36409073 36879011 37858916 38348886 38428791 37978753 36868873 35328994 33839106 32829201 32289336 32259407 32639419 33339413 33839343 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0362 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of middle Tennessee through central Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022309Z - 030115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe convection, including supercells, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes may increase through 9-11 PM EDT. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a watch. DISCUSSION...A clustering of discrete thunderstorm development, likely supported by forcing associated with broad low-level warm advection, and perhaps a weak perturbation within the strong southwesterly flow aloft, probably will continue developing northeastward within a slowly moistening boundary layer across the Mid South into lower Ohio Valley. This activity still appears embedded within a broadly anticyclonic low-level regime across northwestern Mississippi through western and middle Tennessee, but the Rapid Refresh suggests that surface pressure falls may lead to weak troughing across south central through east central Kentucky by 01-02Z. It appears that this will coincide with substantive further strengthening of low-level flow (50-70+ kt around 850 mb). If inhibition does not become suppressive to convection, with the onset of diurnal cooling, the risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts may increase through mid to late evening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 36878779 38178619 38378477 37758348 36328495 35538598 34958768 36238809 36878779 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0363 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 98... FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
Mesoscale Discussion 0363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 022312Z - 030045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...Numerous discrete supercells are intensifying in a very favorable environment for strong to intense tornadoes across the Mid-South. DISCUSSION...Numerous discrete right-moving supercells are intensifying across the open warm sector in the Mid-South as of 23Z. The NQA VWP depicts very large, clockwise-curved hodographs with ample streamwise vorticity for these storms (around 330 m2/s2 0-500m SRH). Given a moist/unstable boundary layer, ample low-level shear, and the well-established discrete supercells, several strong to intense tornadoes are possible through this corridor over the next couple hours. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34009085 34259159 34699169 35159159 36289066 36499019 36468975 36348926 36078903 35798902 34179016 34009085 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more