WW 0102 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0102 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0419 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A broad upper-level trough across the western U.S. at the beginning of the forecast period will promote continued dry southwesterly surface flow across portions of New Mexico. However, uncertainty in the strength of the surface wind field overlapping this dry air mass precludes the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. The upper-trough will gradually shift eastward through the forecast period, allowing broad ridging to build over the western U.S. Warmer surface temperatures are likely across the southwestern CONUS, with moist/cool surface conditions expected across the eastern U.S. Overall, significant wildfire-spread potential appears low through the remainder of the week into early next week. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0357 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Illinois and western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021943Z - 022145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity and move into the area this afternoon posing a threat of tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind. There is some uncertainty on the exact timing of the threat, but a tornado watch is likely in the next two hours. DISCUSSION...With an ejecting midlevel trough and associated surface cyclone to the northwest of the region, the warm front has continued to lift northward this afternoon. As a result, filtered insolation and moisture advection have resulted in destabilization, with the latest mesoanalysis indicating 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE nosing into central Illinois. Given the strong low-level flow (75 kts at 2-km AGL per 19Z ILX sounding and recent VWPs) and shear, storms will pose a threat of strong tornadoes and severe winds. Convective initiation within the warm sector does not appear imminent, so storms will likely move into the area from the south-southwest, where storms have rapidly intensified across Missouri in the past hour. Convective mode will likely be messy with a large component of deep-layer shear aligned with the primary axis of convection oriented south-southwest to north-northeast. With time, there is some expectation that storms will cluster and grow upscale resulting in an increasing severe wind threat. Given the threat of significant severe weather (all hazards) during the late afternoon and evening hours, a tornado watch is likely in the next two hours. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39919026 40678956 40808827 40718694 40148655 39098682 38638716 38218766 37978795 37958853 38298920 38508983 39919026 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0358 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ARKLATEX VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022018Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Portions of the ArkLaTex may see an increase of severe risk later this afternoon into the evening. The timing of the watch is not certain. All severe hazards appear possible, particularly with any discrete storms. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and some shower activity has been noted recently within the ArkLaTex region. MLCAPE has increased to 2500-3500 J/kg where insolation has been more abundant. Strong shear will promote organized supercells capable of all severe hazards. The KSHV VAD shows less SRH than areas farther northeast and the low-level jet should be shifting farther east this evening. That being said, there will be a window late this afternoon/early evening where a strong tornado could occur with discrete storms that track northeast into greater SRH. A watch will need to be considered for parts of northwest Louisiana into southwest Arkansas. Along the front in northeast Texas, convection has generally been anafrontal and only occasionally pulsed in intensity. Given the primary shortwave trough lifting away from the area with time, there may not be much push of the front southeastward. Furthermore, cloud cover has been present most of today and hindered overall destabilization. It is unclear how much severe activity will occur in northeast Texas given these factors. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 32239522 32479576 33159599 33539583 33769541 33829513 34019469 33839398 33179281 32979229 32519220 32099238 31909298 31909377 31939433 32239522 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0359 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 98... FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...Northern Mississippi into western Tennessee and western Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 98... Valid 022039Z - 022245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of strong/intense tornado potential is evident in northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. DISCUSSION...A corridor of greater tornado risk becoming evident in northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. Several discrete storms have developed in an environment supportive of strong/intense tornadoes. KPAH and KNQA VAD show ample low-level hodograph curvature (250-325 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). With the low-level jet strength forecast to increase over the coming hours, the environment will become even more favorable with time. ..Wendt.. 04/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34358843 34008929 33879030 33929062 35129041 35899001 36518946 36818914 36878869 36768784 36268772 35308806 34358843 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0101 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0101 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 101 TORNADO IL MO 022120Z - 030000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West Central Illinois East Central Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms will continue to track eastward across the St Louis metro area and vicinity through the next few hours, posing a risk of all severe hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of Alton IL to 45 miles south southwest of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99...WW 100... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart Read more

WW 0100 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0100 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 100 TORNADO AR LA TX 022050Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Northern Louisiana Northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 350 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm development may occur in multiple zones through late afternoon and early evening across the ArkLaTex, with hail/wind and tornadoes all possible with the most intense storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Longview TX to 40 miles east southeast of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98...WW 99... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0099 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0099 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 99 TORNADO IL IN 022015Z - 030300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 99 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Illinois Western and Central Indiana * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase initially across central/northeast Illinois late this afternoon, and steadily progress east-northeastward into eastern Illinois and much of western/central/northern Indiana by evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Decatur IL to 45 miles north northeast of Indianapolis IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97...WW 98... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid-South to the OH Valley through tonight... Convection is intensifying within a band from western AR into southern MO, and additional storm development is likely this afternoon farther northeast into IL. Multiple, embedded supercells are developing within this band, and the threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will increase through the afternoon and into the evening as the storms spread into a more favorable downstream environment. Warm sector supercell development appears to be underway across southeast AR/northwest MS, and more development could occur farther northeast into the lower OH Valley. A special 18z LZK special sounding revealed substantial moistening/ascent in the 850-700 mb layer since 12z and additional weakening of the cap from below is expected the remainder of the afternoon. Continued moistening from the south and strong low-level shear through late evening will support the potential for strong-intense (EF2-EF3+) and long track tornadoes with any sustained warm sector supercells. Convection is still expected to evolve into a more extensive squall line late this afternoon into early tonight, with the potential to produce widespread damaging winds of 65-85 mph into the OH Valley. Tornadoes, some strong, will be possible with embedded circulations, and especially with any discrete supercells ahead of the line this evening into IN and vicinity. The damaging-wind threat will persist across much of OH before weakening late tonight across eastern OH/western PA. ...North TX early Thursday... With amplification of the large-scale trough over the Southwest, the surface boundary across central TX is expected to stall this evening and return north/northwestward as a warm front late tonight in response to weak cyclogenesis and a strenthening warm advection regime. The pattern will become favorable for elevated supercells on the immediate cool side of the boundary, with an accompanying threat for very large hail (near 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage from 06-12z. ..Thompson.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...OH/MS Valleys through tonight... In response to an ejecting midlevel trough and associated 110 kt 500 mb jet streak, a surface cyclone will develop northeastward from IA to Lake Superior. Severe storms are ongoing in a broken band from west central IL across MO into northwest AR/eastern OK, which demarcates the effective frontal zone and focus for additional storm development through the afternoon. The warm sector in advance of these storms is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s across IL/MO and near 70 F from the Ark-La-Tex into the Ark-La-Miss. Low-level moisture will continue to spread northward through the day on 50-70 kt flow 1-2 km above ground level, and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range with only weak convective inhibition through the afternoon. The northern extent of the surface warm sector (northeast IL across northern IN/northwest OH/southern Lower MI) will be modulated by ongoing convection. The primary jet streak/cyclone will be displaced northwest of the unstable warm sector, though flow will remain strong in the warm sector with long hodographs and substantial low-level shear/hodograph curvature. Convective mode is expected to be somewhat messy with embedded supercells within an increasingly extensive band of storms through the afternoon/evening. Convective inhibition will be sufficiently weak to support some potential for a few supercells ahead of the band in the open warm sector. The tornado threat will be maximized for the more discrete storms within or ahead of the main band, where a few intense (EF3+) tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, evolution into an extensive squall line is expected with an accompanying threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) and occasional large hail (1.5-2.5 inches in diameter - especially with persistent supercells). Overnight, the northern portion of the squall line will eventually move east of the more unstable warm sector and weaken from OH into western PA. The southern portion of the convective band is expected to pivot gradually to a more WSW-ENE orientation favoring training convection along and atop the conglomerate cold pool. ...North TX/southeast OK this evening through Thursday morning... In the wake of the ejecting IA-Lake Superior jet streak, midlevel flow will tend to amplify/back with time over TX, downstream of the amplifying large-scale trough over the Southwest. This will contribute to weak cyclogenesis across northwest TX along the residual baroclinic zone, and a strengthening warm advection regime along/north of the boundary tonight. The open warm sector will likely remain capped (per the warm elevated mixed layer observed this morning over TX), but the environment will favor elevated supercells to the cool side of the boundary. Very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts will be the main threats with these elevated storms overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid-South to the OH Valley through tonight... Convection is intensifying within a band from western AR into southern MO, and additional storm development is likely this afternoon farther northeast into IL. Multiple, embedded supercells are developing within this band, and the threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will increase through the afternoon and into the evening as the storms spread into a more favorable downstream environment. Warm sector supercell development appears to be underway across southeast AR/northwest MS, and more development could occur farther northeast into the lower OH Valley. A special 18z LZK special sounding revealed substantial moistening/ascent in the 850-700 mb layer since 12z and additional weakening of the cap from below is expected the remainder of the afternoon. Continued moistening from the south and strong low-level shear through late evening will support the potential for strong-intense (EF2-EF3+) and long track tornadoes with any sustained warm sector supercells. Convection is still expected to evolve into a more extensive squall line late this afternoon into early tonight, with the potential to produce widespread damaging winds of 65-85 mph into the OH Valley. Tornadoes, some strong, will be possible with embedded circulations, and especially with any discrete supercells ahead of the line this evening into IN and vicinity. The damaging-wind threat will persist across much of OH before weakening late tonight across eastern OH/western PA. ...North TX early Thursday... With amplification of the large-scale trough over the Southwest, the surface boundary across central TX is expected to stall this evening and return north/northwestward as a warm front late tonight in response to weak cyclogenesis and a strenthening warm advection regime. The pattern will become favorable for elevated supercells on the immediate cool side of the boundary, with an accompanying threat for very large hail (near 2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated wind damage from 06-12z. ..Thompson.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...OH/MS Valleys through tonight... In response to an ejecting midlevel trough and associated 110 kt 500 mb jet streak, a surface cyclone will develop northeastward from IA to Lake Superior. Severe storms are ongoing in a broken band from west central IL across MO into northwest AR/eastern OK, which demarcates the effective frontal zone and focus for additional storm development through the afternoon. The warm sector in advance of these storms is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s across IL/MO and near 70 F from the Ark-La-Tex into the Ark-La-Miss. Low-level moisture will continue to spread northward through the day on 50-70 kt flow 1-2 km above ground level, and surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range with only weak convective inhibition through the afternoon. The northern extent of the surface warm sector (northeast IL across northern IN/northwest OH/southern Lower MI) will be modulated by ongoing convection. The primary jet streak/cyclone will be displaced northwest of the unstable warm sector, though flow will remain strong in the warm sector with long hodographs and substantial low-level shear/hodograph curvature. Convective mode is expected to be somewhat messy with embedded supercells within an increasingly extensive band of storms through the afternoon/evening. Convective inhibition will be sufficiently weak to support some potential for a few supercells ahead of the band in the open warm sector. The tornado threat will be maximized for the more discrete storms within or ahead of the main band, where a few intense (EF3+) tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise, evolution into an extensive squall line is expected with an accompanying threat for damaging winds (60-80 mph) and occasional large hail (1.5-2.5 inches in diameter - especially with persistent supercells). Overnight, the northern portion of the squall line will eventually move east of the more unstable warm sector and weaken from OH into western PA. The southern portion of the convective band is expected to pivot gradually to a more WSW-ENE orientation favoring training convection along and atop the conglomerate cold pool. ...North TX/southeast OK this evening through Thursday morning... In the wake of the ejecting IA-Lake Superior jet streak, midlevel flow will tend to amplify/back with time over TX, downstream of the amplifying large-scale trough over the Southwest. This will contribute to weak cyclogenesis across northwest TX along the residual baroclinic zone, and a strengthening warm advection regime along/north of the boundary tonight. The open warm sector will likely remain capped (per the warm elevated mixed layer observed this morning over TX), but the environment will favor elevated supercells to the cool side of the boundary. Very large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and isolated severe gusts will be the main threats with these elevated storms overnight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z Dry, breezy conditions are still anticipated under deep-layer southwesterly flow across portions of southwestern New Mexico into the southern High Plains. Given forecast antecedent light rainfall across portions of western Texas and the Panhandle, and uncertainty in eastward extent of dryline mixing, some trimming of the Elevated fire weather highlights were made. Latest model guidance consensus also supports a slight westward expansion of Elevated conditions into central New Mexico within a dry fuel environment. Farther south, dry surface flow from northern Mexico should result in Elevated fire weather conditions in the Texas Big Bend area, with wind speeds approaching 20 mph amid 10 percent RH by the afternoon. Therefore, Elevated highlights were introduced. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will continue across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response to the downslope flow and decreased static stability, a lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, with a dryline extending southward along the southern High Plains. West of the dryline, 10-15 percent RH will develop amid 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds -- yielding elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0098 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0098 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 98 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO MS TN 021950Z - 030500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 98 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and South-Central Arkansas Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 250 PM until Midnight CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop this afternoon initially across the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South, with the overall environment becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes through late afternoon into early/mid-evening. Some of these tornadoes may be strong or intense (EF3+), with widespread damaging winds also likely across the region by evening. This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation with intense storms expected over a relatively broad regional area, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible in some areas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles southeast of Pine Bluff AR to 30 miles northwest of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 97... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MO BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from the Rio Grande and Red River Valleys, through the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes will be from the ArkLaTex to the Missouri Bootheel. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing over the western US will continue to deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. ...ArkLaTex to the MO Bootheel... An unseasonably warm/moist airmass will be in place across East Texas and Louisiana Friday morning with mean mixing ratios of 15 to 16 g/kg forecast. During the morning, the front will move north across Arkansas as a warm front with strong instability developing across much of the state by mid day. During the afternoon ascent will increase as height falls overspread the region, the low-level jet strengthens, and the influence of the left entrance region of the upper-level jet streak is realized. This should result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE (per ECMWF forecast soundings). Storms will likely develop along the surface front during the early afternoon with greater uncertainty whether forcing will be sufficient enough for discrete development ahead of the front. Either way, the instability and 45-55 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for supercells capable of all hazards with eventual upscale growth and an increasing wind threat along the front. The strong tornado/very large hail threat will be more closely tied to the potential for maintenance of discrete supercells and due to these uncertainties, no hatched area has been added at this time. ...Ohio Valley... Additional severe thunderstorms are possible farther northeast in the Ohio Valley both during the day and into the overnight hours. Weaker instability and mid-level lapse rates, in addition to ongoing convection and cloud cover from Friday morning convection, casts uncertainties on a greater threat. However, sufficient instability and shear along the frontal zone should support at least some threat for isolated to scattered severe storms. ...Central Texas to northern and northeast Texas... Between 00Z and 06Z a mid-level jet streak is forecast to eject from northern Mexico into south-central Texas. As this occurs, a low-level jet will strengthen across south Texas into central Texas. Amid 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, initially elevated supercells are expected to develop. As ascent continues to increase across the southern Plains, expect additional thunderstorm development Friday night with some severe threat persisting into Saturday morning. Eventually, these storms will likely become surface based given the rich moisture in place across East Texas. Moderate instability and strong low-level shear will support a threat for all severe hazards, but some relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer may limit a greater severe weather threat in the absence of diurnal destabilization. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2025 Read more

WW 0097 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 97 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/02/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 97 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-019-023-029-045-049-051-059-065-071-083-089-097-101- 105-109-113-115-119-125-127-129-137-141-149-021940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLARK CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON GARLAND HOT SPRING IZARD JOHNSON LOGAN MARION MONTGOMERY NEWTON PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEARCY STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-013-027-051-061-083-117-119-121-133-135-149-157-163-189- 021940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON FAYETTE GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON MARION Read more