WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E MKL TO 35 W BNA TO 25 SE BWG TO 50 SSW LEX TO 20 NW JKL TO 30 NNE JKL. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...PAH...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-077-031040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT LAUDERDALE KYC001-025-045-051-053-057-109-115-121-125-129-147-153-169-171- 189-199-203-207-231-235-031040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BREATHITT CASEY CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAUREL LEE MCCREARY MAGOFFIN METCALFE MONROE OWSLEY PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL WAYNE WHITLEY MSC003-009-013-027-071-081-093-107-115-117-119-135-137-139-141- 145-161-031040- Read more

WW 104 TORNADO AL KY MS TN 030435Z - 031100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Central and Eastern Kentucky Northern Mississippi Middle Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1135 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will persist through the night across the watch area. While a slow overall weakening trend is expected, very strong wind fields and sufficient instability will maintain some risk of isolated severe storms for several more hours. Locally damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the main concern. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Lexington KY to 30 miles south southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 102...WW 103... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HTS TO 10 ENE PKB TO 40 S HLG. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC005-007-011-013-015-017-021-033-035-039-041-043-045-049-053- 059-073-079-085-087-095-099-105-107-031040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRAXTON CABELL CALHOUN CLAY DODDRIDGE GILMER HARRISON JACKSON KANAWHA LEWIS LINCOLN LOGAN MARION MASON MINGO PLEASANTS PUTNAM RITCHIE ROANE TYLER WAYNE WIRT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 105 SEVERE TSTM KY OH PA WV LE 030455Z - 031100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kentucky Eastern Ohio Extreme Western Pennsylvania Western and Northern West Virginia Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday morning from 1255 AM until 700 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over western Ohio will track eastward across the watch area overnight, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west of Erie PA to 35 miles southwest of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 102...WW 103...WW 104... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in relatively good agreement for the Sunday/D4 to Monday/D5 period, depicting an elongating upper trough sweeping east from the OH/TN Valleys to the East Coast. On Sunday/D4, a leading midlevel wave is forecast to move out of AR and across TN/KY, with little amplitude and poor lapse rates by this time. An extensive area of rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing along the length of the cold front throughout the day, from the Northeast to the northern Gulf Coast. Some severe wind threat is expected, mainly over parts of the Southeast where dewpoints will be higher and as deep-layer shear remains favorable. The trend of widespread precipitation along this front will continue into early Monday/D5, from the Carolinas into FL. The severe risk should continue to dwindle as large-scale support weakens, but low-end potential cannot be ruled out over these areas. For the Tuesday/D6 to Thursday/D8 time frame, the weather pattern will be much less conducive to severe storms, with a ridge building over the West, and northwest flow across the central states. Periodic surges of high pressure are forecast, helping to keep conditions mostly stable over the bulk of the CONUS. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are forecast Saturday from the Sabine Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough with a meridional leading speed max will move across the southern Plains, with the wave ejecting into the mid MS Valley into Sunday morning. As the trough approaches, winds aloft will increase through the period, with 50-60 kt midlevel winds common into the lower MS and TN Valleys. At the surface, a front will stretch roughly from eastern TX into central AR, with the TX portion surging east as a cold front. The northeastward extension of this boundary may remain quasi-stationary through much of the day and evening prior to the surface wave developing. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of this front, with the 68 to 70 F dewpoints across eastern TX, LA, MS and southern AR. A broad fetch of 50+ kt southerly winds around 850 mb will help maintain the unstable warm sector, while also providing low-level shear for a tornado risk. ...Texas northeastward toward the Tennessee Valley... Widespread rain and storms will be ongoing from the Red River to the OH Valley, primarily north of the surface boundary and aided by low-level warm advection. With lengthy hodographs and over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX into AR, some of those storms may produce hail. Depending on how much early day convection occurs, the effective AR/TN portion of the front may be farther south than forecast. However, the opposing southerly low-level jet and upstream pockets of heating should keep the front over AR and perhaps western TN/northern MS. Forecast soundings show moist and unstable profiles, though midlevel lapse rates will be a bit weaker than on the previous few days. However, shear will remain strong and favorable for both supercells and tornadoes. Storms will develop both along the cold front as it surges eastward, and along the boundary extending east/northeast into TN/KY, with highest tornado potential across the Enhanced Risk area, the bounds of which will likely be adjusted in later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Downstream of a highly amplified large-scale trough centered on the Southwest, a belt of strong south-southwesterly flow and embedded midlevel speed maximum will shift eastward into TX. While a weak surface cyclone and related breezy conditions will persist over parts of southern/central NM, the meridional orientation and displacement of the midlevel jet will limit fire-weather concerns compared to previous days. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a 70-80-kt midlevel southwesterly speed maximum will emerge over the southern High Plains. In response, a weak lee cyclone will develop over southeast CO, while another broad/weak surface cyclone forms along the tail end of a front south of the TX Big Bend. Aided by downslope flow and diurnal heating on the western edge of increasing cloud coverage, a corridor of 15-20 percent RH will develop from southern NM northeastward to far southeast CO. Here, around 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over the TX Big Bend, where dry/breezy conditions are expected north of the surface cyclone. ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0371 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Pecos Valley and Edwards Plateau into portions of the Texas South Plains and Northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030426Z - 030630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity posing increasing potential for severe hail overnight may begin to increase as early as 1-3 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a significant short wave perturbation digging through the Southwest, large-scale ascent, rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, appears to be underway. The environment remains relatively dry, but high based convection appears to be developing to the northwest and north of the San Angelo area. Although inhibition remains sizable, based on forecast soundings, models suggest that the lift, coupled with increasing elevated moisture return, may begin to contribute to scattered thunderstorm development by 06-08Z, if not earlier. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear in the convective layer, some of this may begin to pose increasing potential for severe hail overnight. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 30670152 32490157 32759868 31809831 30240011 29580064 30670152 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0372 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 104... FOR FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MS INTO PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0372 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Areas affected...far north-central MS into portions of Middle TN Concerning...Tornado Watch 104... Valid 030543Z - 030715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor of strong tornado potential may persist another 1-2 hours across north-central Mississippi into portions of western and Middle Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Two intense supercells with confirmed tornado debris signatures are ongoing across portions of the MCD area. This activity is occurring within an intense low-level jet near 60 kt, aiding in enhanced 0-1 km SRH near 300 m2/s2 per region VWP data. This activity is also within the corridor of max effective STP (near 2-4). The storms have produced rotational velocity signatures greater than 50-60 kt over the past 30 minutes. These supercells within the current environment, coupled with radar trends, suggest a strong tornado risk will persist downstream for the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG... LAT...LON 34829009 35828827 36158755 35958740 35378774 34478943 34479008 34599024 34829009 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0106 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado potential. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells with tornado potential. Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal, elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into central TX. ...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley... Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will favor hail potential. During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector, which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the front with access to unstable air mass. Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into central TX. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across much of Arkansas into far southern Missouri, including strong tornado potential. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a broad fetch of south/southwest winds aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Midwest, as an upper low moves across AZ/NM. A surface boundary will extend roughly from the OH Valley into central TX early on Friday, with a wave of low pressure developing during the day over northeast TX/southeast OK. This feature will then translate northeastward along the front into IN/OH late. As this occurs, a rather rapid warm frontal surge will occur over AR and into far southern MO, aided by persistent southerly deep-layer winds from surface to 850 mb. This will also result in a rapid increase in instability, and shear favorable for supercells with tornado potential. Behind the low, a cold front will push across the remainder of northern TX and into south-central TX. Although post frontal, elevated instability will persist, with the influence of the upper trough to the west resulting in overnight hail potential into central TX. ...From Texas into Arkansas and toward the lower Ohio Valley... Scattered showers and storms are likely near the front from the Red River into northern AR/southern MO early in the day. Sufficient instability and lapse rates, along with strong deep-layer shear will favor hail potential. During the day, areas of heating will occur over the warm sector, which will remain very moist. Afternoon supercells are anticipated over northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR, with a continuation across northern AR/southern MO through evening. This area will experience substantial pressure falls with a favorable corridor for a strong tornado threat. Depicted model hodographs indicate effective SRH over 400 m2/s2 will be common. Given continued northward motion of the warm front across southeast MO into the OH Valley late, storms should be able to persist/ride along with the front with access to unstable air mass. Overnight, cool temperatures aloft with the upper trough and a surge of elevated theta-e from the southeast and atop the surface cold front should favor widespread storms with large hail expected into central TX. ..Jewell.. 04/03/2025 Read more

WW 0104 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BWG TO 30 SE SDF TO 20 N LEX TO 30 S LUK. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...PAH...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-077-030740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT LAUDERDALE KYC001-003-005-009-011-017-021-045-049-053-057-061-063-065-067- 069-073-079-087-097-099-109-113-123-125-129-137-147-151-155-165- 167-169-171-173-175-179-181-189-197-199-203-205-207-209-213-217- 219-227-229-231-237-239-030740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARRISON HART JACKSON JESSAMINE LARUE LAUREL LEE LINCOLN Read more

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LEX TO 25 SSE LUK TO 40 SE DAY TO 30 SW MFD TO 30 W CLE TO 40 NNW CLE. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...IWX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC023-135-161-201-030740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRACKEN LEWIS MASON ROBERTSON OHC001-005-015-035-041-045-047-049-071-073-075-083-089-093-097- 103-117-129-131-139-141-145-169-030740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HIGHLAND HOCKING HOLMES KNOX LICKING LORAIN MADISON MEDINA MORROW PICKAWAY PIKE RICHLAND ROSS SCIOTO WAYNE Read more

WW 0103 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LEX TO 25 SSE LUK TO 40 SE DAY TO 30 SW MFD TO 30 W CLE TO 40 NNW CLE. ..LEITMAN..04/03/25 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN...IWX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 103 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC023-135-161-201-030740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRACKEN LEWIS MASON ROBERTSON OHC001-005-015-035-041-045-047-049-071-073-075-083-089-093-097- 103-117-129-131-139-141-145-169-030740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHLAND BROWN CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HIGHLAND HOCKING HOLMES KNOX LICKING LORAIN MADISON MEDINA MORROW PICKAWAY PIKE RICHLAND ROSS SCIOTO WAYNE Read more

WW 103 TORNADO IN KY OH LE 030115Z - 030800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 915 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana North Central Kentucky Western and Central Ohio Lake Erie * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 915 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of intense thunderstorms over western Indiana will track eastward tonight across the watch area. Damaging winds are the main concern, but some hail and a few tornadoes are also possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Toledo OH to 60 miles southwest of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 98...WW 99...WW 100...WW 102... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected along/near a frontal zone from the southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley region. The most concentrated corridor will be from the Arklatex into western Tennessee were very large hail and a few strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley Region... Western U.S. trough continues to settle south with the strongest flow now extending across northern Mexico within the base of this feature. As a result, latest model guidance suggests broad height rises will occur across much of the CONUS today with the only appreciable falls expected over northern Mexico and across New England. Even so, at least one notable disturbance will eject into the southern Plains during the day1 period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a short wave is approaching far West TX, as a new baroclinic leaf is beginning to mature immediately downstream from NM into northeast Mexico. In response, southeasterly 1km winds are increasing across much of TX and 50kt LLJ should focus into the Arklatex by daybreak. In the absence of appreciable large-scale ascent, LLJ will likely modulate convective processes much of the period; although, diurnal heating will also contribute south of the synoptic front. Early this morning, synoptic front extends across western KY-central AR-southwest TX. Seasonally high PW values (1.5-1.8 inches) will extend along this frontal zone from TX into the TN Valley, and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will persist along this corridor. As a result, forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE north of the wind shift, with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, just south of the synoptic front by mid afternoon. Strong/severe elevated convection is expected to develop prior to the start of the period along the nose of the LLJ. Supercells could certainly produce large/very large hail given thermodynamic profiles. Latest thinking is the frontal zone will move very little through the period and a sharp demarcation between surface-based and elevated convection will be noted. Of particular concern will be the updrafts that generate along, just south of the wind shift across the Arklatex by mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow favors updrafts tracking along the frontal zone, and low-level shear will be maximized within a very moist and strongly sheared environment. In addition to very large hail, a few strong tornadoes may develop with supercells that maintain their surface-based inflow. LLJ will gradually lift across the TN Valley into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period, then increase again across TX late. Lack of meaningful forcing across much of the eastern TN Valley region suggests diurnal heating will be the primary instigator in robust convective development. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/03/2025 Read more