SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and several tornadoes are expected from Saturday into Saturday night from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the lower to mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe gusts above 70 mph will be possible in parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A mid-level jet streak, situated near the southern axis of the mid-level trough across northern New Mexico will shift northeastward through the day and will be centered over Arkansas by 12Z Sunday. An elongated surface frontal zone will run parallel to this deep-layer flow from South Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface low is forecast to develop along this frontal zone and move northeast through the day Saturday. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible along and southeast of this surface front during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. ...East Texas into Middle Tennessee... Widespread convection is anticipated Saturday morning along the frontal zone from northeast Texas into the Ohio Valley. This convection should reinforce the cold air north of the front which may result in it continuing to move south through the day. This is a complicating factor to the overall forecast which could limit the longevity of surface based storms and thus the overall severe weather threat closer to the front from southern Arkansas into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. The HRRR and other CAM guidance develops a strong enough surface wave along the front from mid-morning to early afternoon which stalls and/or results in a slight northward shift of the frontal zone by early afternoon. This would result in longer residence time for any surface based storms and at least some window for a strong tornado threat. However, guidance has trended weaker with the surface wave over the last several runs with slightly slower ejection of the mid-level jet max. Therefore, am not confident that the front will stall/lift north, with a preferred solution similar to the NAM which shows a continual southeast movement of the frontal zone through the day Saturday. Farther southwest, frontal orientation across east Texas should be more supportive for surface-based supercells along and perhaps east of the front. Therefore, have expanded 10% tornado probabilities farther southwest to address this threat. A line of storms with embedded supercells will continue southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours across Louisiana and eventually into Mississippi. The greatest significant tornado threat will likely be associated with any storms which can remain more discrete, ahead of the primary frontal development. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the central Appalachians... The severe weather threat from western Kentucky to southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland remains very conditional on overnight/morning convection from the Day 1 period. 12Z guidance varies greatly in the expansiveness of these thunderstorms tonight with stratiform rain and a stable airmass depicted by the HRRR with the NAM indicating minimal thunderstorm activity from northern Kentucky and southern Ohio eastward which will permit some instability and given the shear, potential for some severe weather threat Saturday afternoon. A slight/marginal risk seems appropriate to handle this conditional threat with some modifications likely once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more apparent. ..Bentley.. 04/04/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ArkLaTex to the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Arkansas Northeast Texas Southeast Missouri Extreme southeast Oklahoma Extreme northwest Louisiana Extreme northwest Tennessee Western Kentucky Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT FRI APR 04 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ArkLaTex to the lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Arkansas Northeast Texas Southeast Missouri Extreme southeast Oklahoma Extreme northwest Louisiana Extreme northwest Tennessee Western Kentucky Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...ArkLaTex to the lower OH Valley through tonight... An amplified midlevel trough over the Southwest will move slowly eastward, while embedded/subtle speed maxima eject northeastward over the southern Plains. Additionally, large-scale ascent will be enhanced within the right-entrance region of the upper jet over the upper Midwest. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is expected to move northward today across AR/western TN/KY in response to a weak wave developing northeastward from northeast TX toward northwest AR this afternoon and southeast MO tonight. The depth of the cool air at LZK diminished substantially from 00z to 12z, which supports northward mixing of the front and warm sector this afternoon. Within the surface warm sector, a very moist air mass is in place with low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km. Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected both along the surface front and in the open warm sector. Storm development will be most concentrated along the front where ascent will be focused and training storms are likely. More isolated storms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from AR into western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be favorable for supercells, with substantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH near or above 300 m2/s2, especially near and just southeast of the front in AR). Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moist environment in the low levels, supercells will be capable of producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this evening in the Moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail to baseball size and damaging gusts will be possible with the supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the baroclinic zone. North of the front, organized storms will be capable of producing large hail and occasional damaging gusts. ...Edwards Plateau to north TX late tonight... Similar to the previous two nights, another round of elevated thunderstorms is expected near and after 06z from the Edwards Plateau into north TX and perhaps southeast OK. The storm environment will be favorable for both elevated supercells with very large hail and bowing clusters with some potential for damaging winds to the surface. ..Thompson/Jirak.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...ArkLaTex to the lower OH Valley through tonight... An amplified midlevel trough over the Southwest will move slowly eastward, while embedded/subtle speed maxima eject northeastward over the southern Plains. Additionally, large-scale ascent will be enhanced within the right-entrance region of the upper jet over the upper Midwest. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is expected to move northward today across AR/western TN/KY in response to a weak wave developing northeastward from northeast TX toward northwest AR this afternoon and southeast MO tonight. The depth of the cool air at LZK diminished substantially from 00z to 12z, which supports northward mixing of the front and warm sector this afternoon. Within the surface warm sector, a very moist air mass is in place with low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 C/km. Daytime heating in cloud breaks will contribute to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and weakening convective inhibition by early-mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development is expected both along the surface front and in the open warm sector. Storm development will be most concentrated along the front where ascent will be focused and training storms are likely. More isolated storms will also be possible farther east in the warm sector from AR into western TN/KY by mid-late afternoon. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be favorable for supercells, with substantial low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH near or above 300 m2/s2, especially near and just southeast of the front in AR). Given the fairly strong low-level shear and a relatively moist environment in the low levels, supercells will be capable of producing a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes this afternoon into this evening in the Moderate risk area. Otherwise, very large hail to baseball size and damaging gusts will be possible with the supercells and embedded/organized storm clusters training along the baroclinic zone. North of the front, organized storms will be capable of producing large hail and occasional damaging gusts. ...Edwards Plateau to north TX late tonight... Similar to the previous two nights, another round of elevated thunderstorms is expected near and after 06z from the Edwards Plateau into north TX and perhaps southeast OK. The storm environment will be favorable for both elevated supercells with very large hail and bowing clusters with some potential for damaging winds to the surface. ..Thompson/Jirak.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are necessary, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 04/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern through the day on Friday will be highly amplified with a deep trough across the western CONUS and a broad ridge across the east. This should lead to scattered precipitation across parts of the southern Rockies and widespread precipitation across the southern Plains. There may be some brief, localized Elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest New Mexico, where fuel ERCs are at the 90th percentile. Otherwise, fire weather concerns should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0392 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112... FOR PARTS OF NERN OK...NRN AR...SERN KS...SRN AND CNTRL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0392 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...parts of nern OK...nrn AR...sern KS...srn and cntrl MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112... Valid 041206Z - 041400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 112 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail is expected to lessen with time as an evolving cluster of thunderstorms overspreads southern into central Missouri through 9-11 AM CDT. A new severe weather watch probably will not be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Rapid east-northeastward progression of the lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent and associated stronger convective development, near the leading edge of northward returning plume of elevated mixed layer air, continues. Through 14-16Z, the primary clustering of thunderstorm activity appears likely to overspread areas near and south of the Missouri Interstate 44 corridor, toward the Greater St. Louis vicinity. This is getting further removed from the stalled, sharp surface frontal zone now across/just south of the Memphis through Texarkana vicinities. However, models suggest that moisture return above the cold surface-based air is maintaining inflow of air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. With convection continuing to consolidate into less discrete elements the risk for severe hail seems likely to lessen with northeastward progression. A few gusts approaching severe limits have recently been observed to the southeast of Tulsa. However, barring the development of a more substantive surface pressure perturbation, which may not be out of the question, but seems low in probability, the risk for severe surface gusts probably will not increase. ..Kerr.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37649399 38629106 37089000 35799179 35249316 35079423 36649578 37649399 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE PRX TO 30 SSW MLC TO 30 NE MLC TO 30 W FYV TO 25 NNW FYV TO 30 SSW UMN TO 15 NNE GMJ TO 40 W JLN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392 ..DEAN..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 112 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-047-071-083-087-097-101-113-115-127-131-143- 149-041440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON MONTGOMERY NEWTON POLK POPE SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL KSC021-041440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE Read more

WW 112 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 040945Z - 041600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Far Southwest Missouri Eastern/Northeastern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday morning from 445 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across eastern/northeastern OK, northwestern AR, and southwestern MO over the next several hours. Environmental conditions support cellular storms capable of producing large hail. A few damaging gusts are possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles southwest of Mcalester OK to 50 miles east of Fayetteville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 110...WW 111... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a deep upper trough extending across the western CONUS, with an embedded shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains. Another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west and is currently moving across the central Baja Peninsula. The lead wave is forecast to continue northeastward into the central Plains throughout the day, while the second wave continues eastward into northern/central Mexico. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary currently extends from a weak low near DRT northeastward to another weak low in northeast TX. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing north of this boundary, supported by a warm-air advection from a strong low-level jet that covers much of central/eastern TX and the Lower MS Valley. Expectation is for the low-level jet to persist throughout the day, gradually shifting eastward in response to modest eastward progress of the upper troughing. Eastern portion of the stationary front should transition to a warm front while elevated thunderstorms continue north of this boundary. Northward progression of this front will allow the very moist airmass in place across east TX and LA to surge northward into more of the Mid-South/Mid MS Valley, resulting in a broad and unstable warm sector by early afternoon. At the same time, the portion of the front over TX will begin drifting southeastward as a cold front. Severe thunderstorms are expected as this front interacts with the moist and unstable warm sector in place. ...Eastern OK into the Mid MS Valley this morning... Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across eastern OK and northern/western AR are expected to shift northeastward this morning, gradually losing intensity as buoyancy weakens with northern extent. Expectation is for these storms to stay elevated north of the warm front, but there should still be enough buoyancy for large hail within the strongest storms. ...Arklatex through the Mid-South this afternoon/evening... As mentioned in the synopsis, the warm front across the region is expected to surge quickly northward, with very moist air expected to advect into the region in its wake. 70s dewpoints are already in place across east TX and northwest LA and consensus within the guidance takes these 70s dewpoints into central AR and western TN by later this afternoon. Modest heating within this airmass will bring temperatures into the upper 70s/low 80s. These surface conditions beneath a residual EML will support robust destabilization and a large area of 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. A vigorous low-level jet will extend across this region as well, resulting in robust low-level shear. Some mid-level weakness is noted in forecast hodographs, but the bulk shear is still more than enough to support supercells. A combination of convergence along the front and strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in initial development around 18Z from far west-central/southwest OK through the Arklatex into northeast TX. Given the strong buoyancy and shear, this development should mature quickly into supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong to intense tornadoes and very large (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) hail. With the increasing ascent and little to no convective inhibition, overall storm coverage will be high and storm interactions could have a large role in determining supercell longevity. That being said, environmental conditions do support the potential for long-track tornadoes. ...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A persistent low-level jet coupled with modest height falls and perhaps even some convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will support widespread elevated thunderstorms. Some hail is possible with the stronger, more consistent cores as this activity moves northeastward. There is some chance that storms along the southernmost tier of this activity begin to interact with the warm front (and potentially a weak frontal low) in the southeast MO/southern IL/far western KY vicinity. As a result, there could be a period where a more organized convective line develops, with an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts. ...Southwest TX/TX Hill Country tonight... Second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis is forecast to cross northern/central Mexico and move into the southern High Plains late tonight. Steep mid-level lapse and associated significant elevated buoyancy will be in place, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave moves into the region. Strong shear will also be in place, which will likely aid in the development of supercells capable of large to very large hail. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Several clusters of severe storms are expected from central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley through tonight. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western Arkansas into southeast Missouri, including potential for strong to potentially intense tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows a deep upper trough extending across the western CONUS, with an embedded shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains. Another embedded shortwave trough exists farther west and is currently moving across the central Baja Peninsula. The lead wave is forecast to continue northeastward into the central Plains throughout the day, while the second wave continues eastward into northern/central Mexico. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary currently extends from a weak low near DRT northeastward to another weak low in northeast TX. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing north of this boundary, supported by a warm-air advection from a strong low-level jet that covers much of central/eastern TX and the Lower MS Valley. Expectation is for the low-level jet to persist throughout the day, gradually shifting eastward in response to modest eastward progress of the upper troughing. Eastern portion of the stationary front should transition to a warm front while elevated thunderstorms continue north of this boundary. Northward progression of this front will allow the very moist airmass in place across east TX and LA to surge northward into more of the Mid-South/Mid MS Valley, resulting in a broad and unstable warm sector by early afternoon. At the same time, the portion of the front over TX will begin drifting southeastward as a cold front. Severe thunderstorms are expected as this front interacts with the moist and unstable warm sector in place. ...Eastern OK into the Mid MS Valley this morning... Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across eastern OK and northern/western AR are expected to shift northeastward this morning, gradually losing intensity as buoyancy weakens with northern extent. Expectation is for these storms to stay elevated north of the warm front, but there should still be enough buoyancy for large hail within the strongest storms. ...Arklatex through the Mid-South this afternoon/evening... As mentioned in the synopsis, the warm front across the region is expected to surge quickly northward, with very moist air expected to advect into the region in its wake. 70s dewpoints are already in place across east TX and northwest LA and consensus within the guidance takes these 70s dewpoints into central AR and western TN by later this afternoon. Modest heating within this airmass will bring temperatures into the upper 70s/low 80s. These surface conditions beneath a residual EML will support robust destabilization and a large area of 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. A vigorous low-level jet will extend across this region as well, resulting in robust low-level shear. Some mid-level weakness is noted in forecast hodographs, but the bulk shear is still more than enough to support supercells. A combination of convergence along the front and strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to result in initial development around 18Z from far west-central/southwest OK through the Arklatex into northeast TX. Given the strong buoyancy and shear, this development should mature quickly into supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong to intense tornadoes and very large (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) hail. With the increasing ascent and little to no convective inhibition, overall storm coverage will be high and storm interactions could have a large role in determining supercell longevity. That being said, environmental conditions do support the potential for long-track tornadoes. ...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening... A persistent low-level jet coupled with modest height falls and perhaps even some convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will support widespread elevated thunderstorms. Some hail is possible with the stronger, more consistent cores as this activity moves northeastward. There is some chance that storms along the southernmost tier of this activity begin to interact with the warm front (and potentially a weak frontal low) in the southeast MO/southern IL/far western KY vicinity. As a result, there could be a period where a more organized convective line develops, with an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts. ...Southwest TX/TX Hill Country tonight... Second shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis is forecast to cross northern/central Mexico and move into the southern High Plains late tonight. Steep mid-level lapse and associated significant elevated buoyancy will be in place, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave moves into the region. Strong shear will also be in place, which will likely aid in the development of supercells capable of large to very large hail. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/04/2025 Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE DUA TO 30 ENE ADM TO 35 NNW ADM. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-027-029-063-087-123-125-133-041240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CLEVELAND COAL HUGHES MCCLAIN PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0391 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111... FOR ERN OK...NWRN AR...SWRN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0391 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0418 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Areas affected...ern OK...nwrn AR...swrn MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111... Valid 040918Z - 041115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111 continues. SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development will continue to rapidly spread east-northeastward toward the northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri Interstate 44 corridor, with a few cells posing a risk for severe hail. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Strongest lower/mid-tropospheric forcing for ascent ahead of a short wave perturbation progressing northeast of the Texas South Plains is forecast to rapidly spread northeast of the Red River toward the Ozark Plateau through daybreak. This includes lift associated with warm advection near the northern periphery of a plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer, which may also spread north of the Red River through 11-13Z. As this occurs, strongest thunderstorms may tend to redevelop north-northeastward into the Interstate 44 vicinity of northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri, where similar thermodynamic and convective layer shear profiles as upstream may support a continuing risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 04/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 36339593 37199321 36069269 34639485 33899592 33989758 34889773 36339593 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0111 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW PRX TO 40 E SPS TO 60 WSW SPS. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 111 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-027-029-033-049-063-067-069-085-087-095-099-123- 125-133-137-141-041140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CLEVELAND COAL COTTON GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC077-485-487-041140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 111 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 040715Z - 041500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-Central Oklahoma Northwest and Far North-Central Texas * Effective this Friday morning from 215 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms are expected to spread northeastward into the region over the next several hours. Moderate buoyancy and moderate to strong vertical shear will support elevated supercells capable of large to very large hail. A few strong wind gusts are possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX to 35 miles northeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 110... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0112 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0112 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MWL TO 45 WNW SJT TO 25 SSE BGS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 110 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04/10Z. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-083-151-207-253-353-417-431-441-447-041000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE COLEMAN FISHER HASKELL JONES NOLAN SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MWL TO 45 WNW SJT TO 25 SSE BGS. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 110 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04/10Z. ..KERR..04/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 110 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC081-083-151-207-253-353-417-431-441-447-041000- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COKE COLEMAN FISHER HASKELL JONES NOLAN SHACKELFORD STERLING TAYLOR THROCKMORTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the eastern Carolinas, southeast Georgia and Florida. It appears that pockets of moderate instability will be possible ahead of the front by midday. Considering that strong deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the Southeast, thunderstorms that form near the front could develop an isolated severe threat. Severe wind gusts would be possible near the leading edge of a convective line. However, the timing of the cold front as it passes through the Southeast remains questionable, and uncertainty exists concerning instability, suggesting predictability is low for Monday. On Tuesday, surface high pressure is forecast to move across the central and eastern U.S. Relatively dry and stable air should limit any severe potential across the continental U.S Tuesday. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... From Wednesday to Friday, a cold front and an associated mid-level trough is forecast to move southeastward across the central and eastern U.S. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough near the front, beginning Wednesday night in the central Plains. The most reliable model forecasts suggest that the most likely area for an isolated severe threat on Thursday would be from the central Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. The severe potential is forecast to shift eastward into the Carolinas on Friday. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. During the mid to late week, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak ahead of the front. Also, the timing of the trough is still in question. This suggest that predictability is low from Wednesday to Friday. Read more