SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered convection may persist in portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible this evening into Monday morning. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough within the Plains will continue eastward progress through tonight. Mid-level winds may gradually increase across portions of the Southeast. Convection along the surface cold front will likely persist into Monday morning given continued forcing for ascent and a very moist low-level airmass. ...Southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle Vicinity... Convection continues this evening across the region. Lightning trends further inland from the Gulf have generally trended down over the last few hours. Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints remain south of convective outflow in southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and adjacent southwest Georgia. Given the moist airmass in place and continued theta-e advection into the region, MLCIN should remain minimal through tonight. 850 mb winds are expected to maintain their intensity ahead of the convection and area VADs continue to show some low-level hodograph enlargement. Storm intensity through the overnight is not certain given the storm mode, gradual boundary-layer cooling, and weak lapse rates (observed in the BMX sounding this evening). However, given the forcing, strong deep-layer shear, and adequate low-level shear, the environment will remain conditionally favorable for a tornado or two into Monday morning. The 5% tornado probabilities (Slight risk) will be maintained for this reason. The strongest convection may also produce isolated wind damage. ..Wendt.. 04/07/2025 Read more

MD 0430 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of south and central AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062318Z - 070115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or a tornado may persist through the evening. DISCUSSION...Despite rich boundary-layer moisture and the presence of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, convection has struggled to remain organized across parts of AL early this evening, possibly due to generally weak lapse rates and some tendency for storms to be undercut by outflow. However, deep-layer shear remains favorable for organized convection, and a persistent 30-40 kt low-level jet is supporting some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH. One cell near Montgomery has recently intensified near an outflow boundary, while an occasionally strong storm cluster persists near/east of Mobile. There remains some potential for a few cells or clusters to acquire at least transient organization through the evening, and pose a threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado. Given the longer-term trends, new watch issuance in the short term is considered unlikely. However, if trends begin to support more organized upscale growth or sustained rotating cells, then watch issuance may become possible. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30188865 30978805 31318785 33128643 33208584 33098545 32018539 31618549 31298574 30918610 30708663 30458718 30188865 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MOB TO 35 NW GZH TO 20 SSE AUO TO 30 SE ATL TO 30 E ATL TO 25 ESE AHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428 ..LYONS..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099- 109-113-062140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE PIKE RUSSELL FLC033-091-113-062140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GAC021-035-053-079-145-159-169-171-193-197-207-211-215-217-225- Read more

WW 132 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 061500Z - 062300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Alabama Florida Panhandle Western and Northern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1000 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storm potential, including a few supercells ahead of a convective line, may increase into the afternoon across the region, with the strongest storms posing a tornado risk aside from damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Atlanta GA to 50 miles east of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remain possible through this evening across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...20Z Update... The only appreciable change with this update was to trim severe probabilities behind multiple ongoing convective clusters across the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the primary severe concerns with this activity through about mid evening, after which thunderstorms should tend to weaken. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remain possible through this evening across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...20Z Update... The only appreciable change with this update was to trim severe probabilities behind multiple ongoing convective clusters across the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the primary severe concerns with this activity through about mid evening, after which thunderstorms should tend to weaken. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 6 19:37:03 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms may occur Tuesday night over extreme southern Florida. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Tuesday, a deep upper trough will exist over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a surface high spreading over much of the eastern CONUS and Gulf of America. To the south, a southern-stream wave will move across the Gulf and into FL overnight. Farther west, upper ridging will occur over the southwestern states, with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough affecting the northern Rockies and High Plains. ...Far southern FL... A plume of midlevel moisture will stretch from the eastern Gulf across FL for much of the day, with showers and scattered thunderstorms both ahead of and north of the southward-moving cold front. Forecast soundings reveal weak low-level winds, and marginal levels of instability due to poor lapse rates aloft. For these reasons severe storms are not forecast over most of FL. The exception may be overnight as the upper wave approaches. This may result in increasing low-level winds and shear, though still not strong. However, the increasing lift and moistening may result in a cluster or two of stronger storms, possibly affecting parts of the Keys or extreme southern FL with wind gust potential. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW MOB TO 15 SW MGM TO 20 NNW LGC TO 10 SSE AHN. ..LYONS..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-017-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069- 081-087-097-099-109-113-129-062040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON MOBILE MONROE PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON FLC033-091-113-062040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GAC035-053-077-113-145-149-151-171-197-199-215-217-231-239-255- Read more

WW 132 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 061500Z - 062300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Alabama Florida Panhandle Western and Northern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1000 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storm potential, including a few supercells ahead of a convective line, may increase into the afternoon across the region, with the strongest storms posing a tornado risk aside from damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Atlanta GA to 50 miles east of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The Elevated fire weather area was expanded slightly south/southeast across portions of the Florida peninsula based on the latest high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. While minimum RH values are forecast to be only marginally lowered (generally near or greater than 40%), sustained south/southwesterly surface winds around 15-20 mph (with stronger gusts) overlapping receptive fuels (high KBDI and ERC percentiles) will promote at least a few hours of Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon/evening. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's (Monday's) fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will be moving eastward across parts of the southeast US during the day on Monday with a surface low pressure area pushing a cold front southeastward towards Florida. Flow ahead of this surface front may be relatively strong, with gusts of 25-30 mph and RH in the 35-40% range, though there is some uncertainty on the RH values, given surface parcel trajectories off of the warm ocean. This may provide a limiting factor for the fire weather risk. However, given receptive fuels in the area (near 90th percentile ERCs), have included an Elevated area across parts of the Florida peninsula. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast on Monday, with midlevel jet max intensifying as it begins to phase with a deeper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will develop over the central Carolinas extending south into GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints maintained. In concert with the strengthening midlevel wave, a 40-50 kt low-level jet is forecast as well, with effective SRH over 200 m2/s2. Heating will steepen lapse rates and result in MUCAPE to around 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the western Carolinas into central GA at midday. Scattered showers and storms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front early, with rejuvenation potential as the activity and lift encounter the warming air mass to the east. The primary mitigating issue will be very poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit updraft strength. Still, favorable diurnal timing and favorable shear should result in a at least isolated severe storms with mainly wind potential. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms during the afternoon. ..Jewell.. 04/06/2025 Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PIB TO 25 SW SEM TO 35 N ATL. ..LYONS..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-017-025-031-035-039-041-045-051-053-061-067- 069-081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-129-061840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON FLC033-091-113-061840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z Today's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Elevated area across the Florida peninsula based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. As of 1630 UTC, surface observations across the Florida peninsula indicate sustained southerly winds of 10-15 mph amidst RH values of 50-60%, with surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Strong surface heating over the next few hours should lead to very warm (near record) temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and corresponding minimum RH values of 35-45%. Given receptive fuels across the area, Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely for a few hours this afternoon/evening before improving quickly by late evening as temperatures decrease (RH values increase) and surface winds subside. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the southern Plains through the day on Sunday, inducing a surface low pressure area across the southeast CONUS. The southerly flow ahead of this surface low will bring a shallow modified air mass onshore across the southeast US, and strong mixing will lower the RH. In particular, across parts of the Florida peninsula, RH is expected to be near 35-40% in the afternoon with some breezy conditions. Given high KBDI values in the area, as well as fuel ERCs near the 90th percentile, have maintained an Elevated area on the Florida peninsula. Farther north across parts of Georgia, fuels are not as receptive and RH is a bit higher, so have held off on introducing Elevated highlights there. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat exists across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/06/2025 Read more

MD 0425 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 131... FOR PARTS OF SERN MS THROUGH CNTRL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0425 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of sern MS through cntrl AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 131... Valid 061234Z - 061430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues. SUMMARY...Convection may continue to undergo further organization and intensification through 9-10 AM CDT, accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts, and a continuing risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...At least a bit broader, lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation appears to be evolving, perhaps including a surface meso-low now migrating east-northeastward into/across the Demopolis AL vicinity. Latest Rapid Refresh now indicates a more prominent south-southwesterly speed maximum associated with this feature, including 50+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Although moisture characterized by mid 60s+ surface dew points across central Alabama, between Montgomery and Birmingham still appear to supporting only modest CAPE (around 500 J/kg sampled in 12Z BMX sounding), low-level moisture advection and at least some boundary layer warming are likely to contribute to further destabilization in advance of the convection during the next few hours. Inflow of this air mass may be sufficient to support at least a gradual further intensification of activity during the next few hours, accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface gusts and a few tornadoes. Discrete thunderstorm development is also being maintained near/just ahead of the southern flank of the evolving convective system, and the occasional intensification of these cells, before merging into the line, may also be accompanied by increasing potential for a tornado near the Selma/Montgomery vicinities through mid morning. ..Kerr.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 33198688 33358539 32058702 31338798 31068892 32338827 33198688 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more