SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible today across parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Positively titled upper troughing currently extends from Ontario through central Mexico, with a shortwave trough embedded within this larger trough from the Ozark Plateau through central Mexico. Strong mid-level flow exists throughout the eastern periphery of the parent troughing, with a jet max of 90+ kt at 500 mb extending from the Mid-South into New England. Current surface pattern features a low near the northern TN/NC border intersection, with another weaker low farther south near the ATL vicinity. A modest cold front extends between these two lows, becoming a bit more defined south of the second low due to outflow augmentation from the ongoing storms. A warm front also extend eastward from the northern low across southern VA. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast states before losing amplitude amid the more confluent flow across the Carolinas. The primary surface low is expected to move east-northeastward, with the cold front making steady eastward progress. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/Carolinas... Airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line is currently characterized by mostly mid 60s dewpoints, although some low 70s exists across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. This low-level moisture is supporting modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Some strengthening of the storms within the line has been noted over the past hour as it interacts with a narrow corridor of 70s dewpoints across far southwest GA and the central FL Panhandle. Bowing segments and embedded rotation has been observed briefly as updraft intensity modulates. Given that these higher dewpoints exist in a relatively narrow corridor, the threat for damaging gusts and/or brief tornadoes is expected to remain short-lived this morning. Modest buoyancy is expected downstream of the cold front throughout the day, with daytime heating helping to maintain this buoyancy farther eastward into southeast GA and southern SC where lower dewpoints are anticipated. In addition to this buoyancy, large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to strengthen as well, both from the approaching shortwave trough and favorable proximity within the right entrance region of the strengthening mid-level flow. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow will persist throughout the day. All of these factors suggest the ongoing convective line should be maintained as it moves eastward throughout the day, with some additional strengthening and organization possible, particularly if daytime heating does not overly mix the boundary layer. Deeper convection is expected to expand northward along the front moves into the Carolina Piedmont. A linear mode will likely be maintained, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk. The strength of the low-level flow suggest some tornado potential exists as well. ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly east-southeastward across the Mid MS and OH Valleys on Day 4/Thursday. Ahead of the trough, partially modified Gulf moisture will be returning ahead of a related front moving across the Lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front across parts of the OH/TN Valleys, where weak buoyancy and strong midlevel westerly flow will support an isolated severe-storm risk. However, the limited low-level moisture and weak/veered low-level flow should limit storm intensity. By Day 5/Friday, the midlevel trough will take on a neutral tilt as it moves slowly eastward and amplifies across the Appalachians. Preceding the trough, strong south-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the partially modified Gulf air mass over the coastal Mid-Atlantic -- where isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of a related surface front. Similar to Day 4/Thursday, the overall threat appears too marginal for severe probabilities at this time. ...Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday... A midlevel trough and strong west-southwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, and continue across the Midwest/Great Lakes on Day 8/Monday. In response, boundary-layer moisture will return northward ahead of a related lee trough across the southern and central Plains on Day 7/Sunday, though a strong EML should limit thunderstorm potential. By Day 8/Monday, guidance varies considerably on the evolution of the midlevel trough and related warm sector, limiting confidence in overall severe-storm potential. Read more

MD 0432 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PNHDL...SERN AL...SWRN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Areas affected...parts of the FL PNHDL...sern AL...swrn GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 070713Z - 070945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for briefly intensifying storms posing the risk for a tornado or locally strong surface gusts likely will continue into the 3-5 AM CDT time frame. The risk still appears low and isolated enough that a severe weather watch is not necessary, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...There has been little change during the past few hours, despite the continuing presence of capping layers aloft, convection persists along a slow moving front and a pre-frontal wind confluence zone slowly shifting eastward across southeastern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. There remain continuing attempts at more discrete deep convective development ahead of the low-level confluence zone, which currently appears to narrowly precede the surface front across areas near/west of Fort Walton Beach, before intersection the front (or conglomerate outflow) near/northeast of Crestview. Embedded within a narrow pre-frontal plume of seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including surface dew points around 70 F, and characterized by CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg), and strong shear (including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs beneath 30-40 kt southerly flow around 850 mb), weak rotation remains evident within cells along and ahead of the confluent zone. It appears that this may be coinciding with a weak frontal wave developing inland, northeastward across southeastern Alabama, during the next few hours. And potential for one or two of these vortices to briefly intensify to tornadic strength probably will continue across the Panama City FL and Dothan AL into Albany GA vicinities through 09-11Z. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 29788721 31098612 31318566 31808492 31178478 29918549 29418643 29788721 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the the Middle Mississippi Valley and northern High Plains, though organized severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An amplifying/intensifying midlevel trough will track southeastward from the northern Plains toward the Lower Ohio Valley through the period. A related surface cyclone will advance eastward from the central Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, while a trailing cold front moves eastward across the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough and surface cyclone, low-level moisture will be limited, though cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel lapse rates will result in weak instability. Given strengthening DCVA and low-level warm advection, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible, with a focus over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Farther west, steep deep-layer lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy over the northern High Plains, where ascent in the left-exit region of an upper jet will promote isolated thunderstorms. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms may occur over far southern Florida and the Keys on Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Gulf during the day, and overspread the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. At the same time, a cold front will move southeastward across southern Florida through the afternoon. Farther west, a low-amplitude midlevel trough will track eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Southern Florida and the Keys... Along/ahead of the southward-moving cold front, a moist/uncapped air mass will promote showers and thunderstorms across central/southern Florida throughout the day. However, poor midlevel lapse rates/weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit storm intensity. By late afternoon into the overnight hours, effective shear will increase to around 30 kt ahead of the midlevel trough, which may promote a couple strong/severe storm clusters capable of locally damaging gusts across far southeast Florida and the Keys. However, deep west-southwesterly flow and a developing frontal wave over the Gulf Stream should tend to focus the stronger storms offshore. ...Northern High Plains... Ahead of the low-amplitude midlevel trough, low/mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the afternoon, while effective shear increases to around 30 kt. Weak instability limits confidence in the severe threat, though locally strong wind gusts could accompany convection as it spreads eastward amid the steep lapse rates through the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible Monday afternoon across parts of northern Florida and the southern Atlantic Seaboard. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Mississippi Valley into the East Coast by Tuesday morning. Some intensification of the mid-level jet is expected as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak surface low in the southern Appalachians will deepen as the jet intensifies. This feature will move through western North Carolina and along the North Carolina/Virginia border during the morning/early afternoon. An east-west warm front will accompany the surface low with a cold front extending southwestward into Georgia/North Florida. The cold front will be nearly offshore by late afternoon. ...North Florida/Southeast Georgia/South Carolina... Convection is likely to be ongoing Monday morning in parts of the Southeast and the Florida Panhandle. This activity along the front will progress eastward along with the upper trough. The low-level jet is expected to shift northeastward with time. It is possible that most favorable low-level shear/tornado environment will exist when convection is diurnally weak. That being said, 850 mb winds will still remain moderately strong even into the afternoon. Heating ahead of the convection (promoting around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) may help to reinvigorate it. Effective shear, parallel to the cold front, will be 40-45 kts. Organized storms will likely be mostly linear in character with perhaps embedded supercells. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should mitigate large hail potential, particularly with the expected linear storm modes. ...North Carolina into far southeast Virginia... Along with similarly poor mid-level lapse rates as farther south, stronger warm air advection into warm frontal zone suggests greater potential for early day precipitation and cloud cover. Even so, the track of the surface low may allow rich moisture to remain in northern North Carolina into far southern Virginia. While limited destabilization will most likely keep the threat for isolated wind damage and a brief tornado marginal, the low-level jet will be stronger with northward extent and helicity will be enhanced near the warm front. If greater heating can occur, there a small corridor of higher tornado potential could exist. ..Wendt/Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will transition toward more zonal flow tomorrow (Tuesday) as surface high pressure overspreads the eastern U.S. and a surface cyclone develops over the central Plains. Isallobaric flow from the cyclone, along with downslope flow, will support Elevated-equivalent surface conditions along portions of the central and southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Despite the presence of such dry and breezy conditions, fuel receptiveness is expected to be quite marginal given recent wetting rainfall, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as upper ridging builds in over the Southwest, supporting a cold front moving offshore as surface lee troughing develops along the High Plains. Across the Florida Peninsula, the passage of the cold front will support 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds as RH drops to 35-45 percent during the afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained in this region given the presence of fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 04/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered convection may persist in portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated wind damage and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible this evening into Monday morning. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough within the Plains will continue eastward progress through tonight. Mid-level winds may gradually increase across portions of the Southeast. Convection along the surface cold front will likely persist into Monday morning given continued forcing for ascent and a very moist low-level airmass. ...Southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle Vicinity... Convection continues this evening across the region. Lightning trends further inland from the Gulf have generally trended down over the last few hours. Upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints remain south of convective outflow in southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle and adjacent southwest Georgia. Given the moist airmass in place and continued theta-e advection into the region, MLCIN should remain minimal through tonight. 850 mb winds are expected to maintain their intensity ahead of the convection and area VADs continue to show some low-level hodograph enlargement. Storm intensity through the overnight is not certain given the storm mode, gradual boundary-layer cooling, and weak lapse rates (observed in the BMX sounding this evening). However, given the forcing, strong deep-layer shear, and adequate low-level shear, the environment will remain conditionally favorable for a tornado or two into Monday morning. The 5% tornado probabilities (Slight risk) will be maintained for this reason. The strongest convection may also produce isolated wind damage. ..Wendt.. 04/07/2025 Read more

MD 0430 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of south and central AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062318Z - 070115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and/or a tornado may persist through the evening. DISCUSSION...Despite rich boundary-layer moisture and the presence of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, convection has struggled to remain organized across parts of AL early this evening, possibly due to generally weak lapse rates and some tendency for storms to be undercut by outflow. However, deep-layer shear remains favorable for organized convection, and a persistent 30-40 kt low-level jet is supporting some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH. One cell near Montgomery has recently intensified near an outflow boundary, while an occasionally strong storm cluster persists near/east of Mobile. There remains some potential for a few cells or clusters to acquire at least transient organization through the evening, and pose a threat for locally damaging wind and/or a tornado. Given the longer-term trends, new watch issuance in the short term is considered unlikely. However, if trends begin to support more organized upscale growth or sustained rotating cells, then watch issuance may become possible. ..Dean/Hart.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30188865 30978805 31318785 33128643 33208584 33098545 32018539 31618549 31298574 30918610 30708663 30458718 30188865 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the southwestern U.S. Day 3/Tuesday through Day 6/Friday, as a low-amplitude mid-level trough overspreads portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. A potentially stronger/deeper mid-level trough is forecast to move across the western U.S. beginning Day 6/Friday and over the Central U.S. through Day 8/Sunday. ...Day 3/Tuesday - Day 5/Thursday: Southern/Central High Plains... An increase in fire weather conditions is possible midweek across portions of the southern/central High Plains, as strong flow associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough impinges on the area. While warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast, uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness (owing to recent rainfall) and a relatively marginal overlap of reduced RH and stronger winds precludes Critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday: Southwest into the Great Basin eastward to the High Plains... Forecast model guidance continues to exhibit relatively poor run-to-run and inter-model consistency regarding the evolution of the aforementioned mid-level trough across the western U.S. Day 6/Friday through at least Day 8/Sunday. While increasing fire weather conditions are probable, the probability for Critical fire weather conditions remains less than 40% due to uncertainty regarding the placement and timing of overlapping critical wind, rh, and fuels. ..Elliott.. 04/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0132 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW MOB TO 35 NW GZH TO 20 SSE AUO TO 30 SE ATL TO 30 E ATL TO 25 ESE AHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428 ..LYONS..04/06/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 132 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-011-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-099- 109-113-062140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE PIKE RUSSELL FLC033-091-113-062140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GAC021-035-053-079-145-159-169-171-193-197-207-211-215-217-225- Read more

WW 132 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 061500Z - 062300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Alabama Florida Panhandle Western and Northern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1000 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storm potential, including a few supercells ahead of a convective line, may increase into the afternoon across the region, with the strongest storms posing a tornado risk aside from damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Atlanta GA to 50 miles east of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 131... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remain possible through this evening across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia. ...20Z Update... The only appreciable change with this update was to trim severe probabilities behind multiple ongoing convective clusters across the Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the primary severe concerns with this activity through about mid evening, after which thunderstorms should tend to weaken. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/ ...Southeast... A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near 70F) and some additional heating will lead to further destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist through at least early/mid-evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont... Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce isolated wind damage. Read more