SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. This will yield a broadening upper trough from the north-central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the lead wave will foster a near 990-mb cyclone tracking from Lake Superior to the ON/QC border. A cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A high shear-low CAPE setup is anticipated on Monday afternoon and evening, despite the presence of an expanding EML across the region. Poleward moisture quality beneath the EML should remain sub-optimal, but will be improved relative to prior days. The drier spectrum of guidance appears more reasonable with mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dew points advecting as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley, ahead of the surface cold front. Guidance is reasonably consistent that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop in early to mid-afternoon across the Central OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls overspread the confined but destabilizing warm/moist sector. With already strong 700-500 mb southwesterlies strengthening further, fast-moving/highly sheared convection is anticipated. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. This setup may yield a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster spreading east across the central Appalachians. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazards. East of the higher terrain, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat for isolated damaging gusts given the strong wind fields, before convection becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will further amplify over the Upper Great Lakes eastward towards the Ottawa Valley through early Tuesday. In its wake, a separate shortwave impulse and attendant mid-level jetlet will dive southeast across the northern Great Plains towards the Lower OH Valley. This will yield a broadening upper trough from the north-central into the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the lead wave will foster a near 990-mb cyclone tracking from Lake Superior to the ON/QC border. A cold front will arc south across the Lower Great Lakes and then southwestward through the Mid-South by late Monday. ...OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States... A high shear-low CAPE setup is anticipated on Monday afternoon and evening, despite the presence of an expanding EML across the region. Poleward moisture quality beneath the EML should remain sub-optimal, but will be improved relative to prior days. The drier spectrum of guidance appears more reasonable with mid to perhaps upper 50s surface dew points advecting as far northeast as the Upper OH Valley, ahead of the surface cold front. Guidance is reasonably consistent that at least isolated thunderstorms should develop in early to mid-afternoon across the Central OH Valley vicinity as mid-level height falls overspread the confined but destabilizing warm/moist sector. With already strong 700-500 mb southwesterlies strengthening further, fast-moving/highly sheared convection is anticipated. Despite veered surface winds, low-level hodograph curvature should be moderately enlarged. This setup may yield a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster spreading east across the central Appalachians. A couple tornadoes and damaging winds appear to be the primary hazards. East of the higher terrain, remnant steep low-level lapse rates may support a threat for isolated damaging gusts given the strong wind fields, before convection becomes increasingly elevated Monday night. ..Grams.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... As an upper-level trough moves into the northern Plains on Sunday, some moderate mid-level flow will extend into the southern Rockies. A broad surface trough will evolve into a deepening low in the Upper Midwest and in the southern High Plains. A cold front will move through the northern/central Plains. ...Southwest into southern High Plains and Central Texas... With the deepening surface low and stronger mid-level winds than on Saturday, a broader area of 20 mph winds is expected. RH could again reach single digits locally. Otherwise, 10-15% will be more common. Critical fire weather is expected from southeast Arizona, southern/central New Mexico, into parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. ...Nebraska... Though the front will be through the area, cooler temperatures will tend to lag behind as strong northwesterly flow--with some downslope component--and surface heating occur into part of the afternoon. Winds of 20-25 mph, with higher gusts, appear possible. RH during the afternoon is somewhat uncertain, but temperatures in this pattern should end up warmer than guidance suggests. With that in mind, the warmer/drier guidance was weighted more for this forecast. RH in this scenario of 15-25% is probable. Elevated fire weather is possible given the ongoing drought and dry grasses. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... With an upper-level trough approaching the northern/central Rockies today, a surface low will deepen in the central Plains. Dry and windy conditions will extend from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. Dry, down-peninsula winds behind a cold front will increase fire danger in parts of central/southern Florida. ...Southwest into southern/central High Plains... A broad area of 15-25 mph winds will be possible in these regions. The higher wind speeds will primarily occur within the higher terrain of the Southwest into the central/southern Rockies. The upper-level trough will be displaced farther northward and shortwave ridging aloft will keep wind speeds modest to moderate. Winds will be driven be the deepening central Plains surface cyclone. RH in some locations could reach into the single digits. More broadly, 10-20% is expected. Critical fire weather is most likely in the Raton Mesa vicinity where surface winds west of the surface trough will be around 20 mph for a longer duration. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected. ...Florida... RH during the afternoon will likely fall to 20-30% in parts of central/southern Florida. Winds will not be overly strong, but a broad area of near 10 mph appears probable. Dry fuels will support elevated fire weather. ...Central Plains... With the low-level jet expected to maintain some intensity into the afternoon, gusty southerly winds will persist through the afternoon. Moisture return will occur, but Friday night observed dewpoints in the southern Plains would at least suggest some drier conditions are probable on the western/northern flanks of the initial return flow. Stronger winds will extend eastward, but confidence in more than a locally elevated threat farther east is low. Areas of sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RH of 15-25% will be possible from western Kansas into central/eastern Nebraska. Dry grasses will support an increase risk of fire spread. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes... Isolated, elevated thunderstorms are expected to be the predominant convective scenario on Sunday. An amplifying shortwave trough will move east across northern portions of the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. This will yield deepening of a surface cyclone from the central Plains to Lake Superior. Despite this amplification, poor quality boundary-layer moisture return relative to a stout EML appears likely to inhibit surface-based storm development through the period. Thin, uncapped buoyancy will probably be relegated to parcels around 700 mb. This will expand east during the day from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Small hail is possible, mainly across the Upper MS Valley, where fast flow will exist in the cloud-bearing layer. ...CO to MO... Isolated thunderstorms are possible in CO by late afternoon Sunday within a post-frontal environment characterized by limited low-level moisture and meager buoyancy. Very isolated thunderstorms may develop Sunday night into Monday morning with eastward extent across KS to MO. Scant elevated buoyancy may develop as 700-mb frontogenesis strengthens within a highly diffluent upper-level flow regime, atop an increasingly post-frontal stable surface. ..Grams.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills from this afternoon into the evening. ...Southeast Montana/Northern Wyoming/Western South Dakota... A shortwave mid-level trough will move eastward across the Pacific Northwest today, as an associated 50 to 60 knot jet streak translates eastward into the northern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen across eastern Wyoming, which will increase low-level convergence across parts of the northern High Plains. Surface dewpoints in the 40s F will contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm, thunderstorm development is first expected in the Big Horn Mountains during the early afternoon, with these storms moving eastward into the lower elevations of southeast Montana. Additional storms will likely develop in northern Wyoming, closer to the mid-level speed max. RAP forecast soundings near the Montana-Wyoming state line by mid to late afternoon have MLCAPE increasing to around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 55 knots, and 0-3 km lapse rates in the 9.5 to 10 C/km range. This environment should support a threat for severe wind gusts within the stronger downdrafts, with the greatest severe threat occurring in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the Atlantic Seaboard south-southwestward into northern and central Florida. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows a trough over the eastern U.S. with several minor perturbations embedded in the trough. At the surface, a low is located off the coast of Virginia, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from near the coast of North Carolina into northern Florida. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front this evening. A strong thunderstorm will be possible near an axis of instability over the north-central Florida Peninsula over the next hour or two. However, the airmass will become more stable, limiting the potential for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the Atlantic Seaboard south-southwestward into northern and central Florida. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor shows a trough over the eastern U.S. with several minor perturbations embedded in the trough. At the surface, a low is located off the coast of Virginia, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from near the coast of North Carolina into northern Florida. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and near the front this evening. A strong thunderstorm will be possible near an axis of instability over the north-central Florida Peninsula over the next hour or two. However, the airmass will become more stable, limiting the potential for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 04/12/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 11 22:15:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0446 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Areas affected...northern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112051Z - 112315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Several storms may produce small hail and locally gusty winds through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have risen into the upper 70s to near 80 F this afternoon, as temperatures aloft continue to cool. A very steep lapse rate environment has developed with 500 mb temperature to -20 C into parts of the FL Panhandle and northern FL. A few thunderstorms have already formed along the surface trough extending from the Panhandle into extreme southeast GA, with indications of small/non-severe hail. Moisture is the limiting factor to storm severity today, with low dewpoints spreading southward. Even so, convective coverage may continue to increase over the next couple hours as lapse rates are maximized. Although low PWAT overall, the deepened boundary layer along with low freezing levels and lengthy hodographs will work together to produce primarily non-severe hail. Boundary layer winds remain relatively weak, therefore any strong to potentially damaging gust would likely be localized (but possibly aided by cold hail-laden outflow). ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30028555 30338467 30628282 31068144 30828138 30158126 29728107 28948262 29128307 29598353 29928389 29898419 29768449 29568500 29628522 29768546 30028555 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A digging upper-level trough over the Northern Plains on day 3/Sunday will translate east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region through day 5/Tuesday. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer south of the aforementioned upper-level trough will result in likely Critical fire weather conditions across a large portion of the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains on day 3/Sunday where dry, drought stressed fuels exist. Strong northwest winds in a dry, post-frontal environment in addition to a lack of precipitation and persistent receptive fuels could bring Critical fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains on day 4/Monday. Persistent westerly flow aloft along with a mid-level short wave trough is expected to keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains from day 5/Tuesday through day 7/Thursday. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A digging upper-level trough over the Northern Plains on day 3/Sunday will translate east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region through day 5/Tuesday. Enhanced westerly mid-level flow atop a dry, deeply mixed boundary layer south of the aforementioned upper-level trough will result in likely Critical fire weather conditions across a large portion of the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains on day 3/Sunday where dry, drought stressed fuels exist. Strong northwest winds in a dry, post-frontal environment in addition to a lack of precipitation and persistent receptive fuels could bring Critical fire weather conditions to portions of the Central Plains on day 4/Monday. Persistent westerly flow aloft along with a mid-level short wave trough is expected to keep at least an elevated fire weather threat across the Desert Southwest and southern High Plains from day 5/Tuesday through day 7/Thursday. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded Elevated highlights into portions of Arizona partially due to increasingly dry fuel indices along the Mogollon Rim and into northwestern Arizona within an ongoing severe to extreme drought in some areas. Critical fire weather threat is still expected across northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Otherwise, the forecast (see below) for Elevated fire weather conditions remains on track across the Florida Peninsula. Dewpoints in the 40s within a shallow boundary layer should limit minimum relative humidity values in the 25-35 percent range across portions of the Midwest tomorrow. Southerly return flow of 20-30 mph across the area could promote localized areas of Elevated fire weather conditions. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern should transition from western/central ridge and eastern trough to western trough, central ridge, and eastern trough. This will be the result of the eastern trough continuing to move east toward the Atlantic at the same time as the western trough continues east. This ridge should stretch from northern Mexico into the Great Lakes, with a shortwave trough digging southeast into the northern Rocky Mountains. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Southern Plains in response to an increase in westerly mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned Northern Rocky Mountain trough and a subtropical jet. This downslope flow will allow relative humidity to fall into the low teens (locally into the upper-single digits) with gusty winds to near 35 mph across the Critical area. Surrounding the Critical area will be a large area of Elevated. Within the elevated, surface winds may not be as great as in the corridor highlighted by the Critical area. This, coupled with ERC values generally less than 80%, should preclude the need for Critical delineation. ... Florida Peninsula ... A dry, post-frontal airmass should be in place across much of the region on Saturday. Much of the peninsula will see little if any precipitation associated with the frontal passage on Friday. Thus, fuels should continue to dry. The dry airmass should allow for sufficiently strong flow to mix down to the surface to support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential will continue this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...Discussion... The ongoing forecast continues to reflect the evolving convective scenario across parts of the southeastern CONUS. Within the broader area of convection across this region, the strongest storms ongoing at this time are indicated across portions central and eastern North Carolina, where 500 to 1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE has evolved as a result of afternoon heating beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Meanwhile, an increase in convection is occurring from southern Georgia across north Florida and into the Panhandle, along a weak surface front. Limited/local severe risk may evolve across this region in the next 1 to 2 hours. Overall, any ongoing severe threat is forecast to diminish diurnally this evening. ..Goss.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 11 19:24:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night. ...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough across the northern Plains will amplify as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move generally from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this surface low south and then southwest to the central Plains. Ahead of this front, upper 50s to perhaps low 60s dewpoints are forecast which should be result in weak surface based instability Sunday afternoon. Guidance varies on the position of the surface low and destabilization ahead of the front. Long/straight hodographs within the cloud bearing layer should support some storm organization and the potential for some strong to locally severe storms. However, strong capping is forecast ahead of the front with thunderstorm potential mostly confined near the surface low. Destabilization should also be more limited farther north. Therefore, a narrow corridor of an uncapped warm sector with sufficient destabilization and shear for an isolated severe weather threat may exist, but is unclear if/where this may occur at this time. ...CO/KS... A few thunderstorms are possible along and north of a cold front across eastern Colorado and into western Kansas as a shortwave trough transits the central Rockies. Moisture/instability is expected to be limited which should keep any thunderstorm potential isolated. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible from the Big Horns to the Black Hills during the late afternoon to mid-evening Saturday. ...Southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming to the Black Hills... A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia will advance east through the day Saturday. Height falls across northern Wyoming and southeast Montana will lead to strengthening ascent by late afternoon. Strong heating, featuring temperatures in the low 70s, will support sufficient instability for scattered thunderstorm activity. The deeply-mixed thermodynamic profile will support the potential for some severe wind gusts from this activity. This threat should quickly wane after sunset as the boundary layer cools. ...Mid-MO Valley to the Upper Midwest... A synoptically strong and nocturnally enhanced low-level jet will strengthen Saturday night across the central Plains. This will result in strengthening isentropic ascent in addition to height falls ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. Despite favorable synoptic scale lift, most forecast soundings show limited moisture and a lack of elevated instability. Some guidance has higher quality moisture and develops isolated thunderstorms, but even if storms develop, instability will likely be too weak to support more than small hail. ..Bentley.. 04/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z A cold front moving through Montana today will support gusty surface winds from the west and northwest through the afternoon across portions of northeastern Montana. Short range model guidance suggests relative humidity dropping into the 20-25 percent range this afternoon across northeastern Montana. These factors amid very dry fuels resulted in a westward expansion of Elevated highlights from the northern High Plains. A dry boundary layer associated with modest post-frontal west winds crossing the Florida Peninsula along with receptive fuels will continue to support an Elevated fire weather threat today. ..Williams/Weinman.. 04/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid-level pattern will persist through today as the western ridge builds into the Plains and the eastern trough deepens in place. As the mid-level ridge builds into the Plains, a lee trough will develop across the northern High Plains. This lee trough will induce strong southerly flow across then northern Plains within a dry return flow scenario. The result will be afternoon relative humidity in the low twenties to mid teens and afternoon winds gusting to 25-30 mph. The limiting factor for upgrading to critical will be relatively high fuel moisture, with ERC percentiles less than 80% and more generally less than 60%. Across the Florida peninsula, a surface cold front will move across the region. In its wake, a dry post-frontal airmass will move in. The dry airmass should support efficient mixing of stronger flow in the 925-850 millibar layer resulting in several hours of gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening from parts of north Florida and far southeast Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia. ...North Florida to the Eastern Carolinas and Far Southeast Virginia... A mid-level trough will continue amplifying today over the southern Appalachians as one embedded speed maximum rotates northeastward over the Carolinas, and an upstream shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MS Valley into the Southeast. An associated weak surface low will develop northeastward across eastern NC and far southeast VA, while a trailing cold front moves southeastward into north FL. Surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s, in combination with daytime heating beneath cold mid-level temperatures, will support MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the cyclone track across the eastern Carolinas, and along the front in north FL. The weak instability and relatively straight hodographs aloft suggest some updraft organization will be possible, with an isolated threat for hail and strong to damaging winds this afternoon/evening. A few low-topped thunderstorms should also occur this afternoon over the southern Appalachians. However, buoyancy and deep-layer shear will be weaker compared to areas farther east/southeast, with a limited overall severe threat. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/11/2025 Read more