SPC Mar 31, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA... ...SUMMARY... An ongoing squall line spreading across the Ohio Valley may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before weakening later tonight across the Allegheny and Cumberland Plateaus. Intensifying thunderstorm development is still expected across the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening, which will probably pose increasing potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading east-southeastward through daybreak. ...01z Update... As a notable short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio Valley, into a broadly confluent regime between a significant short wave trough digging across Manitoba/Ontario and large-scale downstream ridging shifting east of the St. Lawrence Valley/Northeast, it appears that associated forcing for ascent may finally support substantive deepening of a surface cyclone across southern Ontario into Quebec overnight. In its wake, a trailing cold front will continue to advance through the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. In advance of the cold front, seasonably moist boundary-layer air continues to support a broad reservoir of moderate instability beneath a residual plume of elevated mixed-layer air across southeastern Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley. Across and northeast of the Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity, the ongoing pre-frontal squall line will gradually cut-off low-level Gulf moisture return. ...Lower Tennessee/Ohio Valleys into lower Great Lakes... The ongoing squall line near the lower Ohio River vicinity is embedded within strongly sheared, 40-50 kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. This will likely continue to pose a risk for damaging surface gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, before more stable storm inflow gradually weakens convection later this evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast... Model output continues to suggest that a substantive increase in convective development is likely later this evening into the overnight hours, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a low amplitude mid-level short wave digging southeast of the southern Rockies. Given the degree of potential instability, as mid-level inhibition erodes, a rapid intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible. This may initially pose a risk for severe hail, before at least modest deep-layer shear contributes to the evolution of one or two organizing clusters accompanied by increasing risk for strong gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2025 Read more
