No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 29 21:40:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0282 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NE INTO SOUTHERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 0282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northern NE into southern SD Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 291933Z - 292230Z SUMMARY...Occasional snow rates of locally greater than 1 inch per hour are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy precipitation is ongoing early this afternoon from western NE into western/central SD, with observations indicating a mix of snow, sleet, and rain/freezing rain ongoing across the region. This precipitation band is associated with a negatively tilted midlevel shortwave trough ejecting northeastward across central Great Plains. Frontogenesis near/above 700 mb will continue to support strong midlevel ascent that will extend through the dendritic growth zone, resulting the potential for at least localized heavy snow rates this afternoon. Marginal low-level temperatures will tend to delay the changeover to snow and limit snow-to-liquid ratios in some areas, but snow may increase near/above 1 inch per hour in areas that experience the heaviest precip rates. In addition, weak MUCAPE will support potential for occasional lightning and convective enhancement of rates along the eastern periphery of heavier precipitation, as the primary midlevel vorticity maximum moves northeastward. Some areas outside of the heaviest snow band may continue to experience occasional freezing rain and/or sleet through the afternoon. ..Dean.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42820171 43680095 44230015 44339917 43969889 43509892 42819954 42000045 41950095 41990113 42000161 42130179 42820171 Read more

MD 0283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...North-central/northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...far southwest Iowa...far Northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292051Z - 292245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may develop in the next 1-3 hours. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Tied to a lead shortwave trough in the central Plains, cumulus have been deepening along a dryline in central Kansas. Despite somewhat limited moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s F), surface heating and forcing from the trough may promote storm initiation within the next 1-3 hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-45 kts of effective shear orthogonal to the dryline would promote discrete storms capable of large hail and strong/damaging winds. Low-level hodograph curvature is sufficient for some low-level rotation and potentially a brief tornado, but a generally dry boundary layer will likely limit that threat. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38509735 39569767 40109759 40729641 40819596 40659558 40049532 39459533 38509735 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0284 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTHERN UPPER MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...Northeast WI into southern upper MI and northern lower MI Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 292109Z - 300115Z SUMMARY...An increase in freezing rain rates is possible into the evening. DISCUSSION...Some increase in precipitation has been noted this afternoon from northeast WI into northern lower MI, in advance of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving into western WI. Modest isentropic ascent will continue to support light to moderate precipitation in an west-east band across the region into the evening, with some tendency for northward expansion with time. The influence of a cold surface ridge over parts of Ontario/Quebec will maintain cold surface temperatures into the evening, while modest warm advection continues aloft. This should generally maintain a favorable thermodynamic profile for freezing rain, though some mixing with sleet will be possible. Ice accretion rates could occasionally exceed 0.03 inches per hour, as noted in recent METAR observations from Alpena (KAPN). Another wave of moderate to locally heavy precipitation could approach western and northern parts of the MCD area late tonight. ..Dean.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45918798 45998565 45578315 44898275 44478289 44398360 44898630 44608806 44618980 44878967 45688920 45918798 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z The first few days within the extended period will be busy fire weather wise across portions of the southern High Plains, as a series of mid-level troughs will overspread the region and support multiple rounds of surface troughing/cyclone development. As this occurs, dry downslope flow, in tandem with isallobaric westerly surface flow, and downward momentum transport within a mixed boundary layer, will all support dry/windy conditions Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). These dry/windy conditions are expected to exceed Critical thresholds on Tuesday and Wednesday as an 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains, where 70% Critical probabilities have been introduced. Guidance consensus suggests that Day 4/Tuesday will be the worst day in the series, as the core of the aforementioned low-level jet will overspread the New Mexico/Texas border by afternoon peak heating, and the surface low strengthens to 986 mb over southwestern Kansas. Sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 30 mph amid 10-20 percent RH across much of eastern New Mexico into western Texas behind a dryline. Given very dry fuels and no forecast rainfall to dampen these fuels, widespread high-end Critical conditions are likely, with at least sporadic Extremely Critical conditions possible. Thereafter, dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week. At least occasionally breezy conditions are likely, though low chances for widespread Critical conditions precludes Critical probabilities at this time. Still, Elevated highlights may be needed for portions of New Mexico into western Texas by the Days 1-2 time frame. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...20z Update... The Marginal Risk across portions of southeast Texas was to remove, as thunderstorm activity has moved eastward. A Marginal Risk was introduced across the Florida Keys. Otherwise, no changes were made to the Slight Risk areas across the southern/central Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... As thunderstorm activity progresses eastward through time this evening, a corridor of greater damaging wind risk may develop. CAM solutions continue to indicate upscale growth across portions of northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas and western Missouri. Should this line be able to organize and establish a strong cold pool, the potential exists for a swath of damaging wind and perhaps some significant winds given the steep mid-level lapse. Limiting factors include the displacement of the stronger low-level jet winds to the south and lagging of stronger mid-level flow across the Red River into central Oklahoma. In addition, CAM guidance is split on a more organized bowing line or a somewhat broken line of mixed mode thunderstorms. Even so, a couple of gusts 70-80 mph could not be ruled out. ...Florida Keys... Recent radar imagery has shown a couple of supercells with strengthening rotation moving northwestward near the lower Florida Keys. The environment in this region is characterized by rich moisture and storm relative helicity around 100-150 m2/s2. This will support a risk for a tornado with inclusion of a Marginal Risk with this update. ..Thornton/Smith.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat slowly diminishing late. Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley. It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50 kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance (e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter). ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Although deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization and transient rotation with the stronger storms. Cells moving northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The primary change made to this outlook was to expand Critical probabilities into central and eastern New Mexico. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds, overlapping with 10-15 percent RH and dry fuels, necessitating this northward Critical expansion. Dry, locally breezy conditions may also develop by afternoon peak heating across portions of the Mid Atlantic, though these conditions appear too brief to warrant Elevated highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will redevelop across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon, while a lee cyclone/trough persists over the southern High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico into the Texas Trans-Pecos... During the afternoon, deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong midlevel jet streak. This, coupled with a modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone/trough, will favor 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to intensify as it moves northeastward from the Lower Great Lakes into southeast Canada through the day Monday morning in tandem with a leading shortwave trough. A trailing cold front is expected to push east/southeast into the upper OH River Valley and lower MS Valley/Southeast early Monday morning as a second low-amplitude wave traverses the eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along this front as it continues to push into New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the southeast states through the late afternoon and evening hours. ...Central Gulf States... Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing by 12z Monday as a squall line forced along the cold front continues to push southeast across MS and AL. A combination of rich low-level moisture ahead of the line, diurnal heating, strong low to mid-level flow, and broad scale ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should help maintain convective intensity into the afternoon hours. A corridor of damaging/severe winds, and potentially embedded tornadoes, appears probable from central MS into AL and western GA. ...Central Appalachians... Thunderstorm development along the front is expected by early to mid-afternoon from the upper OH Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. Returning moisture through the Carolinas northward into eastern PA/western NY, combined with mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, should support sufficient buoyancy for deep convection, though buoyancy values should diminish with northward extent across the central Appalachians. Moderate flow within the lowest few kilometers should support a damaging wind threat as convection matures along the front across the upper OH Valley. Further south, stronger ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should promote better storm organization, including the potential for semi-discrete cells and/or organized linear segments. Medium-range guidance suggests low-level winds will strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak secondary low deepens through late afternoon in the lee of the Appalachians, which may support an enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph and a locally higher tornado threat across the Carolinas into VA. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 29 17:46:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA CENTERED OVER THE OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A widespread/substantial severe-weather episode is forecast across an area centered on the Ohio/Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Missouri/Tennessee River Valleys. Very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level shortwave trough across the Southwest that is the leading impulse within a longwave trough building across the eastern Pacific/western CONUS. This wave is expected to overspread the southern/central Plains today before migrating into the Great Lakes region through the day tomorrow. A secondary disturbance is expected to move into the southern Plains late tomorrow evening into early Monday. At the surface, the surface low analyzed across KS is forecast to intensify as it moves northeast along a frontal zone into the Great Lakes in tandem with the leading upper disturbance. The intensification of the low will result in a cold frontal surge across the Midwest/OH Valley tomorrow afternoon and across the Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region tomorrow evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated along and ahead of the frontal zone with the potential for widespread large hail/severe winds and several tornadoes. ...Central TX... Latest guidance suggests convection may be ongoing across central TX along/ahead of a migratory dryline early Sunday morning. The southern extent of a pronounced EML casts doubt on storm coverage/longevity. However, buoyancy and deep-layer wind shear should be supportive of supercells with an attendant severe hail/wind threat if mature updrafts can develop along the boundary as the primary upper-level trough axis passes over the region. ...IL, IN, and OH... Consensus among recent forecast guidance is that kinematic fields will steadily strengthen across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley regions through the day as the surface low intensifies. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the primary cold front should allow for dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s to spread into the region by mid-afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front appears likely as early as 18-20z across IL, and while a few initially discrete cells are possible, strong forcing along the front should promote upscale growth into an organized line by late afternoon. Strong low-level flow (nearly 50 knots 0-1 km BWD) may promote bowing segments and embedded mesovorticies within the line - especially across northern IN/northwest OH. 30% wind probabilities have been expanded northward to account for this potential. While this is the most probable scenario based on morning guidance, it could be complicated by any ongoing showers/thunderstorms and/or remnant outflow boundaries associated with nocturnal convection over MO late Saturday/early Sunday morning. This could limit diurnal heating/destabilization or may provide pre-frontal foci for convective initiation and promote more discrete storm modes. ...Mid-MS Valley to Texarkana region... Scattered, initially discrete supercells are expected to develop from the confluence of the OH/MS rivers southwestward into the Texarkana region Sunday afternoon along the cold front and dryline. Strong flow associated with the intensifying cyclone will promote elongated hodographs featuring nearly uni-directional wind profiles and effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots. This will promote splitting supercells with the potential for large to very large (2+ inch) hail. A more appreciable supercellular tornado threat may emerge through early evening across the lower OH Valley/mid-MS Valley where stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km is anticipated amid weak pre-frontal isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb. While the tornado threat may be maximized through this corridor, low confidence in storm mode (due to the potential for splitting cells/destructive interactions) limits confidence in this potential to warrant higher probabilities at this time. However, upscale growth is anticipated through mid/late evening as the secondary upper disturbance migrates into the Texarkana region. Consolidation of multiple clusters into one or more organized linear segments is expected as storms push east towards the MS Valley with a gradual increase in the potential for damaging/severe winds. Additionally, low-level shear will remain favorable for embedded mesovorticies as the line pushes into western TN/northern MS/northwest AL through the overnight hours. ...Florida... A weak mid-level impulse (currently over the northern Gulf) is expected to meander across northern FL by peak heating. Somewhat strong mid-level winds (25-30 knots) associated with this feature may provide sufficient organization to thunderstorms developing across eastern central/northern FL to pose an isolated hail/wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS... Morning visible satellite shows modest cloud cover overspreading portions of the southern High Plains (mainly New Mexico), which may inhibit robust boundary-layer mixing to a degree. Nonetheless, adequate mixing should still take place, in tandem with increasing surface westerly isallobaric flow due to the developing Plains cyclone, to promote widespread Elevated to potentially Critical fire weather conditions. Only slight adjustments have been made to the Critical highlights in the southern High Plains to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Also, surface observations depict the cold front already impinging on the Kansas/Oklahoma border, promoting relatively cooler/moist conditions to the area. As such, Elevated highlights have been trimmed in this area. Boundary-layer heating continues across portions of the Mid Atlantic, despite the presence of cloud cover, with surface observations showing RH (currently 40-45 percent) continuing to drop. Therefore, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel west-southwesterly jet streak will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day. At the same time, a lee cyclone will persist over the central Plains, while a related dryline sharpens over the southern Plains. ...Southern/Eastern New Mexico into Western Texas... West of the dryline, strengthening downslope flow will contribute to deep boundary-layer mixing, with RH falling into the single digits to lower/middle teens. A modest pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, and deep mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). This combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions will yield critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive surface high over the western Atlantic, a modest pressure gradient and breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds will develop across the Mid-Atlantic. Here, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s/lower 80s F while RH falls to around 30 percent during the afternoon. Given dry/receptive fuels and the expectation for minimal precipitation across the area tonight, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery shows a lead disturbance moving northeastward across the central Great Plains towards the Upper Midwest, while an upstream disturbance moves from eastern AZ into the southern Great Plains tonight. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Surface analysis shows lower 60s dewpoints streaming northward on southerly low-level flow this morning from north TX to the KS/OK border. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong buoyancy will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Forecast soundings favor supercell development with activity that develops south of the front across west-central OK. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) may accompany these storms early in their convective life cycle. Despite increasing CINH during the evening, lower 60s dewpoints in place with 500-mb temperatures around -15 deg C may aid the development of a tornado risk from central into northeast OK as storms mature and eventually grow upscale. Severe gusts will probably become more prevalent with time as this cluster moves east-northeast into parts of northeast OK and eventually into MO later tonight, perhaps with the wind threat slowly diminishing late. Farther south, a conditional severe threat exists south of the Red River from north TX southwestward into parts of the Concho Valley. It appears the airmass will remain capped during the day in the vicinity of the dryline, with storm development likely delayed until late evening into the overnight per recent model guidance. Very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear magnitudes (50 kt effective shear), and 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE will support a severe risk with any sustained storms. Models vary between very isolated coverage and scattered storm coverage, especially over parts of central into north TX. Given consistency in some model guidance (e.g., HRRR model run to run, GFS, ECMWF) showing some convective signal, have opted to increase hail probabilities to level-2 Slight Risk overnight. Large to very large hail is possible with the stronger storms (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter). ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward this afternoon across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Although deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization and transient rotation with the stronger storms. Cells moving northeastward and inland over the central Gulf Coast may pose a threat for a brief tornado, as well as a localized risk for damaging gusts. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur across parts of the central/southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley, mainly this evening through the overnight hours. This may include an organized thunderstorm cluster across parts of northern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Two mid-level shortwave troughs will impact the central/southern Plains today, with the leading low-amplitude perturbation expected to move quickly northeastward from the central High Plains to the upper MS Valley by this evening. The trailing feature will advance from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern High Plains through the afternoon/evening, eventually reaching the Ozarks/mid MO Valley by the end of the period. The primary surface low over western KS this morning is forecast to develop east-northeastward towards southern IA/northern MO by tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep southward across parts of the central/southern Plains through the period, while a dryline mixes eastward over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Low-level moisture is expected to continue streaming northward over the central/southern Plains ahead of the cold front and dryline. A substantial cap will likely inhibit robust convective development until late this afternoon or early evening, with the cold front/dryline intersection over western OK a potential location for convective initiation by 23-03Z as large-scale ascent with the trailing shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. Moderate to strong MUCAPE will likely be present across western/northern OK and southern KS, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints. Sufficiently strong deep-layer shear is also anticipated, which should support supercells initially, with an associated threat for large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). A brief window may also exist in the early to mid evening for a tornado or two with any sustained, surface-based supercell, as 0-1 km SRH increases in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Otherwise, a fairly quick transition to a more linear/cluster mode and severe/damaging wind threat is expected along or just ahead of the front late this evening and overnight, as robust convection spreads northeastward across the Ozarks and mid MS Valley before eventually weakening by early Sunday morning. The severe threat across southern OK into north/central TX ahead of the front/dryline appears more conditional, as the better forcing aloft will tend to remain farther north. Even so, given an otherwise favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment, large hail and damaging winds will likely occur if any thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained this evening/overnight. The chance of sustained development still appears fairly low given latest guidance trends, which supports maintaining the Marginal Risk for the conditional severe threat with this update. ...Louisiana/Mississippi... A remnant MCV will continue to move northeastward today across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Modestly enhanced low-level southerly flow (reference 12Z LCH sounding) should aid in the northward transport of additional rich low-level moisture into parts of LA and southern MS through the day. While deep-layer shear is expected to remain fairly weak, sufficient low-level shear should be present to support some updraft organization/rotation. Cells moving northeastward and inland over southern LA may pose a threat for a brief tornado or two as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes with filtered daytime heating. Some guidance also suggests that one or more loosely organized clusters may also have a threat for isolated damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. Poor lapse rates aloft, weak instability, and modest deep-layer shear should all act to keep the overall severe threat isolated/marginal. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/29/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus -- in general -- depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear. One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required. Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours. From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. -- each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in fairly good agreement through much of the medium-range period, with respect to large-scale pattern evolution/placement of the main synoptic-scale features. One primary difference between the GFS and ECMWF at this time is that the EC is more highly amplified with the upper pattern through the period, and thus -- in general -- depicting stronger surface features and greater flow aloft/wind shear. One result of the higher amplitude of the ECMWF manifests Day 4/Tuesday April 1. As the eastern U.S. trough moves off the Atlantic Coast, and the cold front stalls over the northern Gulf of America early, northward return of this boundary as a warm front is forecast over the southern and eventually the central Plains. Central High Plains cyclogenesis is expected along this front as it shifts northward. However, given the more amplified nature of western troughing within the ECMWF, a much stronger surface cyclone is progged by the EC as compared to the GFS (984 mb vs. 991 mb respectively). The result is much stronger low-level theta-e advection across the central/southern Plains depicted by the EC, driving a much more rapid northward advance of the warm front. Both models suggest after-dark convective development, but where the GFS depicts weaker, elevated CAPE across Kansas, the EC's more robust, potentially near surface-based CAPE suggests greater, more widespread severe potential than the GFS. At this time, a small 15% area will be introduced, centered over the mid Missouri Valley area, mainly for the potential for hail with stronger storms. Later refinements of the risk area will likely be required. Day 5/Wednesday, a widespread, potentially substantial severe event remains apparent, and with greater agreement within the models with respect to the upper trough advance and associated positioning of the surface low/cold front, greater confidence with respect to the degree of risk exists. While a very similar 15% risk area will be depicted as in yesterday's outlook, a 30% area is being introduced from Arkansas northeastward to the mid Ohio Valley. It appears that the environment will become conducive for supercells, with very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes all possible during the afternoon and evening hours. From Day 6 onward, the cold front will continue its eastward advance across the Ohio Valley and into/across the Northeast/New England. However, much slower southward progression of the cold front is expected, with an eventual drift northward as a warm front that then lingers/oscillates across the Ohio Valley/Mid South/central and southern Plains through the end of the period. This will occur as a slow-moving trough moves into the West, and eventually evolves into a cut-off low. While weak disturbances eject eastward through southwesterly flow aloft across the central U.S. -- each of which may bring rounds of convection/severe potential in the day 6-8 time frame, narrowing down specific/greater areas of potential is difficult at this time. Read more

MD 0281 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY INTO VT AND NH
Mesoscale Discussion 0281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern NY into VT and NH Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 290554Z - 291200Z SUMMARY...Snow and freezing rain will increase over the next few hours hours across parts of northern New York into central/southern Vermont and New Hampshire. Mixed wintry precipitation is expected to persist into the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...Light to moderate snow is occurring over far northern NY into northern VT/NH tonight. Precipitation is expected to shift south and east over the next few hours within a band of strong 850-700 mb frontogenesis, and as a surface front sags southward, allowing a shallow layer of sub-freezing near-surface temperatures to filter across the MCD area. Warm, moist advection atop the surface front within this zone of stronger ascent will support continued development of snow and freezing rain into the morning hours. Freezing rain rates may approach 0.02 inches per hour, though snowfall rates are generally expected to remain less than an inch per hour. ..Leitman.. 03/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF... LAT...LON 44007118 43447126 43217143 42987154 42887198 42927240 43097308 43257391 43567468 44497564 44737549 44817428 44547231 44247154 44007118 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestwad to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Portions of New York and Pennsylvania south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along/ahead of a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period/Monday morning. Severe weather is likely to accompany some of the early-period convection. As the front advances across the higher terrain through the afternoon, some destabilization is expected -- modest across the Northeast, but more substantial with southward extent, from roughly Virginia southward. This will support an increase in storm coverage/intensity through the afternoon hours. Across northern portions of the outlook, the primary risk in the very modest CAPE environment will be locally damaging wind gusts. Farther south, an all-hazards risk is anticipated, including hail and potentially a few tornadoes. As is the case for Sunday, farther west, the NAM remains more bullish with respect to lapse rates/CAPE, and would support potentially greater than SLGT risk potential from roughly the Carolinas southwestward to Georgia and southern Alabama. However, uncertainty regarding pre-frontal clouds/convection across the Southeast early precludes inclusion of higher probabilities at this time. By evening, storms moving into southern New England should weaken, along with diminishing severe potential in part due to a cooler marine boundary layer. However, risk will likely continue through the evening farther south, until storms clear the middle and southern Atlantic coasts overnight. ..Goss.. 03/29/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestwad to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Portions of New York and Pennsylvania south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along/ahead of a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period/Monday morning. Severe weather is likely to accompany some of the early-period convection. As the front advances across the higher terrain through the afternoon, some destabilization is expected -- modest across the Northeast, but more substantial with southward extent, from roughly Virginia southward. This will support an increase in storm coverage/intensity through the afternoon hours. Across northern portions of the outlook, the primary risk in the very modest CAPE environment will be locally damaging wind gusts. Farther south, an all-hazards risk is anticipated, including hail and potentially a few tornadoes. As is the case for Sunday, farther west, the NAM remains more bullish with respect to lapse rates/CAPE, and would support potentially greater than SLGT risk potential from roughly the Carolinas southwestward to Georgia and southern Alabama. However, uncertainty regarding pre-frontal clouds/convection across the Southeast early precludes inclusion of higher probabilities at this time. By evening, storms moving into southern New England should weaken, along with diminishing severe potential in part due to a cooler marine boundary layer. However, risk will likely continue through the evening farther south, until storms clear the middle and southern Atlantic coasts overnight. ..Goss.. 03/29/2025 Read more