WW 71 TORNADO IL IN MI LM 301815Z - 310000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 71 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Illinois Northern Indiana Extreme southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A developing squall line in central Illinois will spread quickly northeastward into Indiana through the afternoon, with the potential for swaths of 60-70 mph thunderstorm gusts and a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations. Additional storms will also form across northeast Illinois with the potential to produce damaging winds, isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) and a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of South Bend IN to 5 miles south of Lafayette IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 70... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE BEH TO 20 N BEH TO 35 WSW MKG. ..THORNTON..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC005-015-025-037-045-057-065-067-075-077-081-117-121-139-159- 302240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGAN BARRY CALHOUN CLINTON EATON GRATIOT INGHAM IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT MONTCALM MUSKEGON OTTAWA VAN BUREN LMZ845-846-847-872-874-302240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI Read more

WW 73 SEVERE TSTM MI LM 302015Z - 310100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 73 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-developed squall line with bowing segments will move quickly northeastward from Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan through the afternoon/evening. Swaths of damaging winds (60-75 mph) are likely with this squall line, along with the potential for isolated large hail and a tornado or two with embedded circulations. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Grand Rapids MI to 10 miles southwest of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 70...WW 71...WW 72... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23050. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Broad mid-level troughing will prevail across the central CONUS through much of week. A pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the south-central U.S. Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), resulting in surface cyclone development over the Plains. On Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, downslope and isallobaric westerly surface flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across the southern High Plains, with rapid wildfire-spread potential likely. Through the remainder of the week, dry and occasionally breezy conditions will exist across the southern High Plains as surface lee troughing persists, before a cold front surges across the southern CONUS by the weekend. ...Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday) - Southern High Plains... An 80 kt mid-level jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies, supporting the development of a 986 mb surface cyclone over Kansas, with a strong westerly surface wind field overspreading the southern High Plains. Dangerous wildfire-spread conditions will be most prevalent on Tuesday, where broad Critical probabilities are in place. High-end Critical meteorological surface conditions (i.e. 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH) will become common west of a dryline associated with the surface low. Locally Extremely Critical conditions are possible. On Wednesday, Critically dry and windy conditions will persist across New Mexico into far western Texas, where 70% Critical highlights remain in place. Fuels are receptive to wildfire spread across portions of New Mexico into western Texas. The most dangerous wildfire-spread potential will exist with fuel beds that are experiencing appreciable fuel loading. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0301 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 70...71... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0301 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Illinois into central/northern Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan Concerning...Tornado Watch 70...71... Valid 301905Z - 302100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 70, 71 continues. SUMMARY...There is an increasing risk for severe wind gusts in central/northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan. DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms continues to move northeast in parts of eastern Illinois. Several measured and estimated severe gusts occurred in the Champaign, IL vicinity recently. KILX radar shows strong outbound winds within this line. With continued surface heating of mostly clear/partly cloudy skies in Indiana and forcing from the shortwave trough, the potential for severe wind gusts should continue through the afternoon. Low-level shear is not overly strong per downstream VAD data, but QLCS tornadoes remain possible. The greatest potential for a tornado (and large hail) would likely exist on the southern flank of the line where storms may remain more discrete. ..Wendt.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39098853 39998830 40708824 41268793 41628702 42008624 42138594 42098569 41668548 40968535 40408537 40138538 39098853 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0303 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...The northern Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301909Z - 302115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for brief tornadoes may continue through the late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, training convection has been continually developing along the northern Gulf Coast along a outflow-reinforced marine boundary. Although a consolidated outflow boundary is slowly developing per regional radar imagery, steady influx of high low-level theta-e air off the Gulf should promote further thunderstorm development through the diurnal heating maximum. Weakly veering winds through the lowest 2 km (best sampled by the KMOB VWP) is supporting sufficient low-level helicity for brief mesocyclone development with an attendant tornado risk. This potential has already been realized at least once based on a recent TDS evident across far southeast MS. Until the sea breeze weakens early this evening, strong updrafts with an attendant brief tornado threat may continue to develop on the southern periphery of the marine/outflow boundary. Given the localized nature of the threat watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30868660 30628662 30458675 30318702 30248749 30198797 30168862 30228920 30048969 30159010 30409025 30709007 30948958 31098876 31208772 31188706 31088668 30868660 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0304 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 70... FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Far east-central Missouri...parts of southern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 70... Valid 301927Z - 302100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 70 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells moving into southern Illinois will pose a threat for tornadoes (possibly strong) and large to very-large hail. DISCUSSION...Storms in and moving into southern Illinois have so far remained discrete. Regional VAD data suggest that this region remains favorable for low-level rotation in supercells. As long as storms remain discrete, which is not certain given the cold front moving southeastward, there will be a threat for a tornado (possibly strong) and large to very-large hail. ..Wendt.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 37799093 37989090 38159077 38539030 38858953 39098825 39058738 38738717 38448731 38138776 37938884 37719010 37659072 37669085 37799093 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0305 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan...Northwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301949Z - 302145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...An organized line of storms with a history of 60-85 mph wind gusts will continue into western Ohio and southern Lower Michigan. Risk for damaging winds will continue with more isolated/uncertain threats for large hail and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...An organized line of fast-moving storms continues northeastward through central/northern Indiana. Modest destabilization continues ahead of this line into portions of western Ohio and southern Lower Michigan. Given the organization of this line, potential for severe/damaging gusts will remain even as buoyancy tends to wane north and east. This line of storms has a history of producing wind gusts of 60-85 mph. Damaging winds will likely remain the primary risk. Isolated large hail could occur, but storm mode will mitigate that risk. Likewise, storm mode is also not optimal for tornadoes. Regional VAD winds and RAP forecast soundings do suggest some QLCS tornado risk will exist, but this risk diminishes with eastward extent. One or more watches will need to be considered for portions of western Ohio and southern Lower Michigan by 21Z. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 43028639 43558486 43568327 42948247 41978229 41118286 40718387 40568459 40708483 40918493 43028639 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas...southern Missouri...western Tennessee...western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301841Z - 302045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for storms in portions of the Mid-South, including the potential for discrete supercells. Tornadoes (some strong), very large hail, and severe gusts are all possible. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...With the cold front beginning to move southeastward in Missouri, storm development along it can be expected as it encounters greater low-level moisture. Some of the activity in southeastern Missouri may be discrete at least for some period of time. Of greater concern will be storms that develop in western/central Arkansas. There, the surge of the cold front through Oklahoma has allowed a slightly more favorable boundary/shear vector orientation. Recent short-term model guidance has continued to show a signal for storm development in these areas. These storms would have greater potential to be discrete and remain so for a longer duration. With the stronger low-level flow lifting north, the tornado threat may initially be lower. However, discrete storms that persist into the evening will have increasing tornado potential (including strong tornadoes) as the low-level jet increases in the Mid-South. The 18Z observed Little Rock, AR sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates, 45 kts of effective shear, and a remaining capping inversion. Aside from the tornado threat, very large hail and severe gusts would be possible. Though cumulus continues to steadily deepen in the region, it may take another hour or two for storms to initiate. Subtle mid-level ascent in Oklahoma will pivot into the region and should assist in this process. A tornado watch is likely later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 34959359 34959389 35309378 36449303 36759281 37059233 37119212 37298974 37148906 36998863 36478854 35908887 35219177 35079275 34959359 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the D1 Outlook to remove portion of the Marginal across north-central Texas into Missouri behind the dry line. Further development along the dry line into Arkansas is expected through the afternoon/evening. Daytime heating has allowed an axis of MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg to develop from far southern Texas into Louisiana. This will continue to nose northward into portions of Arkansas through time, with weakening of MLCIN. Supercell development is expected with potential for very large hail with any stronger discrete supercells. Further north, minor adjustments were made to the Marginal and Slight in the Midwest behind ongoing convection and cold front.A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of Indiana and central/northern Illinois. This line has produced measured severe gusts 60-70 mph and will likely pose a continued damaging wind threat across central/northern Indiana/southern Michigan through the afternoon/evening. A favored corridor of stronger wind is possible across central/northern Indiana, as has been indicated in recent WoFS runs. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO IA/MO/IL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible by late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... The Slight Risk area has been expanded southward across parts of the central and southern Plains, for a conditional but potentially significant severe-weather threat that could develop into Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. ...Central and southern Plains into parts of the Midwest... A potent mid/upper-level trough will begin to influence the Great Plains and Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A 100 kt 500-mb jet will emerge into the central Plains by early Wednesday morning, as a intense surface cyclone moves east across the central High Plains during the day, then northeastward Tuesday night. Richer low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will advance quickly northward during the day/evening in conjunction with a 50+ kt low-level jet. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy will be in place along/east of the dryline by early evening, though lingering CINH results in uncertainty regarding coverage of dryline development. At least isolated supercell development appears possible by early evening, across the central and perhaps southern Plains portion of the dryline, with very favorable deep-layer flow/shear supporting a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. Any supercells that persist through the evening could become increasingly tornadic, as boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear continue to increase. Regardless of dryline development through the evening, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. Additional elevated storms may develop into parts of the Midwest overnight, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0072 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 70 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 70 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-051-055- 059-065-077-079-081-101-115-121-135-139-145-147-157-159-165-173- 183-185-189-191-193-199-301940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MACON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PERRY PIATT RANDOLPH RICHLAND SALINE SHELBY VERMILION WABASH WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC005-011-013-015-021-023-027-035-045-051-055-057-059-063-065- 067-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-125-129-133-135- 139-145-147-153-157-159-163-165-167-171-173-301940- Read more

WW 0071 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 71 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 71 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-105-197-301940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LIVINGSTON WILL INC001-003-007-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-073-075-085-087-089- 091-099-103-111-113-127-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183- 301940- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BENTON BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON JASPER JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LAKE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NEWTON NOBLE PORTER PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... The primary synoptic features on Monday will be influenced by extensive antecedent and ongoing convection, but in general, one significant mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the lower Great Lakes toward the Canadian Maritimes, while a lower-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the Mid-South/Southeast toward the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. A deep surface low will move across Quebec through the day, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward from the Northeast/New England into parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia... While uncertainty remains regarding antecedent convective evolution on D1/Sunday, latest guidance generally suggests that an organized storm cluster will ongoing Monday morning across parts of LA/MS/AL, potentially aided by the trailing shortwave trough moving out of the southern Plains. Favorable low-level moisture, moderate downstream buoyancy, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will help to maintain potential for an organized cluster to move eastward into parts of GA/SC through the day, accompanied by a threat for scattered to widespread damaging winds. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient to support some tornado threat as well, both with QLCS circulations and also with any embedded supercells. In addition to a tornado threat, any sustained supercells would also pose a threat of isolated hail. The anticipated storm cluster will tend to outpace the primary cold front, with some potential for at least isolated development in the wake of early-day convection. Uncertainty remains high regarding the severe potential with any second round of convection in this region. Farther north into parts of NC/VA, relatively strong heating of a moist environment will result in moderate buoyancy by early afternoon, though midlevel lapse rates will likely remain weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread eastward, with potential for a few organized cells/clusters capable of damaging wind. There will be some potential for an increase in low-level flow/shear and moisture later in the afternoon, which could increase the tornado threat, depending on the timing of storm initiation and maturation. ...Parts of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast... While instability will generally weaken with northward extent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the front as far north as parts of NY and southern New England. Low/midlevel flow will remain somewhat enhanced along the southern periphery of the cyclone across Quebec, and some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado may accompany the strongest storms through the day and into the early evening, before the front moves offshore. ..Dean.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a lead mid-level shortwave trough moving quickly northeastward across MO, while an upstream disturbance over the TX Panhandle/western OK rounds the base of a larger-scale trough over the central U.S. Surface analysis places a cyclone near the IA/IL/WI border with a trailing cold front south-southwestward through the lower MO Valley and into eastern OK and north TX. This front will push east through the OH Valley and into the lower MS Valley by early Monday morning and focus thunderstorm development. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Visible-satellite imagery shows cloud breaks to the immediate east of the lead mid-level disturbance as a moist/warm conveyor (40-kt southwesterly LLJ) maintains a fetch of seasonably rich moisture into the region. Additional thinning cloud cover and heating through the early to mid afternoon will lead to thunderstorms developing and intensifying. A belt of 50-80 kt 500-mb flow will overspread the destabilizing airmass and yield ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. The stronger early storms will favor supercell and banded linear modes, with the supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. Meridional upper-level flow from I-70 northward will favor a quicker transition to linear structures compared to farther south/southwest, where hodographs will promote a longer window of opportunity for cellular (discrete and clusters) storm modes. The tornado risk will be greatest with quasi-discrete supercells (potentially a few strong tornadoes) near and south of the OH River, but some tornado threat will probably develop with a squall line as it matures through the afternoon/evening. As storm coverage increases, multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... Strong destabilization is anticipated across the Ark-La-Tex east and northeastward into the Mid South. Rich low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s to around 70 deg F dewpoints) will stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. Model guidance continues to indicate rapid and intense thunderstorm development during the afternoon from parts of north/east TX northeastward into AR. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A favorable setup exists for large to very large hail with the stronger supercells. It appears the greatest risk for several tornadoes will focus over parts of the Mid-South from eastern AR into western TN on the southern periphery of an intensification of 850-mb flow towards evening. Forecast soundings show moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of 66-68 deg F dewpoints, and co-located with strong southwesterly flow veering to westerly by early evening. It is during the 22-04 UTC period in which forecast hodographs enlarge in the low levels and become more favorable for discrete supercells. The strong tornado risk may maximize within this corridor from parts of eastern AR eastward into western and perhaps Middle TN during the evening. Additional severe storms are probable farther south as activity from the Ark-La-Tex moves east into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states during the late afternoon into tonight. In addition to large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado risk will likely accompany the stronger storms with a gradual lessening in overall coverage and intensity during the late night. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL this afternoon. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for strong to severe multicells. The stronger diurnally driven storms may be capable of severe hail and damaging winds. ..Smith/Moore.. 03/30/2025 Read more