MD 0295 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS/BRAZOS VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Portions of Central Texas/Brazos Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301447Z - 301645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe storms may occur and occasionally produce large hail this morning. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection within central Texas has occasionally pulsed in intensity over the last hour or so. This activity, likely elevated, is driven by weak low-level warm advection. Given the very steep mid-level lapse rates (observed in this mornings regional sounding data) and modest influence from a shortwave trough to the north, storms that can persist may produce large hail. However, low-level warm advection is expected to weaken over the next few hours and the coverage of storms is not expected to be more than isolated. Additional stronger storms appear more probable later in the afternoon. A watch is not currently anticipated for this early day activity. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30559812 30839848 31139856 31399840 31599784 31629658 31329568 30639558 30299613 30559812 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...East-central/southeast Missouri...southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301604Z - 301800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A watch will likely be needed, particularly for areas near and east of the Mississippi River. All severe hazards are possible with a mix of linear segments and supercells. DISCUSSION...A prominent shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery in central Missouri. Tied to this feature, weak convection has been slowly deepening in parts of eastern Missouri as it moves northeastward. Downstream of this, temperatures in southern/central Illinois have risen into the low 70s F given the more broken cloud cover. The general consensus of short-term CAM guidance is that convection will strengthen in the vicinity of the Mississippi River. This seems reasonable given current environmental trends. That being said, the need for a watch in the short term is not entirely certain. Potential for a watch in the next couple of hours, particularly for portions of southern Illinois, are higher than points to the west. Storm mode is expected to be a mix of linear segments, especially with northward extent, and some supercells (more likely towards the Ohio Valley). Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large to very-large hail with initial or sustained supercells. Fast moving storms and enhanced low-level flow will promote swaths of wind damage. The tornado threat is somewhat less clear, but will be maximized with any discrete storms. Line-embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes are also possible given sufficient low-level hodograph curvature. A strong tornado or two could occur. A watch will likely be needed by early afternoon. Exact timing is not clear and some locations west of the River may not destabilize enough in the short term for an organized severe threat. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37079078 37259107 37579124 38099134 38649120 39069083 39749035 40118977 40188936 40118870 39698827 38438813 37738856 37128987 37079078 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Clear skies across the southern High Plains is supporting continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, which will foster the development of critically dry and windy surface conditions through afternoon. Therefore, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... Clear skies across the southern High Plains is supporting continued boundary-layer heating/mixing, which will foster the development of critically dry and windy surface conditions through afternoon. Therefore, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... A broad area of severe potential remains apparent today and tonight, with all severe hazards likely. The main mid-level shortwave trough of interest will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks/mid MO Valley to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as larger-scale upper troughing gradually becomes more established over the MS Valley through the period. At the surface, the primary surface low over eastern IA this morning is expected to develop northeastward towards northern Lower MI by this evening, and eventually into southern Ontario/Quebec late tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest/OH Valley and mid/lower MS Valley through the period, while a warm front lifts northward in tandem with the surface low over portions of the Great Lakes. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon across parts of north-central to south-central TX. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe, although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z, and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening. A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... A band of mostly elevated convection developed earlier this morning over portions of north-central/east TX, likely in association with large-scale ascent preceding a westerly mid/upper-level jet nosing into central TX. While the overall environment remains quite favorable for organized severe convection, messy convective modes have tended to keep the severe hail threat isolated so far. Still, some risk for hail will continue through the morning. Strong destabilization is anticipated today ahead of this convection and a separate area of elevated thunderstorms over southern MO. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will continue to stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. This rich low-level moisture, combined with very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, are expected to foster around 2000-3000 MLCAPE by early to mid afternoon. Rapid and intense thunderstorm initiation will likely occur by 18-21Z from parts of north-central/east TX to the Mid-South/mid MS Valley. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A very favorable setup remains apparent for large to very large hail, as strong instability and deep-layer shear combine with steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels. Some of this very large hail could reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With the primary shortwave trough ejecting to the northeast, low-level winds are forecast to remain fairly subdued through the afternoon and early evening, before gradually strengthening again tonight through early Monday morning. A risk for several tornadoes should be focused over parts of the Mid-South, a few of which could be strong given a favorable supercell mode. Similar to farther north in the OH Valley, a transition to more linear/cluster mode is expected this evening and overnight as the cold front continues advancing southeastward. A risk for line-embedded tornadoes should continue, and an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is likely through the end of the period. Based on latest guidance trends, and to overlap with the Day 2 Convective Outlook, adjustments have been made to the southern/eastern extent of the risk areas across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL today. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. Any convection that develops in tandem with daytime heating this afternoon and early evening could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the FL Peninsula based on latest guidance trends. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight across a broad portion of the Southeast and lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Multiple swaths of widespread damaging winds appear likely. Large to very large hail and several tornadoes will also occur with supercells. A few of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... A broad area of severe potential remains apparent today and tonight, with all severe hazards likely. The main mid-level shortwave trough of interest will move quickly northeastward from the Ozarks/mid MO Valley to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, as larger-scale upper troughing gradually becomes more established over the MS Valley through the period. At the surface, the primary surface low over eastern IA this morning is expected to develop northeastward towards northern Lower MI by this evening, and eventually into southern Ontario/Quebec late tonight. An attendant cold front will sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest/OH Valley and mid/lower MS Valley through the period, while a warm front lifts northward in tandem with the surface low over portions of the Great Lakes. A dryline will mix eastward this afternoon across parts of north-central to south-central TX. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes... Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of northeast MO in associated with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. This activity should generally remain sub-severe, although isolated strong/gusty winds could occur with modest daytime heating this morning. Otherwise, a corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Robust convection appears likely to initiate by 18-19Z, and it will spread quickly northeastward across much of the OH Valley and southern Great Lakes regions this afternoon and evening. A 50-70 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection. Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inch diameter) given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear. A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters moves quickly east-northeastward over the OH Valley and southern Lower MI. With a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet also present, strong low-level shear will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours, until convection outpaces the low-level moisture return and eventually weakens over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. ...Central/East Texas into the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South and Southeast... A band of mostly elevated convection developed earlier this morning over portions of north-central/east TX, likely in association with large-scale ascent preceding a westerly mid/upper-level jet nosing into central TX. While the overall environment remains quite favorable for organized severe convection, messy convective modes have tended to keep the severe hail threat isolated so far. Still, some risk for hail will continue through the morning. Strong destabilization is anticipated today ahead of this convection and a separate area of elevated thunderstorms over southern MO. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will continue to stream northward across TX ahead of the dryline, and the lower/mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the cold front. This rich low-level moisture, combined with very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating, are expected to foster around 2000-3000 MLCAPE by early to mid afternoon. Rapid and intense thunderstorm initiation will likely occur by 18-21Z from parts of north-central/east TX to the Mid-South/mid MS Valley. Supercells are expected initially, with 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear supporting robust updraft organization and rotation. A very favorable setup remains apparent for large to very large hail, as strong instability and deep-layer shear combine with steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels. Some of this very large hail could reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With the primary shortwave trough ejecting to the northeast, low-level winds are forecast to remain fairly subdued through the afternoon and early evening, before gradually strengthening again tonight through early Monday morning. A risk for several tornadoes should be focused over parts of the Mid-South, a few of which could be strong given a favorable supercell mode. Similar to farther north in the OH Valley, a transition to more linear/cluster mode is expected this evening and overnight as the cold front continues advancing southeastward. A risk for line-embedded tornadoes should continue, and an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is likely through the end of the period. Based on latest guidance trends, and to overlap with the Day 2 Convective Outlook, adjustments have been made to the southern/eastern extent of the risk areas across the lower MS Valley and Southeast. ...Florida Peninsula... A weak mid-level perturbation will move eastward over FL today. Modestly enhanced winds aloft, and a veering profile with height through mid levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some thunderstorm organization. Any convection that develops in tandem with daytime heating this afternoon and early evening could pose an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Some adjustments have been made to the Marginal Risk across the FL Peninsula based on latest guidance trends. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/30/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 30 12:49:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0293 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0293 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of north/central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 300823Z - 301030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible into early morning across portions of north/central Texas. DISCUSSION...Isolated elevated convection is developing within the core of the upper level jet streak across parts of north/central Texas. This area is also within a weak baroclinic zone and area of low-level confluence. Latest mesoanalysis and forecast soundings show moderate instability (up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), aided by steep midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km. Additionally, supercell wind profiles and 50+ kt effective shear will likely support organized cells. With the main area of large-scale ascent gradually lifting northeast of the region, convection is expected to remain rather isolated. Nevertheless, the environment will support storms capable of producing large hail. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31279897 32039870 32539787 32519689 32309618 32029569 31409555 31029578 30799632 30749760 30739860 31219903 31279897 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE HRO TO 30 SSE SGF TO 40 NNE SGF TO 25 SSE SZL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294 ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC015-029-043-059-067-105-125-131-141-161-169-213-215-225-229- 301040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CAMDEN CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MORGAN PHELPS PULASKI TANEY TEXAS WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 69 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 300550Z - 301200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 69 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Far Southeast Kansas Southwest and South-Central Missouri Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday morning from 1250 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should continue to move quickly northeastward early this morning while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds, with peak gusts potentially up to 55-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west southwest of Muskogee OK to 45 miles northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 67...WW 68... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Gleason Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases. Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly high confidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread convective development. With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk. Day 6/Friday, the surface front should remain quasi-stationary, but short-wave ridging should increase as a cut-off low evolves across the West. As such, much of the Day 6 convection may occur to the cool side of the surface front, in the zone of warm advection/isentropic ascent. While some severe risk will likely evolve, mainly in the form of hail, uncertainty overall (given the ridging aloft) precludes inclusion of a Day 6 risk area. By the weekend, deviation in model solutions increases, due to uncertain evolution of the low/trough over the West. As such, no risk areas will be included. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop after dark from central and northeastern Kansas east-northeastward to northwestern Illinois, where large hail would be the main severe risk. ...Mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valley, southward into Texas... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to amplify over the western U.S. Tuesday, as several short-wave features rotate through the flow. A prominent/initial wave is forecast to shift into the central/northern Plains overnight, evolving into a closed low over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In response, a surface low over the central High Plains early in the day is forecast to deepen/shift northeastward into the Mid Missouri Valley area overnight. A trailing cold front will shift across the central and southern Plains through the second half of the period. Diurnal convection ahead of the advancing upper system, and attendant cold front, should remain largely suppressed through the day by stout capping. A dryline storm or two cannot be ruled out, and very limited/conditional potential for hail or a damaging gust may exist across southern Oklahoma south into central Texas. Greater risk will evolve overnight, mainly with elevated storms near and north of a warm front lifting across Kansas/Missouri. Large hail would be the primary risk in this area, with shear favoring supercells. While the NAM hinders convection south of Kansas through the period (due to maintenance of a capping inversion), both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that isolated storms may initiate along the cold front. While only MRGL risk will be included at this time, due to the conditional risk for surface-based/all-hazards risk should storms develop along the front, this will need to be reassessed in later outlooks with possible SLGT risk upgrade. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DEQ TO 20 WNW RKR TO 15 ESE MKO TO 25 WSW MKO. ..LEITMAN..03/30/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-300840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON KSC021-300840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-067-077-085-097-105-109-119- 125-131-141-145-161-167-169-185-209-213-215-217-225-229- 300840- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- promoting lee troughing over the High Plains. A modest pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee trough and boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across much of NM into southeast CO during the afternoon. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave trough, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. In the low-levels, a weak lee cyclone will migrate southward along the southern High Plains. ...Central/Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... Deep boundary-layer mixing will extend into the base of the strong westerly flow aloft during the afternoon. As a result, 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop amid single-digit/lower teens RH and lower/middle 70s temperatures. These warm, dry, and windy conditions will promote critical fire-weather conditions, given dry/receptive fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms -- with threat for fairly widespread damaging winds and tornadoes -- are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Parts of eastern/southern New York southward to the central and eastern Gulf Coast area... An upper trough will continue advancing steadily eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. Monday, reaching the Atlantic Coast states overnight. Accompanying this system, a cold front just west of the Appalachians at the start of the period is likewise expected to progress eastward with time, crossing the Appalachians during the day, and then the East Coast states before moving offshore overnight. Ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms -- likely accompanied by ongoing severe risk -- are forecast to be crossing the central Gulf Coast region. Ahead of the ongoing convection, and the advancing front, moistening/destabilization is forecast to occur east of the mountains, with at least meager surface-based CAPE expected to evolve as far north as the southeastern New York vicinity. This will support development of thunderstorms near/ahead of the front as it advances eastward. Favorably strong flow aloft will spread across the region ahead of the upper system, supporting organized/severe storms. Northern portions of the risk area -- where CAPE should remain modest -- will likely experience locally damaging wind gusts as the primary severe risk. Farther south, greater instability will support stronger convection, including linear bands near the front with local/embedded rotation, as well as isolated supercells ahead of the boundary. As such, risk for damaging wind gusts will be accompanied by potential for hail, and tornadoes appear likely as well given ample low-level shear and a relatively moist boundary layer. Storms/severe risk should persist to the coast, eventually moving offshore overnight. ..Goss.. 03/30/2025 Read more