MD 0321 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 78...81...82... FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee...northeast Mississippi...northern and central Alabama...and northwest Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 78...81...82... Valid 310721Z - 310915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 78, 81, 82 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will continue eastward over the next few hours. Downstream watch issuance will likely be needed for parts of the region. DISCUSSION...The line of severe storms over Middle Tennessee is expected to move into Tornado Watch 82 by/near 08z, allowing Tornado Watch 78 to expire on time. Tracking ongoing convection over northeast MS/northwest AL, this activity also should be close to the edge of Tornado Watch 81 near its expiration time of 10z. A new watch will likely be needed to cover portions of northeast MS into northern AL/northwest GA as additional storm development across northern MS/AL is expected, and as ongoing storms shift east the remainder of the night. Sufficient instability and strong deep-layer flow will sustain strong to severe convection through the overnight hours. Special 06z RAOB from JAN indicates some mild inhibition in the 850-700 mb layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and supercell wind profiles suggest some continued risk is possible into early morning. Tornado potential may be limited by stronger low-level inhibition and more modest 0-1 km shear. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours to replace portions of Tornado Watch 81, and to include points downstream across northern and central AL into northwest GA. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 36048534 36148448 35818396 35128401 34508448 33618560 33108652 32938733 33078818 33768846 34188863 34518867 34718863 35028838 36048534 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW LFK TO 40 N IER TO 30 WNW MLU TO 25 SW LLQ. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-310940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC003-009-011-013-021-025-029-031-035-039-041-043-049-059-061- 065-067-069-073-079-081-083-085-097-107-111-115-123-127- 310940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS UNION VERNON WEST CARROLL WINN Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE CSV TO 25 WNW TYS TO 40 SE LOZ. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC001-007-009-011-025-057-065-067-093-105-107-115-121-123-139- 143-145-153-173-310940- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CLAIBORNE GRAINGER HAMILTON HANCOCK KNOX LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE POLK RHEA ROANE SEQUATCHIE UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 82 TORNADO TN 310540Z - 311200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 82 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Monday morning from 140 AM until 800 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will spread eastward through the early morning hours across eastern Tennessee. A couple of tornadoes and scattered damaging winds should be the main threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Knoxville TN to 10 miles west southwest of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79...WW 80...WW 81... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PBF TO 15 E UOX TO 45 SSE MKL. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-310940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MORGAN WALKER WINSTON MSC003-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-135-139-141-145-161- 310940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA Read more

WW 0081 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PBF TO 15 E UOX TO 45 SSE MKL. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 81 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-310940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT CULLMAN FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MORGAN WALKER WINSTON MSC003-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-135-139-141-145-161- 310940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE MONROE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION YALOBUSHA Read more

WW 81 TORNADO AL AR MS TN 310355Z - 311000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 81 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Far East-Central Arkansas Northern Mississippi Far Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1055 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue eastward/southeastward into the region tonight. Environmental conditions support the potential strong wind gusts and large hail with storms embedded within the approaching convective line. Some line-embedded tornadoes could occur as well. Additionally, a few supercells are also possible, particularly over northern MS. These supercells would be capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 55 miles south of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79...WW 80... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 34035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night from the Lower Great Lakes, the Mid MS Valley and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A powerful, negative tilt, upper trough will move out of the Plains, over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Wednesday. Accompanied by a 100+ kt jet streak, very strong forcing for ascent will overspread a large unstable warm sector from the Great Lakes, OH Valley and MS Valley. A strong cold front will sweep eastward with widespread to numerous thunderstorms expected. An outbreak of widespread severe storms including: significant tornadoes, severe wind gusts and very large hail is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Midwest to the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley... Early in the forecast period, one or more clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across portions of KS/MO into the upper MS Valley. Very strong synoptic ascent at the exit region of the H5 jet may allow these storms to persist through the morning as the air mass downstream slowly destabilizes. Re-intensification is possible as storms move farther northeast into the lower Great Lakes by early to mid afternoon. Depending on the timing, these storms may also outrun the warm sector. This could limit the severe potential to points farther south if the airmass is unable to recover. Regardless, very strong effective shear (60-80 kt) and large hodographs would support organized storms capable of significant damaging winds, and a tornado risk. ...Mid MS Valley... Immediately southeast of the primary upper low track, more subtle forcing for ascent will overspread a rapidly moistening air mass across the Ozarks, eastern OK and the Mid MS Valley. The air mass will rapidly destabilize and become uncapped with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg likely by mid to late morning. Storms are likely to form by midday as ascent overspreads a pre-frontal trough/diffuse dryline. Some boundary parallel flow is likely suggesting a mixed mode of cellular and bowing segments. However, the very strong troposphereic shear profiles, courtesy of a 50+ kt low-level jet, favor significant supercells as the primary storm mode. A secondary surface low will serve to further back low-level flow and expand very large hodographs from the late afternoon into the evening hours. Very large hail, significant tornadoes and damaging winds all appear likely. The severe threat will continue overnight with some upscale growth across the Mid MS/TN Valley within the broadly unstable air mass. Consideration was given to higher severe probabilities across parts of the Mid MS Valley for the potential for multiple long-lived significant supercells. However, confidence in the exact storm mode and location of maximum threat remains unclear given some potential for morning convection and model timing variance. ...ArkLaTX... Displaced south of the primary wave, forcing for ascent is somewhat weaker than farther north. Isolated to scattered convection is expected along the advancing Pacific front/surface trough from mid to late afternoon from northeast TX, into northern LA and southern AR. Upper 60s F dewpoints and elongated hodographs suggest supercells with all hazards will be possible as they spread east into the lower MS valley overnight. Later in the evening, a second round of convection may evolve near the Red River as low-level warm advection increases. The Pacific front should gradually lift north as a warm front, allowing some elevated thunderstorms to develop across southern OK and north TX. Moderate buoyancy and continued strong flow aloft would likely support a risk for hail. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night from the Lower Great Lakes, the Mid MS Valley and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... A powerful, negative tilt, upper trough will move out of the Plains, over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes Wednesday. Accompanied by a 100+ kt jet streak, very strong forcing for ascent will overspread a large unstable warm sector from the Great Lakes, OH Valley and MS Valley. A strong cold front will sweep eastward with widespread to numerous thunderstorms expected. An outbreak of widespread severe storms including: significant tornadoes, severe wind gusts and very large hail is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. ...Midwest to the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley... Early in the forecast period, one or more clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across portions of KS/MO into the upper MS Valley. Very strong synoptic ascent at the exit region of the H5 jet may allow these storms to persist through the morning as the air mass downstream slowly destabilizes. Re-intensification is possible as storms move farther northeast into the lower Great Lakes by early to mid afternoon. Depending on the timing, these storms may also outrun the warm sector. This could limit the severe potential to points farther south if the airmass is unable to recover. Regardless, very strong effective shear (60-80 kt) and large hodographs would support organized storms capable of significant damaging winds, and a tornado risk. ...Mid MS Valley... Immediately southeast of the primary upper low track, more subtle forcing for ascent will overspread a rapidly moistening air mass across the Ozarks, eastern OK and the Mid MS Valley. The air mass will rapidly destabilize and become uncapped with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg likely by mid to late morning. Storms are likely to form by midday as ascent overspreads a pre-frontal trough/diffuse dryline. Some boundary parallel flow is likely suggesting a mixed mode of cellular and bowing segments. However, the very strong troposphereic shear profiles, courtesy of a 50+ kt low-level jet, favor significant supercells as the primary storm mode. A secondary surface low will serve to further back low-level flow and expand very large hodographs from the late afternoon into the evening hours. Very large hail, significant tornadoes and damaging winds all appear likely. The severe threat will continue overnight with some upscale growth across the Mid MS/TN Valley within the broadly unstable air mass. Consideration was given to higher severe probabilities across parts of the Mid MS Valley for the potential for multiple long-lived significant supercells. However, confidence in the exact storm mode and location of maximum threat remains unclear given some potential for morning convection and model timing variance. ...ArkLaTX... Displaced south of the primary wave, forcing for ascent is somewhat weaker than farther north. Isolated to scattered convection is expected along the advancing Pacific front/surface trough from mid to late afternoon from northeast TX, into northern LA and southern AR. Upper 60s F dewpoints and elongated hodographs suggest supercells with all hazards will be possible as they spread east into the lower MS valley overnight. Later in the evening, a second round of convection may evolve near the Red River as low-level warm advection increases. The Pacific front should gradually lift north as a warm front, allowing some elevated thunderstorms to develop across southern OK and north TX. Moderate buoyancy and continued strong flow aloft would likely support a risk for hail. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually strengthen across the southern/central Rockies -- well ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will promote lee troughing over the High Plains, with a modest pressure gradient across southeast CO and much of NM. As a result, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap 10-15 percent RH, favoring elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon across the central and southern Plains, with the severe threat expected to spread eastward Tuesday night. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Central and Southern Plains into the Midwest... A somewhat complicated convective evolution is expected across parts of the central and Southern Plains late Tuesday. A powerful mid-level trough and accompanying 100+ kt jet streak are forecast to eject eastward over the central Rockies into the Plains late in the afternoon and into overnight Tuesday. Strong ascent will aid in the development and intensification of a deep lee low helping to rapidly draw substantial surface moisture northward late. Southerly winds will act on a sizable reservoir of rich moisture with mean W of 14-16 g/kg across south Texas and the western Gulf Basin. Higher surface dewpoints are forecast to rapidly return northward across much of the southern and central Plains. While model disagreement in regard to the speed of moisture return persists, an ensemble solution of guidance suggests upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are likely across the central Plains, with mid 60s F possible across the southern Plains by 00z. Cooling mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough will aid in destabilization ahead of a surging dryline, supporting initial convective development close to the low across pats of NE and northern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs suggest the primary risk will be hail, some damaging winds are also possible given the relatively dry profile. Additional, likely elevated storms are expected later in the evening as low-level warm air advection increases and spreads into parts of the Midwest. Hail is the primary threat overnight. Farther south into KS, OK and western/central TX, a more conditional risk for supercell development is expected late afternoon to near sunset. Models vary greatly in the degree of mixing and heating near a sharpening dryline from south-central KS, into western OK, and central TX. Forecast soundings show some residual cloud cover and capping may remain east of the boundary through the late afternoon associated with the rapid return of moisture. However, some broad-scale ascent, strong isolation and solenoidal circulations may allow for isolated storm development initially within the more mixed air mass farther west. Should this occur, moderate buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear would support isolated supercells with a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. Should storms form, they will track east-northeast into the more sheltered air mass Tuesday evening. As moisture continues to improve, very strong low-level shear profiles are expected to develop with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet. All hazards, including a few tornadoes, significant hail and damaging gusts are possible given increasingly large hodographs (0-1km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2) Tuesday night. Additional storm development will be possible along the cold front late Tuesday night which will spread eastward across the Plains and potentially approach the Ozarks overnight. Questions remain regarding the mode of overnight convection and whether it can remain surface-based, but a conditional risk of all severe hazards could persist to the end of the period. ..Lyons/Goss.. 03/31/2025 Read more

WW 0077 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E TPL TO 45 WNW LFK TO 35 SW SHV TO 35 E SHV. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 77 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC031-043-081-085-310640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE DE SOTO GRANT RED RIVER SABINE TXC005-041-073-185-225-289-313-347-373-395-403-405-407-419-455- 471-310640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA BRAZOS CHEROKEE GRIMES HOUSTON LEON MADISON NACOGDOCHES POLK ROBERTSON SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0078 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE UOX TO 55 N MSL TO 15 SSW BNA TO 45 ENE BNA TO 55 N CSV. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-055-061-071-087-099-101-109-117- 119-133-137-141-149-159-175-177-181-185-310640- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS GILES GRUNDY HARDIN JACKSON LAWRENCE LEWIS MCNAIRY MARSHALL MAURY OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM RUTHERFORD SMITH VAN BUREN WARREN WAYNE WHITE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MS...CNTRL/SRN AL...THE FL PNHDL...MUCH OF GA...SC...AND CNTRL NC... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized thunderstorm clusters may overspread much of the Southeast today, accompanied by swaths of strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... After a period of deepening across southern Ontario into Quebec, models indicate that a modest surface cyclone will migrate across the St. Lawrence Valley into the Canadian Maritimes during this period, in advance of a significant mid-level trough gradually turning east of northwestern Ontario. As this occurs, a lower amplitude mid-level perturbation of mid-latitude Pacific origins is forecast to accelerate east of the south central Great Plains through the Mid South, southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic coast vicinity by late tonight. Upstream, a seasonably strong mid/upper jet is forecast to continue digging inland of the California coast through the southern Rockies, as flow undergoes amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. It appears that this will be accompanied by cyclogenesis to the lee of the Colorado Rockies by late tonight. However, through daybreak Tuesday, appreciable low-level moisture return may be confined to a narrow plume west of the lower Rio Grande Valley into portions of the Texas South Plains, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air, in the wake of a stalling cold front near or just inland of the Gulf into southern Mid Atlantic coasts. Prior to this frontal passage, mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points may linger across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period, while advecting east-northeastward across parts of the eastern Gulf into south Atlantic coast states, beneath the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Plains. ...Eastern Gulf/South Atlantic Coast states... Associated with the low amplitude short wave emerging from the south central Great Plains, there remains a considerable signal, within model output, that forcing for ascent within the moderately unstable (including 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPE) pre-frontal environment will be sufficient to contribute to the evolution of an organized cluster of convection across Mississippi and Louisiana by 12Z this morning. It appears that destabilization ahead of this activity will be sufficient to maintain or support renewed intensification across Alabama/Georgia and adjacent portions of Florida, into the Carolinas, by late afternoon or early this evening. Aided by ambient flow associated with a progressive 30-50+ kt jet in the 850-500 mb layer, at least some convection-allowing guidance and other model output is suggestive that convectively augmented rear-inflow may support one or more swaths of damaging wind gusts. ...Northern Mid Atlantic... Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW LOZ TO 15 SSW JKL TO 35 SW HTS TO 20 NE HTS TO 25 SW PKB. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-115-119-121-127-131-133-147-153-159-193- 195-235-310640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAWRENCE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MARTIN PERRY PIKE WHITLEY VAC051-105-169-195-720-310640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKENSON LEE SCOTT WISE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 80 SEVERE TSTM KY OH VA WV 310255Z - 311000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 80 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Far Southern Ohio Far Western Virginia Western West Virginia * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1055 PM until 600 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts will continue into the region as the ongoing convective line progresses eastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Charleston WV to 30 miles southeast of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72...WW 74...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0316 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...Northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 310333Z - 310600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across part of northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama over the next few hour. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance appears likely. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed MCS located over western Kentucky and western Tennessee. The severe MCS is located near the northern edge of a moderately unstable airmass, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a distinct vorticity maxima and shortwave trough that is moving through the Tennessee Valley, evident on water vapor imagery. In addition to the moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear is evident on the Nashville WSR-88D VWP with 0-6 km shear around 50 knots. The VWP also has strong speed and directional shear in the boundary layer. This will support a continued severe threat with the line. Short-term model forecasts move the southern end of the line east-southeastward across northern Mississippi and into northwest Alabama over the next few hours. The line will likely be accompanied by damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34468668 33958715 33518820 33088971 33079049 33219086 33509109 33899103 34359073 34779016 34958928 34968780 34868688 34468668 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more