WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AAF TO 10 SSE TLH TO 30 NE MGR. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GMZ735-755-312140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 88 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA CW 311550Z - 312200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 88 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Alabama Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move into the Watch from the west and a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-65 mph) may accompany more intense portions of the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Panama City FL to 25 miles south of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 84...WW 85...WW 86...WW 87... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0089 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 89 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 89 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-047-065-067-079-089-121-123-312140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-069-075- 101-103-109-127-155-161-165-173-179-183-185-191-229-251-267-299- 305-312140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH CAMDEN CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE COOK ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN IRWIN JEFF DAVIS JENKINS LANIER LIBERTY LONG LOWNDES MCINTOSH Read more

WW 89 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC CW 311915Z - 010100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Florida Southern and Southeast Georgia Southern into Central South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line will continue east into the Watch area this afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) are the primary hazard and will mainly focus with the stronger surges and inflections within the thunderstorm band. A brief tornado is possible with a stronger mesovortex or embedded circulation within the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Orangeburg SC to 65 miles south of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A mid-level longwave trough will meander eastward across the central CONUS through the week, with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the Plains on Day 3 (Wednesday), encouraging rapid and strong surface cyclone development along the Colorado/Kansas border. Dry downslope flow will support critically dry and windy conditions across portions of the southern High Plains, where 70 percent Critical highlights have been maintained. Thereafter, dry and locally breezy conditions will persist amid a lee-troughing environment over the southern High Plains through the remainder of the week, before a cold front sweeps across the southern Plains and limits wildfire-spread conditions through the weekend. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0090 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW VDI TO 20 NW VDI TO 10 S AGS TO 30 W CAE TO 20 ESE SPA TO 10 WSW HKY. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC033-107-209-245-271-279-283-309-312140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURKE EMANUEL MONTGOMERY RICHMOND TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WHEELER NCC025-045-071-109-119-179-312140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CABARRUS CLEVELAND GASTON LINCOLN MECKLENBURG UNION SCC003-011-021-023-039-057-063-071-079-087-091-312140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AIKEN BARNWELL CHEROKEE Read more

WW 90 SEVERE TSTM NC SC CW 312005Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 90 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into Southern North Carolina Northeast South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Small thunderstorm clusters and a linear band of thunderstorms will move east across much of the Watch area this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms will pose primarily a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Raleigh NC to 40 miles southeast of Florence SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 87...WW 88...WW 89... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...20z Update... Multiple linearly organized clusters are ongoing late this afternoon, focused across western South Carolina, and east-central/south-central Georgia into northern Florida near the Big Bend. Damaging wind potential, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will continue to be prevalent as storms continue east/northeastward across the Piedmont of the Carolinas and toward the coastal Southeast. Farther north, scattered storm development is still expected by early evening near/east of the Blue Ridge toward the Delmarva and eastern PA and NJ vicinity. See Mesoscale Discussions and prior outlook discussion below for additional details. Otherwise, have added low severe wind-related probabilities across the southern Florida Peninsula where the east coast sea breeze could focus a few strong/locally severe storms until around sunset. ..Guyer.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough rapidly moving northeast over the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent Canada, while another disturbance moves from the Ozarks into the upper OH Valley/southern Appalachians by early evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... A squall line is ongoing from the southern Appalachians south-southwest to the mouth of the MS River. An extensive cloud shield ahead of the convective line will tend to limit stronger heating this afternoon. However, a moist airmass characterized by lower 60s north to 70 deg F dewpoints along the Gulf Coast, will yield weak to moderate buoyancy. Despite considerable cloudiness, filtered heating will probably result in a re-invigoration of the convective line. Some strengthening of low to mid-level southwesterly flow may focus a corridor of more concentrated wind-damage potential from central GA northeastward through portions of the central and eastern Carolinas. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Model guidance indicates weak buoyancy across the Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. Appreciable heating has occurred through midday with temperatures rising through the upper 70s deg F. Despite some mixing of boundary-layer moisture, SBCAPE 500-1000 J/kg will support scattered storms developing this afternoon. Steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and moderate low to mid-level flow will probably yield scattered damaging gusts later this afternoon into the evening (55-65 mph). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the ongoing fire weather highlights to account for the latest guidance consensus. Extremely Critical conditions still appear likely on at least a spotty basis, but it remains unclear if more persistent Extremely Critical conditions will overspread areas with relatively greater fuel loading. As such, Extremely Critical highlights have been withheld for now. Nonetheless, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions still appear likely across much of the southern High Plains tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-90-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains, Central/Southern New Mexico, and Southeast Arizona... West of the dryline, diurnal heating beneath increasing high-level clouds, combined with very strong downslope warming/drying, will yield 10-15 percent RH and an axis of middle/upper 80s F temperatures over the southern High Plains. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). These factors will support widespread high-end critical conditions and the potential for rapid spread of wildfires. While much of NM, southeast CO, southwest KS, and the northern/western TX/OK Panhandles will experience extremely critical meteorological conditions (30+ mph sustained surface winds and lower teens RH), current indications are that minimal fuel loading and/or marginal fuel dryness across many of these areas limit the need for such highlights. The one exception may be over the western/northern portion of the TX/OK Panhandles, though this area appears too localized for an upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and significant tornadoes are expected. ...Synopsis... No major changes have been made to the outlook, aside from tightening the gradient in severe probabilities across the southeast portion of the threat area. An outbreak of severe storms still appears possible, with a threat of significant tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and hail. An upgrade remains very possible in subsequent outlooks for some portion of the Enhanced Risk area. A strong mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday, as a powerful jet (80-120 kt at 500 mb) overspreads parts of Midwest and mid/upper MS Valleys. A cold front attendant to the cyclone will move eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected along/ahead of the front. ...Midwest to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... One or more clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of IA/MO/IL. An isolated severe threat may persist through the morning, with some intensification and/or redevelopment as convection spreads east-northeast in conjunction with the surface cyclone and cold front. The northward extent of substantial destabilization remains in question due to the influence of early convection, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes region during the afternoon and evening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity... Substantial low-level moistening is expected from the ArkLaTex into the MS/OH Valleys during the day on Wednesday, aided by a persistently strong (40-60 kt) low-level jet. While the primary surface cyclone will become increasingly removed from this region with time, favorable low-level moisture transport and upper-level difluence will support widespread thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from IL southwestward into the ArkLaTex region. The environment will be quite favorable for tornadic supercells, with rich low-level moisture, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and at least moderate instability. There will be some potential for storm interactions and upscale growth given the likelihood of persistent deep convection within the prefrontal corridor, but significant tornadoes will be possible if any supercells can be sustained through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, scattered to widespread damaging winds and large to very large hail will also be possible along/ahead of the front. With lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of early-day storms and potential for long-lived supercells within a corridor of widespread convection, no upgrade was made with this outlook. However, it remains very possible that a categorical upgrade will eventually be needed for some part of the region. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex overnight... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across western CONUS through the period, and a low-amplitude shortwave may emerge from this trough late Wednesday night. The cold front will tend to slow down or stall across the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex, with renewed low-level jet development forecast into early Thursday morning. Redevelopment of storms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is expected near and north of the front, with moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear still supportive of organized convection. A threat for hail and damaging wind gusts will accompany the overnight storms, and some tornado threat could evolve with storms in the vicinity of the surface boundary. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

MD 0326 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87... FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Central/northern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87... Valid 311655Z - 311830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds and a brief QLCS tornado remain possible as an organized line continues east through parts of central/northern Georgia. DISCUSSION...The portion of the convective line moving through central/northern Georgia has shown greater acceleration over the past hour or so. KFFC VAD data showed low level winds increasing to 50-65 kts as the outflow/gust front passed the radar. With buoyancy increasing ahead of the line, severe/damaging wind gusts should become more probable into the afternoon. Furthermore, low-level shear vectors are somewhat favorably oriented with the line and a brief QLCS tornado remain a possibility. A few line-embedded circulations have been noted on KFFC velocity data over the last 30 minutes. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 33598494 34098471 34288365 34398315 33938243 33118247 31978308 31768332 31698376 31838475 32218507 32868507 33598494 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

MD 0327 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88... FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Southern Georgia into North Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88... Valid 311754Z - 312000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will likely continue into more of southern Georgia and North Florida. An additional severe thunderstorm watch for parts of these areas is probable this afternoon. DISCUSSION...With surface temperatures ahead of the ongoing convective line reaching the low 80s F, MLCAPE has risen to around 2000 J/kg. As the line progresses east, the expectation is for continued damaging gust potential into southeast Georgia and North Florida. There will be some waning influence of the upper-level trough and shear will remain greater to the north/west. This makes the intensity of the line somewhat uncertain with eastward extent. A severe thunderstorm watch will most likely be considered for portions of southeast Georgia and North Florida. Regarding a QLCS tornado threat, KEOX data suggest that there were two brief TDS in far southeastern Alabama. Regional VAD data continue to show limited low-level hodograph curvature. Trends in the convective line and the environment continue to suggest the possibility of the QLCS tornado, though any circulation should be brief. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30228592 31408544 31858514 31858451 31718208 31578148 31128153 30228149 29808233 30228592 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible, including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at 500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone will intensify through the day across the central High Plains, before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday night. Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation along/east of the dryline through early evening. Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection spreads east-northeastward into the early evening. Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon, and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early evening. Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area. There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO. A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts. Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable environment. Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist through the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night across the central and southern Plains. The greater coverage of storms is expected across parts of central and eastern Kansas, but significant severe storms will be possible farther south into Oklahoma and north Texas as well. All hazards are possible, including the potential for very large hail and a couple strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the western/central CONUS on Tuesday, as a powerful jet (80-100 kt at 500 mb) begins to impinge on the central/southern Great Plains later in the period. In response to this trough and jet, a surface cyclone will intensify through the day across the central High Plains, before moving northeastward toward the lower MO Valley Tuesday night. Rich low-level moisture will initially be confined to central/south TX, but will stream rapidly northward through the day and evening in response to the deepening cyclone and a strong low-level jet. The magnitude and timing of richer moisture returns remain somewhat uncertain, and will be crucial for the potential of storm initiation along/east of the dryline through early evening. Initial high-based storms are expected to develop during the afternoon across parts of central NE, where low-level moisture will remain limited but stronger early-day ascent will spread across the region. Buoyancy will likely remain modest this far north, but increasing low-level and deep-layer flow/shear could support a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and hail as this convection spreads east-northeastward into the early evening. Farther south, the environment along/east of the dryline into parts of western/central KS/OK and northwest TX will become increasingly favorable for organized severe storms, as upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints (greater with south extent) spread northward and deep-layer flow fields become rather intense. However, lingering CINH will tend to inhibit initiation through much of the afternoon, and the late arrival of richer boundary-layer moisture results in uncertainty regarding potential for storm development through early evening. Any supercells that can develop along/east of the dryline would pose an initial threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Warm-sector supercells that are able to persist into the evening will encounter increasing boundary-layer moisture and low-level shear/SRH and would pose an increasing tornado threat. The Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of OK/TX, but any increase in the signal for storm development along the dryline would necessitate one or more categorical upgrades across this area. There is greater confidence in storm coverage during the evening into late Tuesday night across parts of eastern KS and western MO. A strong (60+ kt) low-level jet will become focused into this region, as the surface low begins to move east-northeastward across KS. Convection may remain slightly elevated across this area, but moderate to locally strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support a threat of large/very-large hail and severe gusts. Surface-based supercells could persist near the southern periphery of this cluster, with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 supporting a tornado threat, including the conditional threat of a strong tornado. An Enhanced Risk has been added where confidence is greatest in storm coverage within an increasingly favorable environment. Overnight, additional storm development will be possible along the cold front into parts of OK/TX, within a very favorable conditional environment for organized storms. Given the timing and a tendency for deep-layer flow to become parallel to the front, questions remain regarding the mode of overnight storms and whether they will be surface-based, but some all-hazards severe threat could persist through the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 03/31/2025 Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOI TO 5 SE CSG TO 30 E LGC TO 10 SE ATL TO 40 NNE ATL TO 50 NW AHN TO 50 SSE TYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0326 ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-011-013-021-023-033-035-053-059-073-079-081-091-093-105- 107-117-119-125-133-135-137-139-141-147-151-153-157-159-163-167- 169-171-175-181-189-193-195-197-207-209-211-217-219-221-225-231- 235-237-241-245-247-249-255-257-259-261-263-265-269-271-279-281- 283-289-293-297-301-303-307-309-311-315-317-319-311840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BANKS BARROW BIBB BLECKLEY BURKE BUTTS CHATTAHOOCHEE CLARKE COLUMBIA CRAWFORD CRISP DODGE DOOLY ELBERT EMANUEL FORSYTH FRANKLIN GLASCOCK GREENE GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL HANCOCK HART HENRY HOUSTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES LAMAR LAURENS LINCOLN MCDUFFIE MACON MADISON MARION Read more

WW 0088 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CEW TO 25 ESE CEW TO 25 SW DHN TO 35 ENE TOI. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 88 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-311840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-073-077-129-133-311840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC007-037-061-071-087-095-099-131-177-201-205-239-243-253-273- 275-277-287-321-311840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more