MD 0325 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0834 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...Portions of western/central Georgia and the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311334Z - 311530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds will continue into Georgia and the central/eastern Florida Panhandle. A less certain and conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is likely this morning. DISCUSSION...Modest surface heating is ongoing in parts of central/southwestern Georgia where cloud cover has been more broken. These areas have seen temperatures rise into the low 70s F this morning. At least muted surface heating can be expected into the afternoon. Observed 12Z soundings from Birmingham/Atlanta show steep mid-level lapse rates, but also subsidence in the wake of a weaker lead shortwave/MCV. With an upstream shortwave trough now entering the Ozarks/Mid-South, additional mid-level ascent should promote more favorable thermodynamic profiles with time. Current VAD data from the region also shows relatively weak low-level flow. Again, as the trough moves into the Southeast, an increase in 850 mb winds is expected to occur. Overall, the primary severe threat should remain damaging winds. The tornado threat is less certain as, even with an increase in low-level winds, forecast hodographs still are rather marginal. Nonetheless, a few QLCS tornadoes or perhaps even a warm-advection-driven supercell tornado ahead of the line are still possible. A watch will likely be needed this morning as activity currently in Alabama and southern Mississippi continues east. ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 31048593 33328503 34118497 34588476 34698430 34488371 33598281 31908309 30498418 29818459 29518518 29718592 30418632 31048593 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE GPT TO 35 NNW MOB TO 45 W GZH TO 25 SW SEM. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-035-039-041-053-097-099-131-311540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE WILCOX FLC033-091-113-311540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA MSC039-311540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SEM TO 20 ESE TCL TO 15 ENE BHM TO 30 N GAD TO 10 NW CHA. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-007-011-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-047-049-051-055- 081-085-087-101-105-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-311540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH LEE LOWNDES MACON MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA GAC015-045-047-055-057-083-111-115-123-129-143-213-223-227-233- 295-313-311540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE Read more

WW 85 SEVERE TSTM AL GA MS 310945Z - 311700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 85 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Far Northwest Georgia Northeast Mississippi * Effective this Monday morning from 445 AM until NOON CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple lines and clusters of thunderstorms are expected to spread eastward this morning across much of northern/central Alabama and into far northwest Georgia. Scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity, although isolated hail and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to 20 miles south southwest of Selma AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 81...WW 82...WW 83...WW 84... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TO 20 WSW GPT. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-311540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE MSC045-047-059-311540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-311540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE 7R4 TO 20 WSW GPT. ..WENDT..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-311540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES TERREBONNE MSC045-047-059-311540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-311540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI SOUND Read more

WW 84 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 310845Z - 311600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 84 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning from 345 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to consolidate into a line as they move east-southeastward this morning. Scattered damaging winds should be the main threat, with peak gusts potentially up to 60-70 mph. Isolated large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter and a tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Houma LA to 20 miles south southeast of Slidell LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 80...WW 81...WW 82...WW 83... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to overspread much of the Southeast into the Carolinas today, accompanied by swaths of damaging to severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario will race quickly northeastward into Quebec today, while another low-amplitude perturbation moves from the Ozarks to the eastern CONUS by this evening. The primary surface low will develop northward into Quebec in tandem with the lead shortwave trough, while a trailing cold front continues east-southeastward over much of the Atlantic States and Southeast. Ahead of the front, a corridor of low-level moisture will support the potential for surface-based thunderstorms for much of the day. ...Southeast to the Carolinas... Robust convection is ongoing this morning from southern LA to the northern AL vicinity, along or ahead of the cold front. Although there is some lingering/modest inhibition, weak to moderate instability will likely be present ahead of the lines/clusters to support a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds across the central Gulf Coast states this morning into the early afternoon. While boundary-layer flow has veered and is fairly modest across this area, there is sufficient low-level shear for some updraft rotation. This may foster occasional line-embedded circulations and a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be less steep with eastward extent across GA into the Carolinas. Still, filtered diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass should foster at least weak destabilization by early afternoon. Most guidance shows re-invigoration of the convective line across the western Carolinas by midday, with a potentially separate cluster persisting eastward across GA as well. Even though MLCAPE is not forecast to be as strong as locations farther west, it should still be sufficient in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level southwesterly flow to support scattered severe/damaging winds. The tornado potential is a bit less clear, given generally veered/uni-directional low-level flow limiting hodograph curvature. Even so, some threat for a few embedded QLCS tornadoes may exist. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast... Instability is expected to weaken with northward extent ahead of the cold front across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Still, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and spread east-northeastward towards the coast through the evening. With enhanced low/mid-level flow present in association with the lead shortwave trough, some of this convection may pose a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two, before it eventually moves offshore. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 03/31/2025 Read more

WW 86 SEVERE TSTM AL FL MS CW 311105Z - 311800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 86 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama The Western Florida Panhandle Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 605 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move eastward over the next several hours. Scattered severe/damaging winds with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph should be the main threat, although a tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Evergreen AL to 30 miles southeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 83...WW 84...WW 85... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 0322 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...southeast MS into southern AL and the western FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 311025Z - 311200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A consolidating line of convection with a few embedded bowing segments will continue to shift east across southern MS and southeast LA. This activity is expected to the move across portions of southern AL into the western FL Panhandle this morning into midday, maintained by favorable vertical shear and moderate instability. Recent radar trends have shown periodic intense bows with line-embedded cells, posing a risk for damaging gusts. This trend should continue with eastward extent into the MCD area. Storm mode may limit hail potential, though isolated hail to around 1 inch diameter is possible. Regional VWP data shows modest 0-1 km shear, and given some boundary-layer inhibition and poor low-level lapse rates, tornado potential while non-zero, is expected to remain low. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so as the line of convection to the west approaches the eastern bounds of WW 83 and WW 84. ..Leitman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30948984 32178811 32098700 31768645 30908642 30098694 29818843 29888928 30458974 30948984 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85... FOR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...northeast MS into north-central AL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85... Valid 311104Z - 311230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will spread east into portions of northern/north-central AL this morning. DISCUSSION...A QLCS/bowing line of convection near the northeast MS state line will continue to shift east into portions of northern/north-central AL this morning. Radar trends from KGWX showed a few mesovortices/areas of rotation as this line approached the radar. This indicates potential for locally enhanced damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Regional VWP data shows modestly enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km shear around 25-35 kt on the nose of an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. This may be sufficient for a brief tornado, though the predominant risk is expected to remain damaging gusts as the line of convection continues east through the morning hours. ..Leitman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34308872 34368844 34228729 33998665 33718651 33388664 33178712 33088750 33088831 33118873 33198931 33698900 34308872 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0324 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...84... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHEAST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Areas affected...central/southern MS into southeast LA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83...84... Valid 311116Z - 311245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83, 84 continues. SUMMARY...A line of convection will continue shifting east/southeast across central/southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana this morning, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...A robust line of convection, with embedded bowing elements, will continue to shift east/southeast across the MCD area this morning. A recent gust of at least 65 mph was noted at KJAN with the northern bowing segment. A couple of intense bowing segments have occasionally been noted across parts of south-central LA. This activity is expected to continue producing severe/damaging gusts with eastward extent through the morning given favorable downstream instability and an increasing 850 mb southwesterly low-level jet. Regional VWP data do indicated some modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. However, 0-1 km shear is fairly weak, around 15-25 kt amid poor low-level lapse rates. This should temper the tornado risk, though a brief spin-up could occur given the very moist boundary layer and at least modest low-level instability. ..Leitman.. 03/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 32658950 32408861 31588825 30948834 30178872 29688957 29599086 29659207 29739249 29929270 30119277 30309262 30839183 31689072 32658950 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0086 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-131-311240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-311240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA MSC039-041-111-131-153-311240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE PERRY STONE WAYNE Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW CBM TO 25 S MSL TO 10 N HSV TO 35 NE HSV. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-011-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-043-047-049-051- 055-057-063-065-071-073-075-079-081-085-087-089-091-093-095-101- 103-105-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-133-311240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAWRENCE LEE LOWNDES MACON MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON GAC047-055-083-295-311240- Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE LFT TO 45 SW MCB TO 20 NNW MCB. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-093-095-103- 105-109-117-121-311240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-311240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER PIKE WALTHALL Read more

WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW LCH TO 30 NNE LFT TO 35 NW PIB TO 60 SSE GWO TO 20 SE GWO TO 20 W CBM TO 20 N CBM. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-053-055-099-101-113-311240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION MSC007-019-023-025-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085- 087-091-099-101-103-105-123-129-159-311240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA SCOTT SMITH WINSTON Read more

WW 0083 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNW LCH TO 30 NNE LFT TO 35 NW PIB TO 60 SSE GWO TO 20 SE GWO TO 20 W CBM TO 20 N CBM. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 83 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-053-055-099-101-113-311240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION MSC007-019-023-025-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085- 087-091-099-101-103-105-123-129-159-311240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA SCOTT SMITH WINSTON Read more

WW 83 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS TX 310635Z - 311300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 83 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southern Arkansas Louisiana Central Mississippi Far East Texas * Effective this Monday morning from 135 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeastward over the next several hours early this morning, while posing a threat for scattered damaging winds up to 60-70 mph and large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter. A tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south of Columbus MS to 75 miles west of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79...WW 80...WW 81...WW 82... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0082 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CHA TO 35 WSW TYS TO 5 WNW TYS TO 30 E TYS. ..LEITMAN..03/31/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 82 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-011-065-105-107-115-121-123-139-153-311040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT BRADLEY HAMILTON LOUDON MCMINN MARION MEIGS MONROE POLK SEQUATCHIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active and progressive mid-level flow will persist across the CONUS as a large upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Several additional troughs, embedded within strong west/southwesterly flow aloft, will move over the lower 48 through the next week. Deep moisture and strong mid-level flow overlapping will favor severe potential across the southern Plains, Mid MS/OH Valleys and the Eastern CONUS through the extended forecast period. ...D4/Thursday... As the primary upper trough departs to the northeast, the cold front will stall across the OH/MS Valleys and into the southern Plains. A secondary trough embedded within the southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern Rockies and lift over the southern/central Plains. A surface low, with trailing dryline and the stationary front, will focus convective development through the afternoon and evening. The broad warm sector, ample moisture, and steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability, overlapping with robust deep-layer shear. Severe thunderstorms appear likely from Northeast TX, through AR/LA and into the Mid MS/OH Valleys. Additionally, some severe risk may develop over parts of the Mid Atlantic as the cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Relatively strong flow aloft may overlap with an increasingly moist airmass, supporting some potential for storms with a wind/hail risk. However, weak shortwave ridging, and multiple preceding days of thunderstorm potential casts considerable uncertainty on the potential for storms and the positioning of the front/quality of the low-level airmass. ...D5/Friday... The upper-level pattern begins to change D5/Friday as an upper low is forecast to emerge across parts of the Southern Plains and northern Mexico. Deep meridional flow will overspread parts of TX, OK and AR while the front begins to sag south across the MS and OH Valleys. Some supercell risk may develop across the Red River vicinity and across the mid MS Valley near the stalled front. However, the surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...D6/Saturday and beyond... Confidence in the upper-level evolution diminishes D6/Saturday and through the weekend, as the projected upper low begins moving eastward. Increasing high pressure over the northern US may begin to suppress the northward extent of the deeper surface moisture. While some severe risk may exist given relatively strong mid-level flow near the stalled front from the ArkLaTex eastward into the Southeast, model solutions vary greatly on the affected area and associated hazards. Confidence is too low to initiate severe probabilities. Read more