SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...Discussion... Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic, and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of the Rockies. It appears that a significant mid-level trough and embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday. The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late Saturday through Saturday night. Based on the various guidance, it is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central Texas. However, this probably will be short-lived, with cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states. ...South Central U.S... The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast vicinity. Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. It remains unclear how far inland of upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail. Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle. With storms rooted in the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker side. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms appear possible across parts of east central Arizona into adjacent portions of western New Mexico on Friday, and across parts of central Texas late Friday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluded cyclone will be in the process of weakening across central Quebec, with secondary surface cyclogenesis underway near the Canadian Maritimes by early Friday. The new cyclone center is then generally forecast to migrate northward toward Newfoundland and Labrador through 12Z Saturday. In its wake, it appears that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. Upstream, as a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level low turn eastward toward the southern Rockies, within an amplified belt of westerlies emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, broad downstream ridging is forecast to be maintained across the subtropical into southern mid-latitudes, with mid-level flow becoming increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains. A lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Intermountain West is likely to become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into and through the confluent regime, accompanied by a weakening surface low transitioning to a frontal wave across the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Models indicate that the trailing cold front may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night, with a new wave possibly developing along it across parts of central Texas toward the end of the period. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward adjacent coastal areas. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Arizona into New Mexico... A generally cold boundary layer with limited moisture still seems likely to minimize the potential for thunderstorm development beneath the mid-level cold pool overspreading the Great Basin into Four Corners states Friday through Friday night. However, the latest RAP Refresh and High Resolution Ensemble output suggests that thermodynamic profiles might become marginally conducive to convection capable of producing lightning by late Friday night, near/north of the east central Arizona Mogollon Rim vicinity into parts of the Colorado Plateau. ...Central into northeast Texas... Low-level moistening and forcing for ascent along the frontal zone downstream of the developing wave will contribute to weak elevated destabilization by late Friday night. Erosion of mid-level inhibition may become sufficient to support the initiation of scattered thunderstorms, either shortly before or not long after 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of southern and central California into the Intermountain West and central Rockies. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the Northeast today, as a ridge moves through the Great Plains. Out west, a low will move across the Intermountain West. Mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent associated with the western U.S. system will make conditions favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, instability will remain very weak across the western U.S. and no severe threat is expected to develop today. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located in the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from far eastern North Carolina northward into eastern Virginia, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of this moist corridor ahead of the front near a surface trough. This area is also close to a mid-level jet with wind speeds around 100 knots. Near this jet streak, deep-layer shear is strong and large-scale ascent is focused. This environment along with some instability will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located in the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from far eastern North Carolina northward into eastern Virginia, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of this moist corridor ahead of the front near a surface trough. This area is also close to a mid-level jet with wind speeds around 100 knots. Near this jet streak, deep-layer shear is strong and large-scale ascent is focused. This environment along with some instability will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 03/06/2025 Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN TO 30 N ORF. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC053-055-095-139-177-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRITUCK DARE HYDE PASQUOTANK TYRRELL VAC710-810-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE NORFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231-ANZ632-633-634-656-658- 052340- Read more

WW 28 TORNADO NC VA CW 051725Z - 060100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 28 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A convective line continues to move eastward into more of central/eastern NC and southeast VA. Increasing low-level moisture coupled with strong vertical shear will support the potential for strong wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon and into this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Norfolk VA to 20 miles south southwest of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 26...WW 27... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0153 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 28... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 28... Valid 052130Z - 052300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat will continue through early evening. DISCUSSION...A squall line has started to lose its definition somewhat across eastern North Carolina as leading stratiform precipitation has started to stabilize an already weakly unstable boundary layer. While the line is not as intense as it was earlier this afternoon, a threat for damaging wind gusts remains possible to the Atlantic coast given the strength of the low-level wind field across the region (75 knots at 1km on MHX VWP). Several strong supercells with strong low-level circulation were observed from the KLTX WSR-88D off the North Carolina coast over the past 1 to 2 hours. However, as these storms approached the coast, they weakened, suggesting a more hostile low-level instability present across land areas. By 2330Z the threat will likely have ended across tornado watch 28 as the squall line should be in the western Atlantic by that time. ..Bentley.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... LAT...LON 34477664 34497698 34587714 34747713 34937712 35907708 36607700 37287687 37377610 37177585 36607575 35807545 35557534 35267551 35167559 35027591 34697630 34477664 Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ORF TO 40 S NHK TO 30 NNW SBY. ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC039-045-047-052240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-073-115-131-052240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER MATHEWS NORTHAMPTON ANZ543-630-631-636-650-652-654-052240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND Read more

WW 27 SEVERE TSTM MD VA CW 051525Z - 052300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maryland Eastern/Southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1025 AM until 600 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A convective line is expected to continue eastward/northeastward into more of eastern/southeastern VA and southern MD over the next several hours. Strong wind fields across the region will support the potential for damaging gusts within this line. A low probability for a brief tornado or two also exists. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west southwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 26... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more