MD 0135 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 21... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...southern Mississippi and southern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 21... Valid 042014Z - 042145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest tornado threat this afternoon will be across southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. DISCUSSION...The warm sector is slowly expanding eastward across southern Mississippi with upper 60s dewpoints now across southern Louisiana. Thunderstorms development continues along and slightly ahead of a cold front extending from near the ArkLaMiss to the central Louisiana Gulf Coast. A few embedded supercells have produced transient circulations and some severe wind gusts, but a strong, mature supercell has yet to form. This remains a possibility this afternoon as convection continues to develop and slowly deepen across southern Louisiana and Mississippi. The supercell tornado threat this afternoon will increase if a large enough area of greater instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) can develop. However, this is seemingly less likely as eastward warm sector expansion remains slow with expansive cloud cover. Nonetheless, even without mature supercells, a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat will continue through the afternoon and into the evening with very strong low-level flow (70 knots at 1.5 km per JAN 19Z RAOB). ..Bentley.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29619317 30849219 32139099 32328998 32328908 31728847 30368833 30008902 29488928 29208963 29009006 28989055 29169128 29469208 29619317 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW HEZ TO 50 S GLH TO 25 NE GLH. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-009-025-029-033-037-045-047-051-055-057-063-065-071- 075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-117-121- 125-042140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON MADISON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043- 045-047-049-051-053-055-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079- 083-085-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-111-113-121-123-125- 127-129-131-133-147-149-153-155-157-159-163-042140- Read more

WW 21 TORNADO LA MS CW 041820Z - 050100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 21 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and Southeastern Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to push eastward towards eastern/southern LA along a progressive cold front. The environment ahead of this front across eastern/southern LA and into much of central and southern MS will become increasingly favorable for continued severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. Tornadoes are the primary severe hazard, with a few strong (i.e. EF2+) tornadoes possible. Strong to potentially significant (i.e. over 74 mph) wind gusts are possible within this line as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Greenwood MS to 35 miles south southeast of Houma LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 20... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LCH TO 20 S ESF. WW 20 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 042100Z. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-023-039-053-113-042100- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE LCH TO 20 S ESF. WW 20 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 042100Z. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-023-039-053-113-042100- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA CAMERON EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...20z Update... In general, the ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. An organized squall line continues to push east across the lower MS River Valley. Regional radar imagery shows discrete/semi-discrete cells developing ahead of the line across southeast LA into southwest MS. The greatest wind/tornado threat is expected to remain across this region and spread into southern MS/AL through late afternoon/evening as higher-quality moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the 60s) spreads east in tandem with the axis of stronger (40-50 knot) 925-850 mb flow. 5% wind/hail probabilities were expanded slightly across parts of northern OK/southern KS where very cold temperatures aloft coupled with surface temperatures climbing into the low 60s along/behind a weak surface warm front. Isolated to scattered convection is gradually developing within this zone per recent satellite imagery, and may mature sufficiently to pose an isolated hail/wind risk across the region. 2% tornado probabilities were maintained along the warm frontal boundary where low-level vorticity/CAPE may be adequate for a brief/weak tornado. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western CONUS on Thursday. Moisture associated with this system will remain limited, but cold temperatures aloft may support weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes from parts of central CA into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies. Farther east, a surface cyclone will deepen during the day across the south-central High Plains, with low-level moisture return expected to commence during the evening near the Texas coast. However, instability and large-scale ascent are expected to remain too weak for deep convection within this early moisture-return regime through the end of the period. Dry/stable conditions in the wake of a cold frontal passage will preclude thunderstorm development across the eastern CONUS. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The forecast remains unchanged for Wednesday. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the Plains states as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic and a second upper trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). As such, relatively more quiescent wildfire-spread conditions are likely across the southern Plains compared to previous days. Broad northwesterly mid-level flow may transport downward via a mixed boundary-layer mixing across the southern Plains. However, marginal RH and the recent occurrence of appreciable rainfall accumulations precludes Elevated highlights at this time. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions will also return to eastern New Mexico ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper trough. However, surface winds appear too weak on a widespread basis to justify the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0133 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota into far southwestern Minnesota and far northern Nebraska Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 041625Z - 042030Z SUMMARY...Localized moderate to heavy snowfall rates on the order of 1-2 inches/hour will be possible as snow bands develop across eastern South Dakota into far western Minnesota and far northern Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Transient snow banding has been observed across eastern SD into northern NE over the past couple of hours with surface observations and web cams under these bands showing localized areas of visibility reductions down to 1/4 to 1/2 mile. These bands are largely being driven by focused ascent within a 700 mb deformation zone augmented by modest warm advection/frontogenesis through the 850-700 mb layer. Additionally, steep lapse rates within this zone are supporting localized areas of convectively-augmented precipitation rates (as evidenced by recent lightning strikes over the SD/NE/IA border). This deformation zone will continue to be a preferential area of transient precipitation band development through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Areas to the north/northwest of the surface freezing line may experience periods of moderate to heavy snowfall rates (1-2 inches/hour) as transient snow bands emerge. Given surface gradient winds sustained at 20-25 mph (gusting to 30-40 mph at times), localized areas of whiteout conditions (visibility below 1/4 mile) appear possible under more organized bands. ..Moore.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44529661 43949746 43539787 43049832 42509879 42229916 42159944 42129978 42260007 42520015 42810014 44979804 45249776 45479742 45689693 45789655 45809614 45739572 45589560 45419567 45309580 45109603 44929625 44529661 Read more

MD 0134 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0134 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Mississippi and eastern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041749Z - 041945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Low to mid 60s dewpoints have started to surge inland across southeast Louisiana over the past 2 hours. Sustained 15 to 25 knot southeasterly flow ahead of the squall line should lead to rapid northward destabilization across Mississippi during the next few hours. This squall line is currently producing severe wind gusts with a 61 knot wind gust at KPOE at 1727 UTC. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected south of I-20 in Mississippi which should correspond to the area of greatest instability and tornado threat this afternoon. North of I-20, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints should result in sufficient instability for a severe wind threat and perhaps some line-embedded tornadoes given the magnitude of the low-level shear. Across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, where better low-level moisture will be present and some heating may result in greater instability, discrete supercells may be possible. This is a scenario supported by the HRRR consistently. Even if mature supercells do not develop ahead of the main squall line, the weaker forced southern end of the squall line will likely result in a less defined line with embedded supercells. Any supercells which develop, ahead of or within the line, will pose a threat for strong tornadoes given RAP forecast STP values around 3 to 4 this afternoon and evening. Additionally, the strong kinematic environment will support QLCS tornadoes within the better defined squall line. A tornado watch will be issued soon to address the threat from the squall line and any supercells which may develop ahead of the line. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31289232 33699111 33919009 33978909 33848823 32958830 31908848 30528874 30038911 29838916 29488920 29248889 29028893 28868923 29018961 29069005 29039055 29109116 29259160 29509201 29709214 30429234 31289232 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into southwestern Quebec. While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL... A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2) will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained. Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before convection moves offshore. ...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic... Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this region, especially during the afternoon and early evening. ..Dean.. 03/04/2025 Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW BPT TO 20 WNW POE TO 20 E ELD TO 15 SSW LIT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0132 ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-017-025-041-043-069-079-139-041840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT CLEVELAND DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LINCOLN UNION LAC001-003-011-019-021-023-039-043-049-053-059-061-067-069-073- 079-083-111-113-115-123-127-041840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE LINCOLN MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RICHLAND UNION Read more

WW 20 TORNADO AR LA TX 041415Z - 042100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 20 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Western and Northern Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 300 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken squall line will continue east into the Watch area this morning. A destabilizing airmass near and immediately ahead of this strong to severe thunderstorm activity will aid in a severe risk continuing eastward through the early afternoon. Scattered severe gusts and a risk for tornadoes will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Pine Bluff AR to 60 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18...WW 19... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25045. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS...THE BIG BEND...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS...A PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY...AND SOUTH TEXAS... ...Update... The latest trends in observations show a cold front advancing southward into the Permian Basin of TX and southeastern NM. Just ahead of it, windy westerly downslope sustained winds near 30-40 kt with gusts as high as 50-55 kt are occurring. Relative humidity will continue to fall fairly quickly ahead of the front, but cooler temperatures behind it should limit the duration of critical RH later this afternoon. Considering the widespread rainfall that occurred last night/early this morning, and higher RH anticipated for a portion of the region behind the front, the Extreme area has been trimmed from most of the Hill Country. The extreme fire spread conditions will likely be more confined to the Rio Grande River Valley, a portion of southeastern NM, and the western Permian Basin/Upper Trans-Pecos. The elevated area was also trimmed for the same reason. The Elevated area of the Central Appalachians has not been modified, as the forecast remains valid there. Please see the forecast discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 03/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes while deepening today. The net result will be intense isallobaric flow, transporting a dry low-level airmass across portions of the southern High Plains into southern Texas. The combination of very strong winds/low RH overspreading critically dry fuels across western into southern Texas will promote extreme wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, a plume of low-level dry air will advect northward across portions of the central Appalachians as the surface low approaches. The accompanying dry and breezy conditions atop dry duels over the central Appalachians will promote some potential for wildfire spread in this region as well. ...Southern High Plains into southern Texas... Though the surface low will drift away from the southern Plains through the period, the gradual intensification of the low will slow the weakening of the surface wind field. Furthermore, daytime boundary-layer mixing will encourage some downward momentum of stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of western into southern Texas will see multiple hours of sustained west-northwesterly surface winds well over 30 mph coincide with very low RH (i.e. 10-15 percent over several locales). Such conditions, particularly over the Edwards Plateau into the Central Texas Hill Country and South Texas Brush Country, are anomalously favorable for very rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior. Given the very dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have been maintained for this region. Furthermore, Extremely Critical highlights have been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico into the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin regions in southwestern TX. An 850 mb speed maxima pivoting around the backside of the mid-level trough will overspread the mixed boundary layer, with downward momentum transport fostering 30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH. A complicating factor to this outlook is the development and progression of ongoing strong thunderstorms across portions of western into northern Texas. Additional storms may produce an abundance of rainfall in some locations, dampening fuels sufficiently to reduce wildfire-spread potential to some degree. As such, considerable modifications to the ongoing fire weather highlights may be needed for the Day 1 Outlook Update. ...Central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, Rh will drop to around 30-35 percent in spots as sustained southerly winds increase to around 15 mph. During the mid-afternoon time frame, some moistening of the surface airmass will occur as surface wind speeds increase, so the window of opportunity for favorable wildfire-spread conditions is not expected to be particularly long-lived. Nonetheless, these aforementioned conditions should overspread fuels that are quite dry, warranting the continuance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FSM TO 5 SSE FYV TO 5 NNW HRO TO 20 NW FLP. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more