SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 1 22:29:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 1 22:29:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Kansas into the Edwards Plateau late Monday night. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will be present across the southern Plains in advance of a eastward moving and intensifying upper-level trough. The trough, initially within the Great Basin, will eject into the central/southern Plains late Monday into Tuesday morning. A closed upper low will develop into the central High Plains with a strong mid-level jet stretching into central Texas, curving westward into the Trans-Pecos. Strong low-level wind fields will develop late Monday afternoon and through the evening/overnight. At least low 60s F dewpoints are forecast to reach into parts of central/eastern Oklahoma as this occurs. ...Southeast Kansas into southern Plains... Storm development is most likely to occur mid/late Monday night. Model guidance still shows some variability in the westward/northward progress of greater low-level moisture. Severe probabilities have been adjusted westward to account for trends in the ECMWF showing storm initiation west of the I-35 corridor. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be largely parallel to the surface trough/front. That said, confidence is reasonably high in a linear storm mode. The primary uncertainties will be the exact degree of surface based destabilization and where storms will initiate/become severe. Forecast soundings do show potential for near-surface to surface based storms, however. Strong low-level shear will certainly be conditionally favorable for damaging winds and embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. At present time the most conditionally favorable environment will exist somewhere from central/eastern Oklahoma into parts of North Texas. Into southeast Kansas, uncertainty in destabilization becomes greater. However, some severe risk may develop ahead of the surface low in south-central Kansas. Farther south, into the Edwards Plateau, initiation along the Pacific front becomes less certain given some warmer air aloft. Given at least a weak signal in the ECMWF for thunderstorms, probabilities have been adjusted southwestward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Critical/Elevated outlook areas. Primary uncertainty remains how far east the dryline will mix during the late afternoon across portions western Texas. Based on the latest high-resolution ensemble model guidance, the Critical fire weather area was expanded a bit farther east across portions of the South Plains and the Permian Basin in Texas. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions (and locally higher end critical conditions) are expected tomorrow afternoon with sustained surface winds in excess of 25 mph and minimum RH near 10% overlapping critically receptive fuels. Locally elevated fire weather concerns are also possible to the east of the dryline tomorrow afternoon across portions of eastern Oklahoma and north Texas, as gusty southeast winds promote dry return flow amidst at least marginally receptive fuels. Please see the discussion below for additional information on the fire weather forecast for tomorrow (Sunday). ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday), supporting the eastward development of a surface cyclone along the southern High Plains. For tomorrow/Sunday afternoon, a dryline will rapidly mix eastward from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas, with RH dipping to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds peak within the 25-30 mph range behind the dryline. With the continued drying of fuels across the southern High Plains, conditions will support rapid wildfire spread, with Critical highlights introduced where favorable surface winds/RH will overlap for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains largely on-track with only minor adjustments needed to the Critical/Elevated outlook areas. Primary uncertainty remains how far east the dryline will mix during the late afternoon across portions western Texas. Based on the latest high-resolution ensemble model guidance, the Critical fire weather area was expanded a bit farther east across portions of the South Plains and the Permian Basin in Texas. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions (and locally higher end critical conditions) are expected tomorrow afternoon with sustained surface winds in excess of 25 mph and minimum RH near 10% overlapping critically receptive fuels. Locally elevated fire weather concerns are also possible to the east of the dryline tomorrow afternoon across portions of eastern Oklahoma and north Texas, as gusty southeast winds promote dry return flow amidst at least marginally receptive fuels. Please see the discussion below for additional information on the fire weather forecast for tomorrow (Sunday). ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A compact mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains from the southern Rockies tomorrow (Sunday), supporting the eastward development of a surface cyclone along the southern High Plains. For tomorrow/Sunday afternoon, a dryline will rapidly mix eastward from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas, with RH dipping to 10 percent as sustained westerly surface winds peak within the 25-30 mph range behind the dryline. With the continued drying of fuels across the southern High Plains, conditions will support rapid wildfire spread, with Critical highlights introduced where favorable surface winds/RH will overlap for several hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon. ...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity... With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more