SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...East Texas to Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest Saturday morning will shift east toward the southeast Plains/Sabine Valley vicinity by Sunday morning. Fast southwesterly mid/upper flow will already be in place from the southern Plains to the Southeast, though a stronger jet streak will impinge on the Lower MS Valley late in the period as stronger height falls spread east ahead of the approaching upper trough. At the surface, a weak low over north-central TX will develop east near/just south of the I-20 corridor into southern AL through Sunday morning. A warm front will extend west to east along this corridor, and southerly low-level flow will support mid 60s F dewpoints south of this boundary. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing within the first couple hours of the forecast period Saturday morning across TX. Additional convection also is likely along the warm front near the central Gulf coast from LA to southern AL. Most convection is forecast to be elevated in this persistent warm advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support elevated instability, with forecast soundings indicating MUCAPE to 1500 J/kg possible. Furthermore, forecast hodographs are elongated/straight above 2-3 km amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized cells capable of isolated large hail. If any storms can become surface-based near the warm front, some tornado potential will exist given vertically veering wind profiles/modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The severe weather potential is expected to remain low. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move across the Desert Southwest today, as a jet streak moves southward through the western part of the system over the far eastern Pacific. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in parts of Arizona and north-central New Mexico. Isolated storms could also develop in far southern Colorado and in the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Tonight, the mid-level low will move into western New Mexico, as the associated jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system into northern Mexico. Ahead of the jet, moisture will return northward into the southern Plains. As instability increases near the moist axis overnight, thunderstorm development will be likely across parts of north-central Texas and far southern Oklahoma. Forecast soundings toward the end of the period in north-central Texas suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates will approach 8 C/km, with MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 50 knots. This could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is expected to be low. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening from parts of central California eastward into the central High Plains. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... The latest water vapor imagery has a pronounced dry slot extending from the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. A mid-level low is located over northern Utah with an associated trough extending southwestward into California. Mid-level moisture is evident across much of the western U.S. from the Four Corners northward into the northern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening near the low and the associated trough. Additional isolated storms could develop to the east of the low near a subtle shortwave trough moving into the central High Plains. Instability across the western U.S. is very weak which should keep any storm that develops below severe limits. ..Broyles.. 03/07/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 6 22:23:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 6 22:23:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more