SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 7 22:03:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 7 22:03:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The only adjustment to the ongoing Marginal risk area was a slight longitudinal expansion to better encompass the range of possible solutions depicted by recent HRRR/RAP runs as well as experimental 12z MPAS runs. These solutions continue to show the best convective environment and QPF signal along the I-20 corridor to the west of the DFW metro area, but the envelope of solutions suggests that initial convective initiation may include portions of the DFW area/I-35 corridor. Regardless, the overall expectation of a relatively short-duration, localized severe hail threat early Saturday morning remains valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... The Day 2/Saturday fire-weather forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical area based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. A warm front will be in place across the central Gulf Coast vicinity into far southern Georgia. A weak frontal wave cyclone will undergo some deepening as it tracks east. ...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia/North Florida... Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and along portions of the warm front. Some western shift in the surface low in recent guidance has been noted and low severe probabilities have been shifted westward to account for spatial uncertainty at the start of the period. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be parallel to the boundary. The degree of destabilization that will occur is also a question given the early activity expected. The overall expectation is for somewhat disorganized convection to occur along and north of the boundary with perhaps occasional intensification possible given the strong shear. South of the boundary, there will be greater potential for surface-based storms. Should enough destabilization occur, stronger clusters/isolated supercells would be possible. Low-level shear near the boundary could promote potential for a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... The Elevated area was trimmed in the TX South Plains and TX Panhandle, where recent rainfall and marginal wind/RH should limit fire-weather concerns today. Farther northeast, an Elevated area was added for portions of western OK into western north TX. Here, the latest surface observations already show 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid upper teens to lower 20s RH. Given a lack of appreciable rainfall here over the last several days, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for severe weather is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity. Models show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight. In the low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley. A trailing cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards Plateau tonight. Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around 850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period. Forecast soundings over western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C) and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. The majority of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g., 00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity. The strong effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently expected to be low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ..Halbert.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more