SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier/Flournoy.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the southern CA coast, with another cyclone off the Carolina coast over the western Atlantic. Modest upper ridging is in place over much of the central and eastern CONUS between these two features. The southern CA upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, devolving into an open wave as it becomes increasingly more progressive. By early Wednesday, this system is expected to be near the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection with enhanced mid-level flow stretching through its base from the northern Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico into Far West TX. Increasing mid-level moisture will accompany this wave as it moves eastward, combining with cold temperatures aloft to support modest buoyancy from southern CA into central and southern AZ. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is possible as the large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this buoyancy. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin across southern CA this afternoon, spreading eastward over AZ throughout the evening and overnight. Highest coverage is expected over west-central AZ. Modest buoyancy and weak vertical shear should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. ..Mosier/Flournoy.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... A potent mid to upper-level low west of southern CA will move east and evolve into an open trough and reach the AZ-NM/Sonora-Chihuahua border vicinity by early Wednesday morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers associated with the cold core will spread east during the day from southern CA into the lower CO Valley and southwest AZ, and later into the Sonoran Desert/Mogollon Rim tonight. Deeper convection near and east of the mid-level cold pocket will probably result in occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for thunderstorm activity will prevail. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today into tonight. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... A potent mid to upper-level low west of southern CA will move east and evolve into an open trough and reach the AZ-NM/Sonora-Chihuahua border vicinity by early Wednesday morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers associated with the cold core will spread east during the day from southern CA into the lower CO Valley and southwest AZ, and later into the Sonoran Desert/Mogollon Rim tonight. Deeper convection near and east of the mid-level cold pocket will probably result in occasional lightning flashes. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for thunderstorm activity will prevail. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/11/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Fri-Sun - Mid/Lower MS Valley to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic... An intense spring storm system will deliver a multi-day severe weather episode to portions of the central and eastern U.S. beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. All severe thunderstorm hazards are expected, including widespread damaging winds, tornadoes (some strong), and large hail. On Friday, an anomalously intense upper cyclone is forecast to deepen as it tracks northeast across the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. An intense jet streak (greater than 100 kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon into the overnight hours. Likewise, a low-level jet will intensify Friday night to 65+ kt. As intense surface cyclogenesis occurs, southerly low-level flow will transport modest moisture as far north as eastern IA, southeast MN and southern WI. Deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain focused southward from the Mid-South toward the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast. Nevertheless, strongly forced convection within intense deep-layer flow will pose a widespread risk for severe (potentially significant severe) thunderstorm winds and tornadoes from late afternoon into the overnight hours across a large area centered on the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity. On Saturday, the upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario, but a larger-scale upper trough will remain over the Plains. The Plains trough will intensify and spread east toward the MS/OH Valleys. This will maintain the eastward progression of a strongly forced line of convection from the Ohio Valley south/southwest into the Deep South/central Gulf coast vicinity through Saturday night. Portions of the Deep South into GA may see multiple rounds of severe convection with a mix of both supercell and QLCS storm modes potentially moving across the region, posing a concern for damaging tornadoes and swaths of severe winds. On Sunday, the system will continue to shift east, with a moist airmass and strong deep-layer flow continuing to support a line of convection producing damaging winds into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Outlook areas will continue to be refined over the coming days as key features become better resolved. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Fri-Sun - Mid/Lower MS Valley to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic... An intense spring storm system will deliver a multi-day severe weather episode to portions of the central and eastern U.S. beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. All severe thunderstorm hazards are expected, including widespread damaging winds, tornadoes (some strong), and large hail. On Friday, an anomalously intense upper cyclone is forecast to deepen as it tracks northeast across the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. An intense jet streak (greater than 100 kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley during the afternoon into the overnight hours. Likewise, a low-level jet will intensify Friday night to 65+ kt. As intense surface cyclogenesis occurs, southerly low-level flow will transport modest moisture as far north as eastern IA, southeast MN and southern WI. Deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain focused southward from the Mid-South toward the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast. Nevertheless, strongly forced convection within intense deep-layer flow will pose a widespread risk for severe (potentially significant severe) thunderstorm winds and tornadoes from late afternoon into the overnight hours across a large area centered on the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity. On Saturday, the upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario, but a larger-scale upper trough will remain over the Plains. The Plains trough will intensify and spread east toward the MS/OH Valleys. This will maintain the eastward progression of a strongly forced line of convection from the Ohio Valley south/southwest into the Deep South/central Gulf coast vicinity through Saturday night. Portions of the Deep South into GA may see multiple rounds of severe convection with a mix of both supercell and QLCS storm modes potentially moving across the region, posing a concern for damaging tornadoes and swaths of severe winds. On Sunday, the system will continue to shift east, with a moist airmass and strong deep-layer flow continuing to support a line of convection producing damaging winds into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Outlook areas will continue to be refined over the coming days as key features become better resolved. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama on Thursday. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast through Thursday evening before moving offshore over the Atlantic during the nighttime hours. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with a 55-65 kt jet streak within the base of the trough will mostly remain over the Gulf. However, modest vertical shear with effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is forecast. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs are present in forecast soundings across portions of MS/AL. Boundary layer moisture will be modest (upper 50s to low 60s F), but cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Overall, this environment may support isolated strong to severe storms, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds being the main potential hazards through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of eastern Mississippi into Alabama on Thursday. ...Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast through Thursday evening before moving offshore over the Atlantic during the nighttime hours. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with a 55-65 kt jet streak within the base of the trough will mostly remain over the Gulf. However, modest vertical shear with effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt is forecast. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs are present in forecast soundings across portions of MS/AL. Boundary layer moisture will be modest (upper 50s to low 60s F), but cold temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates and contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Overall, this environment may support isolated strong to severe storms, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds being the main potential hazards through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains and traverse the state of Texas tomorrow (Wednesday), supporting strong surface low development and the eastward surging of a dryline during the afternoon. Behind the dryline, very dry and windy conditions will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, the dryline is poised to approach the I-35 corridor, with sustained westerly surface winds over 25 mph amid 10-15 percent RH becoming common in the post dryline environment, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas. Several guidance members are also depicting brief bouts of Extremely Critical conditions across portions of western and central Texas, though these conditions do not appear widespread enough for Extremely Critical highlights at this time. Nonetheless, the aforementioned winds and RH will be overlapping dry fuels, some of which have yet to experience appreciable rainfall, so high-end Critical fire weather conditions are expected for much of western into central Texas. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS... An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values to around 1500 J/kg. Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday night. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As an upper low just off the East Coast this morning progresses across the western Atlantic, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected across a substantial portion of the country. An exception will be across the southwestern states, as a second low shifts inland over southern California and northern Baja, and gradually progresses into Arizona/northwestern Mexico. As this system advances, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, showers and occasional/embedded lightning will spread inland, affecting southern California through the day, and across the Colorado Valley into Arizona overnight. Weak buoyancy should preclude any appreciable severe risk. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 10 21:49:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 10 21:49:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains... A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. ...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains... In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical conditions can be expected. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains... On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday). ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains... A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. ...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains... In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical conditions can be expected. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains... On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday). ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more