SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe threat appears minimal the rest of tonight, thus general thunderstorms are the primary risk. ...01z Update... Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough along the GA/SC border, shifting east-southeast in line with earlier model guidance. Primary corridor of large-scale ascent is spreading quickly offshore away from the modest instability that currently resides across the central Gulf States region. While a brief gust or two may be noted with lagging convection early this evening, severe threat appears too meager to maintain severe probabilities. Upstream, an intense 500mb jet max is digging southeast across the northern Baja Peninsula. This feature will translate along the international border into southern NM by the end of the period, increasing in strength to near 115kt by sunrise. Cool, steep lapse rates north of this jet favors weak convection that will spread across the southwestern U.S. into the southern Rockies late tonight. Gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, but storm-driven severe gusts are not anticipated. ..Darrow.. 03/14/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 13 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 13 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Southern Plains. ...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains... A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the Edwards Plateau. In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northeast TX Panhandle. ...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains... Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains... Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND SOUTHWEST IOWA... ---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains--- Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of 35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas, particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level jet streak. Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by Friday evening. Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to 0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms, particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions. Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions. Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes, sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions, the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present on the landscape supports and Elevated area. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... ---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday)--- A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon, supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for several hours Friday afternoon. ...Southern Plains... By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical highlights have been introduced. Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama, into southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the MRGL risk area over parts of the Southeast, mainly to trim the western extent. Mid-level subsidence behind the weakening vort max over parts of MS/TN will tend to limit thunderstorm potential to the west through the remainder of the afternoon. To the east, increasing low-level moisture and steep lapse rates will support isolated thunderstorms with a risk for hail and sporadic damaging gusts. Elsewhere, strong mid-level height falls are expected over the western US as a powerful upper trough approaches. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible within warm air advection over the Upper Midwest ahead of shallow returning surface moisture. To the west, cool mid-level temperatures overspreading meager low-level moisture will also support isolated thunderstorm chances over a broad area from the Desert Southwest to the Rockies. Somewhat stronger, low-topped convection is possible along the cold front from southern AZ into far western NM this evening and tonight. Given the strength of the wind fields aloft, a few severe gusts will be possible. Though, the very limited buoyancy should limit the severe threat. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA...MS...AND AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region. In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into the overnight. ...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes... Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional, but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN LA...MS...AND AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region. In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into the overnight. ...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes... Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional, but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST IA...EASTERN MO...IL...FAR WESTERN KY/NORTHWEST TN/NORTHEAST AR... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely over the Lower/Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys and Lower Ohio Valley late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Primary change this outlook cycle has been to mainly expand MRGL/SLGT/ENH damaging wind probabilities west to north in the Lower/Mid-MO Valley. No change to the level 4/MDT risk with greater uncertainty over the southern extent of widespread damaging wind potential into the Mid-South, but where strong tornado potential persists. ...Lower/Mid-MO, Mid-MS, and Lower OH Valleys... A powerful shortwave trough will amplify from the southern High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. This will induce further deepening of an intense surface cyclone across the central Great Plains to the Mid-MO Valley. Initial surface-based thunderstorm development is expected by early to mid-afternoon along the northwest periphery of a modified moisture plume emanating north from the South-Central States. Well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support downward momentum transport in the left-exit region of an intense 700-mb jet curling across the Ozarks to the Mid-MS Valley. This should yield a rapidly progressing QLCS from the Lower to Mid-MO Valley across much of the Mid-MS Valley into Friday evening, with semi-discrete supercells trailing to the southeast portion of the convective plume. Given the fast low to mid-level flow regime, embedded gusts from 60-80 kts should be common along with a QLCS/embedded supercell tornado threat. The latter will be greater with southeast extent where a ribbon of somewhat richer low-level moisture should reach the Mid-MS Valley. Convection should tend to weaken overnight more quickly on the north end of the outlook area as it outpaces the confined surface-based instability plume. But some overnight damaging wind/tornado potential should persist across the Lower OH Valley. ...Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys... South of the QLCS regime, forecast confidence in sustaining deep convection lowers with southern extent. Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints northward across the region by Friday evening/night. Forecast soundings indicate rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, conditionally supporting intense and long-track supercells. Neutral to weak mid-level height falls are expected, with the strong low-level jet tending to shift north/east of the Lower MS Valley overnight. This suggests forcing mechanisms will be modest, which is likely behind guidance spread with the depiction of deep convection during the evening and overnight. A few broken to semi-discrete supercells appear most probable in the Mid-South, posing a risk for strong tornadoes, significant damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. These threats appear more conditional farther south/east in the Lower MS and TN Valleys. ..Grams.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from parts of Alabama into southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and early evening. ...Southeast... A mid-level vorticity maximum over the Mid-South late this morning will become less well defined as it moves slowly eastward across the TN Valley and Southeast through the period. Stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain over southern/coastal portions of the Southeast today. But, cold mid-level temperatures (around -18 to -21 C at 500 mb per 12Z regional soundings) in conjunction with filtered daytime heating and modest low-level moistening will support weak destabilization from parts of AL into southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle. Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across these areas through the afternoon, as modest ascent with the weakening mid-level trough moves through. Most guidance suggests that greater convective coverage may occur over parts of southeast AL into southwest GA and perhaps the FL Panhandle, in closer proximity to greater low-level moisture and the mid-level jet. With modest to sufficient deep-layer shear, clusters to marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated threat for both severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon through early evening. See Mesoscale Discussion 167 for additional details on convective development and evolution through 20Z. ...Southern Arizona... A cold front will move eastward across southern AZ today, as an upper trough progresses over the Southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across this region in tandem with the front. Winds aloft will be quite strong, as an 80-100 kt mid/upper-level jet max digs southward along/near the international border. Some higher momentum flow may mix to the surface, and a gust could approach severe limits within low-topped convection. However, the weak thermodynamic profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded the Critical risk area into the Texas Big Bend. 12Z high resolution guidance and HREF probabilities suggest several hours of critical fire weather conditions across this region later this afternoon. These environmental parameters combined with ongoing drought conditions in the region should bring critical fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Expanded the Critical risk area into the Texas Big Bend. 12Z high resolution guidance and HREF probabilities suggest several hours of critical fire weather conditions across this region later this afternoon. These environmental parameters combined with ongoing drought conditions in the region should bring critical fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, no changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs, isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating, sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0167 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Areas affected...part of central and southern Alabama into southwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131617Z - 131845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is increasing likely across parts of south central Alabama into southwestern Georgia through mid to late afternoon. This may include a few intensifying storms with potential to produce marginally severe hail and, gradually, a small organizing cluster or two accompanied by strong surface gusts later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Beneath cool mid-level troughing in the 700-500 mb layer, a gradual boundary-layer moistening, and warming due to insolation and advection, are contributing to ongoing destabilization across the region. This is occurring as forecast soundings suggest that weak to modest large-scale ascent erodes a relatively warm capping layer between 850-700 mb. It appears this is supporting the deepening convective development evident in latest satellite and radar imagery, which guidance generally indicates will lead to increasing scattered thunderstorm development though 18-20Z. Beneath 35-50 kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb, deep-layer shear appears sufficient to support gradually intensifying and organizing convection, in the presence of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-750+ J/kg. This may include one or two storms exhibiting mid-level updraft rotation, with the potential to produce marginally severe hail, and perhaps a small evolving cluster or two eventually accompanied by a few strong surface gusts later this afternoon, while propagating east-southeastward. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 03/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 33108706 33018650 33038575 32868493 32058407 31238452 30818531 31308598 31628714 32548769 33108706 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms producing hail and locally damaging gusts are possible from eastern Mississippi into Alabama, western Georgia, and parts of the Florida Panhandle today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a convectively enhanced mid-level vorticity max near the AR/TN/MS border and located within a larger mid-level trough centered over the lower MS Valley. The mid-level trough will move southeast over the FL Peninsula by mid evening with the strongest accompanying belt of mid-level flow shifting into the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Farther west, a mid-level ridge will move east across the Great Plains into the MS Valley as an intensifying trough quickly moves east across southern CA to the southern High Plains during the period. A cold front will push east across the lower CO Valley and Sonoran Desert. ...Northwest Mississippi, Central/Southern Alabama, western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle... South-southwesterly low-level flow this morning is acting to advect modestly more moisture (950-925 mb layer) into the region this morning (reference 12 UTC Jackson, Birmingham, and Slidell, LA raobs). This moisture is beneath the eastern fringe of an elevated mixed layer that features steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 8.5 deg C/km per raob data). Ongoing cluster of showers/storms over northern MS will probably slowly develop southeast through midday. Ample heating to the south/southwest of northwest to southeast-oriented surface trough will contribute to MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. As the zone of ascent overspreads the destabilizing airmass across AL into GA/FL, additional storms are forecast this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storm coverage is forecast and a few of the stronger storms will potentially yield an isolated threat for severe. This activity will likely weaken by evening owing to the loss of heating and departing large-scale ascent. ...Southern Arizona... As a cold front progresses across southern Arizona, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the region. Flow aloft will be quite strong, as a 100 kt jet max digs southward across the Mexico border. It is possible some higher momentum flow may mix down to the surface at times for a gust to approach severe limits within convection. Overall, the weak thermal profile would suggest the severe threat will remain low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/13/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Eastern U.S.... A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. ...Days 6-7/Tue-Wed - OK/KS into the MS/OH/TN Valleys... Another large-scale upper trough is forecast to move across the West and into the Plains on Tuesday into early Wednesday, and then into the Midwest by Thursday. This will bring some potential for severe storms. However, a prior cold frontal intrusion deep into the Gulf and surface high pressure east of the MS River in the wake of the Day 4/Sun upper trough will limit moisture return into the southern/central Plains on Tuesday. Modest moisture return is possible further southeast on Wednesday, but forecast guidance currently is unremarkable. Trends will be monitored, but the probability for any more an isolated/marginal severe appears low at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt) will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt) will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/Deep South into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Read more