WW 42 TORNADO AL TN 150735Z - 151500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 42 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Alabama Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday morning from 235 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of severe thunderstorms will continue northeast on the eastern periphery of a moist and unstable warm sector. A few supercells will be potentially capable of a tornado risk, as well as a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail through the early morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 100 miles north of Huntsville AL to 40 miles south of Tuscaloosa AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 36...WW 37...WW 38...WW 40...WW 41... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of far eastern North Carolina, far southern Florida and along the West Coast. ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough is forecast over the southern Appalachians with a cold front located from western New England extending southward into far eastern North Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern North Carolina early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in far southern Florida, near a cold front in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Additionally, thunderstorms may form in parts of northern California and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Monday. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of far eastern North Carolina, far southern Florida and along the West Coast. ...DISCUSSION... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough is forecast over the southern Appalachians with a cold front located from western New England extending southward into far eastern North Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in eastern North Carolina early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible in far southern Florida, near a cold front in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Additionally, thunderstorms may form in parts of northern California and along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. on Monday. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

WW 0041 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0041 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MVN TO 35 S MTO TO 20 WSW HUF TO 5 SSE DNV TO 45 N DNV TO 35 ESE MMO. ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC025-033-079-101-159-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAWFORD JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-119-121-133-153-157-165-167- 171-150740- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLAY DAVIESS FOUNTAIN GREENE KNOX MARTIN MONTGOMERY OWEN PARKE PUTNAM SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE VERMILLION VIGO WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 37 TORNADO IL IN 150100Z - 150800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 37 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois West-Central Indiana * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 800 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Ongoing storms across Missouri have intensified over the past hour or so. These storms are expected to continue moving northeastward into central IL and west-central IN over the next few hours. The environment over this region will remain supportive of severe thunderstorm capable of all severe hazards, including strong wind gusts up to 80 mph, large hail over up to 2-2.5", and tornadoes. Given the environmental conditions, a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Bloomington IL to 60 miles south southeast of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 38 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-069-073-079- 099-103-139-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN NEVADA OUACHITA UNION LAC021-027-035-041-049-061-065-067-073-083-107-111-123-150740- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JACKSON LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE OUACHITA RICHLAND TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 38 TORNADO AR LA MS 150245Z - 151000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 38 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Western Mississippi * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 945 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The moist, unstable, and moderately to strongly sheared airmass that exists over the region will remain supportive of thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including a strong (EF2+) tornado, for the next several hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles southeast of Monroe LA to 35 miles north northwest of Monticello AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ARG TO 5 N CGI TO 15 NE MVN TO 15 SSW MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193- 199-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW ARG TO 5 N CGI TO 15 NE MVN TO 15 SSW MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0188 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-185-191-193- 199-150740- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 36 TORNADO AR IL IN KY MO MS TN 150030Z - 150800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 36 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Southern Illinois Far Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 730 PM until 300 AM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the watch area over the next several hours. Environmental conditions are very favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and strong (EF2+) tornadoes. If storms can remain discrete, potential exists for a few long-track tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Evansville IN to 25 miles southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and marginally severe hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the East. ...Atlantic Coastal States... At the start of the period, a mid-level trough will be located in the mid Mississippi Valley, with south-southwest flow in place across much of the eastern U.S. A 90 to 100 kt mid-level jet streak should be located over the southern Appalachians. At 12Z on Sunday, a broken line of strong storms is expected to be ongoing within relatively close proximity to this jet. The stronger cells within this broken line may be associated with an isolated severe threat, as it moves eastward across Virginia, the Carolinas, southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat is expected to ramp up during the mid to late morning as surface temperatures warm ahead of the line. Isolated severe gusts should occur with the more organized short multicell line segments. Cells that remain discrete could also have a threat for isolated large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to remain isolated, with the greatest potential in the central Carolinas and south-central Virginia. The severe threat is expected to be maintained into the afternoon, as the storms move toward the Atlantic Coast. While the shear environment will be impressive, instability is forecast to remain weak with poor low-level lapse rates. This should keep any severe threat relatively isolated. ...Southern and Central Appalachians... A mid-level trough will move slowly through the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday, as a jet streak translates northeastward into the central Appalachians. During the morning, convection that is located near a pre-frontal trough, will move eastward away from the higher terrain and into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Further west, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward to near the crest of the southern Appalachians by afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface heating will take place allowing for weak destabilization. In addition, the environment will consist of cold air aloft and strong large-scale ascent near the mid-level jet. This should support a marginal severe threat in the afternoon, with isolated severe gusts and hail possible. This severe threat could extend northeastward into parts of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, where weak instability is also forecast to remain weak. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf States/Tennessee Valley Region... Strong cyclone that is lifting northeast across the upper MS Valley will eject into northwest Ontario later today as a very strong mid-level speed max digs southeast across northern Mexico into south-central TX. Later tonight, this jet will translate into the central Gulf States with winds in excess of 110kt. In response to this feature, a surface low should evolve along the trailing boundary along the TX/LA border early in the period, then track northeast into western KY by 16/00z. Additionally, an intense LLJ will evolve by mid day across northern MS and strengthen during the afternoon as it gradually shifts downstream into AL/middle TN/KY by early evening. Net result should be for a bit higher moisture content to advance farther north than previous thought. Early this morning, an arcing band of scattered supercells extended across southern IL into eastern AR. More isolated activity has persisted much of the late evening across portions of MS. Latest thinking is convective overturning should remain minimal across the lower MS Valley and this will allow significant destabilization to materialize ahead of the surface low early in the period. Latest surface data depicts lower 70s dew points across southern LA/southwest MS, with mid 60s approaching the south side of the Memphis metro. Confidence is increasing that a corridor of strong buoyancy and intense shear will be in place prior to the aforementioned speed max/short-wave trough. Forecast soundings exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with ESRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 across a broad swath of the central Gulf States, especially the categorical High Risk delineation. While scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western TN Valley, convection should increase in intensity by late morning across LA as the leading edge of the approaching short wave begins to influence this region. Continued boundary-layer heating will lead to subsequent development and supercells should mature and race northeast as the flow strengthens. This flow regime favors long-lived tornadoes, and the parameter space suggests potentially violent, long-track tornadoes. This activity will grow upscale in both coverage and intensity through late afternoon as the overall severe complex shifts downstream. Large hail and damaging winds may also accompany these storms, but the primary concern today will be the likelihood for a tornado outbreak, especially across Mississippi into Alabama. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/15/2025 Read more

WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MMO TO 20 NNE MMO TO 20 SE JVL. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-043-063-089-091-093-097-111-197-150640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE MCHENRY WILL INC073-089-111-127-150640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ740-741-742-743-744-745-150640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 35 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO LM 142355Z - 150700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 35 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois Far Northeast Missouri Lake Michigan * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 655 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Ongoing line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to progress quickly northeastward/eastward over the next several hours. Very strong low- to mid-level wind fields exist, supporting the potential for strong gust with any deeper, more sustained storms. Some isolated hail is possible as well. Dry low-levels are expected to keep the tornado potential very low, although still none zero given the strongly sheared environment. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Cedar Rapids IA to 45 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0040 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 40 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 40 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103- 113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-150640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD CASS DE KALB ELKHART FULTON GRANT HUNTINGTON JAY KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL MIAMI NOBLE PULASKI ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WABASH WELLS WHITE WHITLEY MIC021-023-027-059-149-150640- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BRANCH CASS HILLSDALE ST. JOSEPH OHC003-039-051-069-125-137-161-171-150640- Read more