SPC Mar 16, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Seasonally strong upper trough, though bimodal in nature, will shift into the OH Valley/Southeast by the end of the period. Ahead of the main trough, a lead mid-level speed max will translate across eastern OH/western PA with 500mb speeds in excess of 120kt. This feature will be partly responsible for sustaining a surface low that should track from southeast lower MI into ON by early afternoon. Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across western PA early in the period, and this will aid moistening ahead of the short wave. Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection/precipitation extends from the FL Panhandle, northeast into OH. Warm advection will likely maintain this activity which will be ongoing at the start of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a secondary band of convection will develop along/ahead of the front by mid-late morning, and an upward evolving, strongly forced line of storms, and a few embedded supercells, will surge east into western PA. Damaging winds seem plausible with this convection, and profiles also favor some risk for a few brief tornadoes. ...Southeast... Mid-level heights will fall across the southeastern U.S. early in the period as low-latitude jet core shifts east along the Gulf Coast into GA. This will ensure the primary synoptic front progresses steadily east through the period. By 18z the wind shift should extend from the southern Appalachians into the eastern FL Panhandle. Subsequent movement will result in the front advancing into the southern FL Peninsula by 17/12z. Scattered strong/severe convection, with some risk for supercells, will be noted ahead of the surging boundary. Forecast soundings exhibit very strong 0-6km bulk shear, and ample ESRH will be more than adequate for a risk of a few tornadoes. Steep mid-level lapse rates also suggest the more robust updrafts should generate hail. Overall, severe threat will shift east/southeast through the period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 49 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW PNS TO 25 SSW GZH TO 20 E GZH TO 20 WNW TOI TO 15 NE TOI TO 15 WSW AUO TO 20 NW AUO TO 20 SE ANB TO 25 E ANB TO 30 S RMG TO 20 NE RMG. ..JEWELL..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-031-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-081-087-109-111- 113-160640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL FLC005-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-160640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 49

2 months ago
WW 49 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 160045Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 49 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and Southern Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Western and Central Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 845 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area through early Sunday morning. The primary risks will be tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Gadsden AL to 25 miles south southeast of Pensacola FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 46...WW 47...WW 48... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 48 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0048 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CHA TO 15 S CSV TO 30 SE TYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216 ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC047-055-083-111-123-129-187-213-227-281-291-295-311-313- 160340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE FANNIN GILMER GORDON LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC039-160340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE TNC007-011-065-107-121-123-139-143-160340- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 48 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0048 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW CHA TO 15 S CSV TO 30 SE TYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0216 ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 48 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC047-055-083-111-123-129-187-213-227-281-291-295-311-313- 160340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE FANNIN GILMER GORDON LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC039-160340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE TNC007-011-065-107-121-123-139-143-160340- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 48

2 months ago
WW 48 TORNADO GA NC TN 152155Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 48 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Georgia Far Western North Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 555 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area through this evening, with a risk for tornadoes, a couple potentially strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Knoxville TN to 40 miles south southeast of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC MD 216

2 months ago
MD 0216 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 48... FOR EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0857 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 48... Valid 160157Z - 160400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind and tornado threat persist across parts of eastern Middle Tennessee, but is expected to continue waning heading into the late evening hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection across eastern TN has shown signs of gradual weakening with decreasing lightning counts, and warming cloud top temperatures. However, convection that remains across the area continues to show signs of mid-level rotation, and the overall convective environment remains very strongly sheared within a broad, northward-lifting warm frontal zone. The kinematic environment was sampled well by the 00z FFC sounding, though prolonged convective overturning across much of TN is limiting buoyancy considerably more than was is depicted by the observed sounding. Although a localized severe threat continues for the short-term (next hour or so), continued diabatic cooling heading into the late evening should result in gradually diminishing severe potential. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX... LAT...LON 35358393 35138402 35018425 35018488 34998540 35138551 35358549 35518543 36338491 36488472 36528450 36508417 36418387 36208381 35358393 Read more

SPC MD 217

2 months ago
MD 0217 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 49... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...much of central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 49... Valid 160200Z - 160400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of strong tornadoes persists over watch area, especially over central Alabama. DISCUSSION...In the wake of tornadic storms which went across the BMX radar, a residual region of outflow remains across parts of Shelby, Talladega, Chilton and Coosa counties. Meanwhile, a very large complex of storms is coming up from the southwest. Very strong inflow winds exist ahead of this complex, which will continue to feed these storms and possibly enhance lift along the residual outflow from the earlier storms. Given over 400 m2/s2 0-1 SRH, it is possible that any interaction with the boundary could result in a strong tornado. The environment remains favorable extending farther south as well, where a north-south confluence line is noted ahead of the primary cold front, and including the Wilcox County cell. ..Jewell.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31078822 32848706 33028673 33238638 33438615 33598561 33278545 32118566 31038628 30938804 31078822 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 49 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GPT TO 25 E TCL TO 10 E BHM TO 30 NNW GAD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0217 ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-035- 037-039-041-045-047-051-053-055-061-067-069-081-085-087-097-099- 101-105-109-111-113-115-117-121-123-131-160340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BIBB BULLOCK BUTLER CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COFFEE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA ETOWAH GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WILCOX Read more

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

2 months ago
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

2 months ago
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Eastern Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia The Florida Panhandle Middle and Eastern Tennessee * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which may be long-track and potentially violent, should continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

SPC Mar 16, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes continues this evening. Severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia/Florida Panhandle later tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is evident on water-vapor imagery over eastern OK/TX. This feature will shift into the lower MS Valley later this evening as 100+kt 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into the central Gulf States. While the primary synoptic front is lagging the organized band of convection, ample low-level convergence/inflow is noted across southern AL/western FL Panhandle into western GA. This will encourage ongoing activity to propagate downstream, aided by the fast-approaching mid-level speed max/short wave. This corridor of storms is multifaceted with embedded supercells and bowing type structures, within an otherwise broad precip shield. Latest observations suggest the most buoyant air mass is correlated with mid-upper 60s surface dew points, which have advanced as far north as ALX in eastern AL. Air mass recovery is expected downstream into western GA which should support a continuation of ongoing severe into this region. 00z sounding from FFC exhibits fairly steep lapse rates through 6km, and further boundary-layer moistening will prove beneficial for further destabilization. Strong tornado threat continues with any supercells as large-scale support and very strong shear remain favorable. Additionally, damaging winds can be expected with any line segments, and bowing structures. Hail is also possible, especially across the more buoyant southern areas. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 46 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-013-015-021-023-025-033-035-037-043-047-049-051- 055-057-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-085-089-091-093-095- 099-101-103-105-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133- 152240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BUTLER CALHOUN CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COLBERT CONECUH COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON MSC039-041-111-131-153-152240- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 47 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HSV TO 50 SSE BNA TO 50 E BWG. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-061-087-103-127-133-137-141- 175-177-185-152240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN GRUNDY JACKSON LINCOLN MOORE OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 213

2 months ago
MD 0213 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 46... FOR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0213 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...southern Mississippi into central and southern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 46... Valid 152318Z - 160215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues. SUMMARY...The environment remains quite favorable for strong tornadoes, but will depend on storm mode going into the evening and early morning hours. DISCUSSION...Supercells moving out of eastern MS have transitioned into more of a small MCS this evening, from west-central AL into parts of eastern MS. Farther south, more discrete cell mode was noted across far southern MS to the LA border. While storm mode is currently a bit disorganized, shear, moisture and instability all remain favorable for conditionally strong tornadoes at any point this evening and through early morning. In addition, dewpoints and thus instability will also increase across the remainder of eastern AL and toward GA late tonight as the low-level jet persists. It is possible that reorganization may take place later this evening as we transition out of the daytime/diurnal regime. Any robust, discrete cells will have a high conditional risk of being tornadic supercells. Any linear structures may still produce tornadoes and swaths of damaging wind as well as effective SRH remains at or above 500 m2/s2. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30318979 30628951 31458910 31998846 32308814 32658781 32878771 33188745 33408693 33428620 33228596 32858582 32268597 31668640 31168676 30288732 30068936 30318979 Read more

SPC MD 214

2 months ago
MD 0214 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 47...48... FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0214 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 47...48... Valid 152321Z - 160115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47, 48 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and severe gusts continues across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, convection across north-central AL has struggled to maintain intensity as it migrates into a deeply saturated, rain cooled environment. Recent surface observations depict a rather pronounced surface warm front extending across northern AL that delineates the northern extent of appreciable surface-based buoyancy. Despite the thermodynamic challenges, the low to mid-level theta-e axis remains in place across north-central AL. Strong isentropic ascent within this regime continues to support very strongly veered hodographs within the lowest few kilometers, exemplified by KBMX and KHTX VWP observations featuring 0-1 km SRH on the order of 400-500 m2/s2. Additionally, GOES IR imagery and lightning data have shown occasional updraft pulses within this warm advection regime and embedded supercell structures within a broken line of storms across eastern Middle TN which hint that buoyancy remains adequate for at least transient deep convection. Recent WoFS guidance appears to support this idea with some signal for low-level helicity tracks and severe gust potential focused across northeast AL into eastern/southeastern TN between 23-02 UTC. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 36448458 36358426 36238405 36008403 35768410 35398424 34828464 34328519 33988567 33828612 33788666 33788710 33898744 34098791 34288816 34648816 34758804 34888784 34908761 34888726 34878657 34928619 35038590 35248565 35548543 35928525 36378488 36448458 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 48

2 months ago
WW 48 TORNADO GA NC TN 152155Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 48 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Georgia Far Western North Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 555 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area through this evening, with a risk for tornadoes, a couple potentially strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Knoxville TN to 40 miles south southeast of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 45 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW HUM TO 35 WNW CBM TO 30 NW MSL. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC095-103-105-117-152240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC017-023-025-031-035-045-047-057-059-061-065-067-069-073-075- 081-087-091-095-099-101-103-105-109-117-129-141-147-159- 152240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICKASAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST HANCOCK HARRISON ITAWAMBA JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LEE LOWNDES MARION MONROE NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER PRENTISS SMITH TISHOMINGO Read more
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