WW 0039 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 39 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE RFD TO 20 SE MSN TO 40 NNW MSN. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 39 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC021-027-055-059-079-089-101-127-131-133-150640- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DODGE JEFFERSON KENOSHA MILWAUKEE OZAUKEE RACINE WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0183 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...South-central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 150230Z - 150430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development across south-central Arkansas appears probable in the coming hours as a dryline shifts east. Watch issuance will likely be needed in this region to address this threat. DISCUSSION...KLZK and GOES IR imagery show thunderstorm development southward along a dryline from the Hot Spring, AR region southward towards Texarkana. 02 UTC upper air analyses suggest that low to mid-level winds are not quite as strong compared to northern AR; however, a strengthening low-level jet sampled by KLZK and KSHV VWPs is supporting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2. Improving low-level kinematics combined with slightly better surface moisture/MLCAPE is yielding STP values on the order of 2-4, which implies a robust tornado environment is in place downstream of the developing convection. Discrete to semi-discrete supercells migrating into this air mass may be capable of very large hail (1.5 to 2.0 inches in diameter) and potentially significant (EF-2+) tornadoes. Watch issuance will likely be needed in the near term to address this potential. ..Moore/Mosier.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33439383 33849363 34489329 34599284 34519185 34259154 33989151 33689166 33419182 33199205 33089230 33049260 33049302 33069338 33109362 33179377 33439383 Read more

MD 0184 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 32...36... FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
Mesoscale Discussion 0184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...36... Valid 150320Z - 150515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32, 36 continues. SUMMARY...Supercells with a history of producing tornadoes will continue to pose a tornado threat (including significant tornadoes) for the next couple of hours as they move into northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri. DISCUSSION...Two long-lived supercells moving across north-central AR and south-central MO have had a history of producing tornadoes per dual-pol data and spotter reports. Based on rotational velocity estimates and the magnitude of the convective environment (characterized by STP values up to 10), one or more of these tornadoes were likely significant (EF-2+). These cells will continue to reside in this exceptionally rare STP environment for the next 1-2 hours as they move into far northeast AR and southeast MO. Consequently, the potential for additional long-track and significant (possibly intense) tornadoes will continue across this region. ..Moore.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36288949 36199000 36109040 36059102 36039140 36059169 36169174 36349174 37349105 37569080 37659037 37618987 37538962 37378936 37068920 36788911 36428929 36288949 Read more

MD 0185 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 32...37... FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...central and western Illinois...southeastern Missouri...and northeastern and central Arkansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...37... Valid 150342Z - 150445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32, 37 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk to continue from central Illinois southwestward into central Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that supercell storms that moved through the St. Louis area have evolved toward more of a damaging wind risk, as they have interacted with a drier low-level airmass east of the Mississippi River. With that said, damaging wind gusts remain likely, along with ongoing -- albeit somewhat lesser -- tornado potential. Farther south-southwestward along the convective band, more isolated/classic-looking supercells extend across southeastern Missouri, and particularly into northeastern and into central Arkansas. Specifically, strong rotation is noted within several storms in a zone from southeastern Reynolds/northwestern Wayne Counties in Missouri, southwestward to White County Arkansas. Along with risk for damaging winds and hail, greatest tornado risk appears to exist across this zone over the next couple of hours. Southern portions of WW 32 may be extended in time, beyond its scheduled 15/04Z expiration. ..Goss.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 34469245 35209241 37119092 38229085 39148980 40008987 40868924 40878765 39168756 38648840 37448972 34629127 34469245 Read more

WW 0039 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0039 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 39 SEVERE TSTM WI 150305Z - 150900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 39 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1005 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts is expected to continue tonight across southern Wisconsin. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Madison WI to 50 miles east northeast of Janesville WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...WW 33...WW 34...WW 35...WW 36...WW 37...WW 38... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 37 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-051- 053-057-075-079-095-101-105-107-113-115-121-123-125-129-135-137- 139-143-147-159-167-169-171-173-175-179-183-189-203-150440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FORD FULTON IROQUOIS JASPER KNOX LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MARION MARSHALL MASON MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PEORIA PIATT RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY STARK TAZEWELL VERMILION WASHINGTON WOODFORD INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-119-121-133-153-157-165-167- 171-150440- Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ALO TO 20 NNE RST. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-043-191-150340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CLAYTON WINNESHIEK MNC045-055-169-150340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE HOUSTON WINONA WIC023-043-063-081-103-123-150340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ALO TO 20 NNE RST. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...FSD...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-043-191-150340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CLAYTON WINNESHIEK MNC045-055-169-150340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE HOUSTON WINONA WIC023-043-063-081-103-123-150340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD GRANT LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON Read more

WW 34 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 142240Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 34 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa South-Central and Southeast Minnesota Far Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 540 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing across Iowa will continue to spread northward/northeastward over the next few hours. The environment is expected to remain supportive of large hail and strong/damaging wind gusts across northern Iowa, south-central/southeast Minnesota, and far southwest Wisconsin throughout the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Worthington MN to 45 miles east southeast of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30...WW 31...WW 32...WW 33... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BRL TO 30 W MLI TO 35 N CID. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-073-085-089-091-093-097-099-103- 109-111-131-141-155-161-177-187-195-197-201-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY JO DAVIESS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MERCER OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WARREN WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO IAC019-031-045-055-061-097-105-139-163-150340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCHANAN CEDAR CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE JACKSON JONES MUSCATINE SCOTT Read more

WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW TYS TO 15 NE TYS TO 30 NE TYS TO 35 WNW HSS TO 25 NNE TRI. WW 4 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 070500Z. ..HART..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC009-029-059-089-155-163-179-070500- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT COCKE GREENE JEFFERSON SEVIER SULLIVAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HOT TO 10 ESE FLP TO 25 WNW UNO TO 15 SSW VIH TO 35 WNW STL TO 35 SE UIN TO 30 SSW BRL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0181 ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-045-049-063-065-067-075-085-095-105-117-119-121- 125-135-137-141-145-147-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FAULKNER FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LONOKE MONROE PERRY PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF ILC009-013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY MACOUPIN MADISON Read more

WW 32 TORNADO AR IL MO 142100Z - 150400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 32 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Western Illinois Central and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will move very quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening. Widespread severe/damaging winds are the main threat this afternoon, with gusts potentially reaching up to 80-90 mph. The tornado and large hail threat is expected to increase later this evening, with sustained supercells potentially posing a threat for multiple strong tornadoes as moisture returns northward across Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Quincy IL to 15 miles east southeast of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30...WW 31... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22055. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 36 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 36 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-055-077-093-107-111-123-150340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-150340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NNE OTM TO 30 NE OXV TO 45 NNE DSM TO 15 E FOD. ..GOSS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-013-017-023-069-075-079-083-091-099-123-127-157-169-171- 179-197-150240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BLACK HAWK BREMER BUTLER FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN HUMBOLDT JASPER MAHASKA MARSHALL POWESHIEK STORY TAMA WAPELLO WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong to intense, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...01z Update... Intense mid-level jet is translating across northeast OK/southwest MO early this evening. This feature will advance toward southern Lake MI later tonight as the upper low lifts into northern IA. Impressive 12hr height falls, and shear are noted ahead of this cyclone. With 0-3 ESRH in excess of 400 m2/s2, thermodynamics may be the primary modulator in convective mode this evening/over night. Over the last few hours, richer boundary-layer moisture is beginning to surge into the southeastern influence of this ejecting trough. Lower 60s surface dew points have advanced to near the MO/AR border, and this is boosting instability within the aforementioned environment that strongly favors supercells. Several supercells are in the process of maturing along a corridor from central MO into northwest AR. Latest thinking is this activity will continue to evolve and grow upscale. Multiple long-lived supercells are expected within an environment very favorable for strong-intense tornadoes, especially from eastern MO, south into MS. Farther north, damaging winds remain likely with strongly-forced convection as it surges northeast across the mid-MS Valley into southeast MN/southern WI. Overall, convective complex will steadily shift downstream overnight as LLJ strengthens across eastern IL/IN into southwest lower MI. ..Darrow.. 03/15/2025 Read more

MD 0175 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
Mesoscale Discussion 0175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into northwest Mississippi...western Tennessee...and the Missouri Bootheel Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142350Z - 150145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears possible in the next 1-2 hours across eastern Arkansas. Storms are expected to intensify as they migrate east/northeast into adjacent portions of Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee. Watch issuance is likely as the severe threat becomes apparent (though timing is slightly uncertain). DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible and low-level water-vapor imagery show a band of gradually deepening cumulus across eastern AR on the eastern fringe of a low-level theta-e axis where isentropic ascent is regionally greatest. A few orphan anvils and occasional lightning flashes have been noted within the last 10-30 minutes, suggesting that this may be the early stages of convective initiation that has been consistently depicted in recent HRRR solutions over the past few hours. However, thunderstorms further south across eastern LA that developed in a similar, if not a better from a thermodynamic perspective, convective environment have struggled to maintain intensity and organization over the past hour. Consequently, it remains somewhat uncertain whether robust convective initiation is imminent and how widespread storm coverage will be in the next few hours. Closer proximity to the primary upper trough may support stronger forcing for ascent and perhaps higher probability for successful convective initiation. If storms can develop and intensify, they will likely pose a threat for all convective hazards, including the potential for a strong tornado, given favorable buoyancy, deep-layer shear, and low-level SRH observed from KLZK and KNQA VWPs (the environment is also characterized by SCP values between 12-16 and STP values of 2-4, suggesting a robust convective environment). Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is likely if/when a severe threat begins to materialize. ..Moore/Mosier.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33509186 33669196 34169183 34959151 36369085 36589025 36638981 36618915 36438878 35928864 35348868 34748897 34378929 33988977 33549121 33429155 33449171 33509186 Read more

MD 0176 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Texas into the Texarkana region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150039Z - 150245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the dryline across eastern TX may pose a severe risk through the next several hours. Storm coverage and intensity are uncertain based on recent convective trends, but conditions will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation have been underway for the past hour or so along a dryline across eastern TX into the Texarkana region. A few thunderstorms have managed to develop across east central TX and are showing signs of slow intensification per IR and lightning trends. IR imagery along the remainder of the dryline shows little in the way of imminent convective development; however, latest guidance continues to hint that additional development is possible as the dryline gradually drifts east into an moistening air mass as the primary surface low across KS lifts to the northeast. The convective environment downstream across eastern TX into southwest AR/northwest LA (characterized by MLCAPE upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg and 45-55 knots of effective shear) suggests that robust supercells are possible if cells can sufficiently intensify to become self-sufficient and mature within the favorable air mass. Large hail will likely be the primary threat given very favorable deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates, though a tornado threat may emerge given 50-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need for watch issuance if a sufficiently widespread severe threat materializes. ..Moore/Mosier.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30899533 30549620 30489656 30649673 30859670 31089644 31699564 32509495 33219452 33659417 33889382 33949338 33809303 33449284 32959298 32459333 31969371 31569412 31199466 30899533 Read more