MD 0170 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of far eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma through northwestern Arkansas...western and central Missouri and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 141801Z - 142030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A rapidly developing squall line may initiate near of just west of the western Missouri state border vicinity as early as 3-4 PM CDT. This will probably pose increasing potential for producing very strong, damaging surface gusts and some severe hail while rapidly developing northeastward through early evening. Potential for large hail and a few tornadoes may begin to increase prior to sunset, particularly across parts of south central through southwestern Missouri into northwestern and north central Arkansas. One or more severe weather watches will be needed. DISCUSSION...In the wake of the initial, elevated convective development, boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing in a narrow corridor across eastern Oklahoma through eastern Kansas, within the evolving warm sector of the deep, occluding cyclone now centered over northwestern Kansas. This is being supported by still rather modest low-level moisture return characterized by upper 40s to near 50F surface dew points along an ill-defined dryline, to the north of the I-44 corridor. Still, beneath steep lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air, insolation is forecast to contribute to increasing mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg within the next couple hours, with continued cooling further aloft. As an intense cyclonic mid/upper-level jet streak (including a core in excess of 100 kt around 500 mb) continues nosing across the south central Great Plains toward the lower Missouri Valley through early this evening, associated forcing for ascent coupled with the destabilization appears likely to support the initiation and intensification of thunderstorm activity. It appears that this may commence near the western Missouri/Kansas and Oklahoma state border vicinity, as the dryline is overtaken by the stronger near-surface through mid-tropospheric cooling. Any initially discrete thunderstorm development seems likely to be short-lived, with a rapid upscale growing line expected, probably by 20-22Z, if not perhaps a bit earlier. Given the initially modestly deep and well-mixed boundary layer, and the strength of the lower/mid-tropospheric flow (including 50-60 kts south to south-southwesterly in the lowest 3-6 km AGL), the development of strong, damaging surface gusts appears to the most certain potential severe hazard. The extent of the hail and tornado threat remains a bit more unclear. However, guidance is suggestive that at least a bit more substantive low-level moisture return ahead of the developing line, across northwestern Arkansas into southwest and south-central Missouri, might support increasing potential associated with these hazards prior to 15/00Z. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX... TOP... LAT...LON 40859479 40949226 37709199 35589331 35219431 38219502 39279545 40079546 40859479 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 14 18:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a powerful and negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains. An intense mid-level jet (with winds of 100-115+ kt at 500 mb) will continue to round the base of the trough, and quickly eject northeastward across OK and eastern KS this afternoon. This mid-level jet will move over parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest this evening and tonight in tandem with the northeastward-advancing shortwave trough. Strong ascent aloft associated with both of these features will overspread portions of the central CONUS as a deep surface cyclone develops northeastward from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. In the low levels, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern/central Plains through the day, eventually arcing from the low southeastward into the Ozarks. A large area of significant severe potential remains evident across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Mid-South... Ample diurnal heating is expected through this afternoon ahead of the cyclone, with elevated convection already occurring across parts of eastern OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. More robust, surface-based thunderstorms will likely develop by early/mid afternoon (18-21z) along/east of the dryline from parts of eastern NE southward into eastern KS/western MO, as a southerly low-level jet attempts to bring shallow boundary-layer moisture northward into the mid MS Valley and vicinity. The northern portion of this convection will be oriented more orthogonal to the ejecting mid-level jet, and current expectations are for quick upscale growth into a fast northeastward-moving band, posing a risk for widespread severe/damaging winds as this activity moves into IA and towards the MO/IA/IL border region. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow and presence of steep lapse rates aloft, along with a well-mixed boundary layer, intense thunderstorm straight-line gusts peaking locally in the 80-100 mph range are possible with the stronger cores/inflections in the band as it matures and moves across parts of the mid MS Valley, and eventually into the southwestern Great Lakes this evening through tonight. Additional, potentially more discrete, severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon farther southeast along the wind shift into central/eastern MO, generally on the northern periphery of somewhat better low-level moisture from southeast MO southward into the Mid-South. Stronger high-level flow and ample deep-layer shear over these will likely promote at least semi-discrete supercells. Latest model guidance, including various convection-allowing HREF members, suggest scattered supercells developing late this afternoon and evening as far south as the MS/AR/TN border region. Have nudged severe probabilities and the corresponding SLGT/ENH/MDT westward a little in western/central MO to account for a slightly earlier initiation. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings strongly favor intense supercells capable of large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter), and potentially multiple strong to intense tornadoes this evening as effective SRH rapidly increases in tandem with a southerly low-level jet strengthening to 50-65+ kt. This substantial severe threat is expected to continue eastward overnight into parts of the lower OH Valley/Midwest, before convection eventually outpaces the low-level moisture return and weakens. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Large-scale forcing for ascent appears a bit more nebulous/weak farther south into the lower MS Valley. Still, the 12Z suite of guidance shows some potential for surface-based thunderstorms developing by late this afternoon across the ArkLaMiss region. While the stronger low/mid-level flow and forcing are expected to remain to the north of this region, greater low-level moisture and related instability will be present. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support supercells, with associated threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some of tornadoes could be strong this evening with any sustained supercells, especially across central MS and vicinity. Have expanded the ENH to account for this potential, and consideration was given to expanding the MDT southward into central MS as well. But, there is still some uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/14/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 14 14:01:01 UTC 2025.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0832 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Far Northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid South. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor satellite imagery shows a powerful negatively tilted mid to upper-level shortwave trough over the Four Corners into the southern High Plains. A very intense 500-mb speed max in excess of 100+ kt will round the base of the trough and quickly move northeastward across OK this afternoon and near Lake Michigan late tonight. The associated 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will overspread portions of the central U.S. as a deep cyclone develops northeast from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. In the low levels, a dryline will surge across the central Plains eventually arcing from the low southeastward into the Ozarks. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone and initial storms will likely develop by early afternoon (18-20z) from eastern NE southward into eastern KS/western MO. Storms will quickly grow upscale into a fast northeastward-moving band of storms posing a risk for all hazards as this activity moves into IA and towards the MO/IA/IL border region. Intense thunderstorm straight-line gusts peaking locally in the 80-100 mph range are possible with the stronger cores/inflections in the band as it matures and moves across the Mid MS Valley and eventually into the southwestern Great Lakes tonight. Have made some adjustments for higher wind/tornado probabilities over northern IL eastward into the Michiana region late tonight. Additional severe storms will develop southeast along the wind shift into MO and within the northern periphery of richer low-level moisture from southeast MO southward into eastern AR and into northern MS/western TN. Stronger high-level flow over the Mid South will promote more discrete supercell structures. Recent model guidance indicates at least widely scattered storms developing towards the evening as far south as the MS/AR/TN border region. Forecast soundings strongly favor intense supercells capable of large to very large hail and potentially a few strong tornadoes this evening and perhaps continuing into the late evening. Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous farther south into the Gulf coastal plain late. However, model guidance continues to suggest at least isolated supercell development may occur within an increasingly rich and weakly capped boundary layer overnight. Have likewise extended 10-percent significant tornado probabilities farther south into southern MS to account for this forecast scenario. Moderate buoyancy and enlarged hodographs will support a supercell tornado risk with this activity with it perhaps continuing into early Saturday morning. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/14/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... A broad anti-cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to develop across the continental U.S. on Monday, as surface high pressure moves across the southern and eastern U.S. On Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the western and central U.S. Weak low-level moisture return is expected to take place across the south-central U.S. ahead of the system. On Tuesday, thunderstorm development appears most likely across eastern parts of the southern and central Plains. By Wednesday, model forecasts have surface dewpoints reaching the 50s F in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday along this corridor. As the system moves across the south-central U.S. from Tuesday into Wednesday, a severe threat may develop. However, medium-range model forecasts suggest that instability will remain relatively weak, suggesting that any severe threat should be isolated and marginal. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... From Thursday into Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the mid Mississippi Valley quickly eastward to the western Atlantic. During the day on Thursday, thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the eastern U.S. The return of low-level moisture ahead of the system, and the resultant instability, is forecast to remain relatively weak. For this reason, any severe threat that develops on Thursday is expected to be marginal. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Western Indiana Northern Mississippi Northwest Alabama Extreme northeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more isolated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX. ...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau... 15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX Brush Country. ...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle... Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ..Moore.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANNA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, and some long-track tornadoes are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely. ...Tornado Outbreak Possible Across parts of the Southeast on Saturday... ...Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians/Georgia... At mid-levels on Saturday, a strong and fast-moving jet streak will translate eastward across the southern U.S., as an associated trough moves through the Great Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Warming surface temperatures in the morning will contribute to the development of moderate instability across much of the moist airmass. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching jet streak, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate near the western edge of the moist airmass during the late morning, from eastern Louisiana into northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee. These storms should become severe rather quickly due large-scale forcing, moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat are expected to develop and move east-northeastward during the afternoon across the central Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley. The exit region of the mid-level jet streak is forecast to move across the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee during the mid to late afternoon, which will be timed well with afternoon max heating. Forecast soundings at 21Z across parts of southern and central Mississippi have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear of 70 to 80 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 500 m2/s2 range. This will be very favorable for intense severe storms, with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. Several tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening, with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move into the western Great Lakes on Saturday, as the southern part of the trough moves into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the system, southwest mid-level flow will be in place over most of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the start of the period, a corridor of rich low-level moisture is forecast from western Kentucky northward into Indiana. Surface dewpoints along this corridor will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. Early in the period, a cluster of strong thunderstorms is forecast to move across the Ohio valley. Some of the storms could have severe potential. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. In the wake of this activity, outflow could negatively affect the airmass over parts of the Ohio Valley. However, areas that are not affected by outflow could re-destabilize, maintaining a severe threat. As the exit region of a mid-level jet moves across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon, supercells will be possible due to the increasing large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear. Any supercell could have potential for tornadoes, wind damage and hail. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is likely across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower-Mississippi Valley, including portions of the Lower Ohio Valley. Tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread damaging winds with gusts from 70 to 90 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size will be possible. ...Discussion... Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough over the southwestern U.S./northwest Mexico. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by sunrise as a 115kt 500mb speed max translates across southern NM. This jet max should increase to near 125kt as it translates into southwest OK by 18z, then weaken to near 100kt overnight over northern IL. Water-vapor/radar data suggest the leading edge of large-scale forcing is currently spreading across western NM. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr mid-level height falls (on the order of 240-270m) will spread across the southern Plains into IA as left-exit region of the aforementioned jet shifts into the mid-MS Valley. At the surface, a pronounced dry line will surge across the central Plains, arcing from a very deep surface low over northwest KS-eastern OK by 18z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast ahead of the cyclone, and convective temperatures will easily be breached as temperatures warm into the lower 70s. While surface dew points will remain a bit low, SBCAPE should exceed 1000 J/kg and robust convection will readily develop along the wind shift. Of particular concern will be the efficiency of mixing very strong flow downward within this convection. Forecast soundings exhibit 50kt just off the surface, and very steep lapse rates will prove favorable for severe gusts with any convection today. Widespread wind damage, with speeds likely exceeding 70 mph are expected. Severe squall line should organize and surge northeast across the mid-MS Valley during the afternoon/evening hours. Farther southeast, LLJ is forecast to strengthen markedly across eastern AR/MO into IL. This will allow somewhat higher boundary-layer moisture to advance across the lower into the middle MS Valley prior to thunderstorm development. Latest thinking is supercells should develop ahead of the fast-moving 500mb speed max, with some propensity for activity lingering across the mid-South as the right-entrance region of the jet influences longevity of convection. Forecast soundings strongly favor organized convection with supercells expected. Higher moisture content into eastern MO/southwest IL will contribute to higher tornado probabilities with these strongly sheared supercells. Longer-lived updrafts may produce strong tornadoes, in addition to very strong winds and large hail. Southern extent of the regional outbreak will likely be influenced by the lack of stronger forcing across the lower MS Valley. Even so, isolated severe supercells are expected within the less-forced environment. This activity may linger well into the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/14/2025 Read more