SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats this morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...OH Valley/northern Middle Atlantic... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the MS Valley with an embedded mid-level vorticity maximum rotating northeastward over the lower OH Valley. This mid-level feature will be accompanied by an intense belt of flow (110+ kt at 500 mb) shifting eastward across the upper OH Valley/central Appalachians through the day. In the low levels, a surface low over southeast Lower MI will develop northward reaching the Quebec/Ontario border by late afternoon. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector to the southeast of the low will only slightly destabilize through peak heating. Yet, short-term model guidance indicates 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE will develop later this morning across the central Appalachians into the eastern OH/western PA border region. A strongly forced band of convection is forecast to gradually evolve over the upper OH Valley. Largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs will support a risk for scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes with this activity. The area of greatest model agreement for a convective line posing a risk for severe appears most likely/concentrated across western into central parts of PA. Farther south, gradual intensification of convection within a weakly unstable airmass will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through early evening. ...Southeast... The southern portion of a mid-level trough will continue east through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast today, as a low-level jet steadily shifts east across north FL through much of SC by mid-late afternoon while gradually weakening south of North Carolina. An ongoing broken band of pre-frontal strong to severe thunderstorms will move east into a weakly unstable airmass (reference the 12 UTC Charleston, SC raob). Prior to a gradual weakening of 850-mb flow by early to mid afternoon, adequately enlarged hodographs within a destabilizing airmass (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across north-central FL with considerably weaker instability over the coastal Carolinas) will support organized storms, including line segments (mainly north) and some supercells (south). Scattered damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes are possible as the severe threat shifts east through the period. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/16/2025 Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE AAF TO 15 WNW VLD TO 15 WSW VDI TO 35 N VDI TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC003-069-107-161-173-185-209-279-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON COFFEE EMANUEL JEFF DAVIS LANIER LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TOOMBS GMZ730-755-161340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE Read more

MD 0222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...North Florida and southeast Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161128Z - 161300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A broken band of storms will spread eastward into southeast Georgia and north Florida through late morning. A new tornado watch appears likely. DISCUSSION...A broken band of storms has persisted overnight from south central GA into the eastern FL Panhandle, with occasional/embedded supercell structures. Low-level moistening over the next few hours and the onset of diurnal heating will drive destabilization across north FL/southeast GA later this morning. Though the low-level jet core will develop northeastward toward the Carolinas through the day, low-level flow/shear will remain sufficiently strong to support additional supercells through the morning across north FL/southeast GA. The storms will remain capable of producing occasional damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes, and a new tornado watch will likely be needed from 12-13z. ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31288133 30368164 29908202 29548247 29388309 29388323 29808337 30538324 31158280 31698236 31748192 31288133 Read more

WW 0052 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0052 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AAF TO 35 SSE MCN TO 40 S AGS. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC065-073-079-123-129-161240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LEON MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-017-019-027-069-071-075-091-107-155-161-173-175-185-209- 271-275-277-279-283-287-309-321-161240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COFFEE COLQUITT COOK DODGE EMANUEL IRWIN JEFF DAVIS LANIER LAURENS LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TELFAIR THOMAS TIFT TOOMBS TREUTLEN TURNER WHEELER WORTH Read more

WW 50 TORNADO FL GA SC CW 160615Z - 161400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle Southern into Central and Eastern Georgia West-Central South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning from 215 AM until 1000 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms with embedded supercells and line segments will move east across much of the Watch area tonight into the early morning. The more intense storms will be potentially capable of tornadoes, possibly including a strong tornado or two, and damaging gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of Augusta GA to 40 miles south southwest of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22055. ...Smith Read more

WW 0051 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0051 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0220 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 50... FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...East central Georgia to the eastern Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 50... Valid 160843Z - 161015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for occasional wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will persist through the morning. DISCUSSION...A forced, pre-frontal convective band is moving from central toward east central GA, with the band largely oriented parallel to the deep-layer flow/shear vectors. The QLCS in central GA is moving along the edge of the near-surface destabilization, and close to the 70 kt low-level jet core. Despite the weak near-surface buoyancy, occasional damaging gusts and a tornado or two could occur with embedded circulations, especially more north-south oriented segments. Stronger buoyancy is located farther to the southwest, where 68-70 F dewpoints have spread inland to extreme southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle. The more cellular storm mode in this area suggests some potential for occasional supercell structures, though low-level shear will slowly weaken through the morning as the low-level jet develops northeastward toward SC. ..Thompson.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32928311 33548277 33778217 33568193 32888218 32198252 31598306 31018363 30378419 29948467 29758515 30348515 31708435 32928311 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, a narrow axis of moisture and weak instability is forecast from the western Great Lakes into the lower Ohio Valley. This corridor of low-level moisture will be the favored location for convective development Wednesday afternoon. Surface dewpoints along the moist axis are only expected to be in the 40s to lower 50s F. In spite of this, the exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the region during the mid to late afternoon. This will provide strong lift and deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Any severe threat should remain marginal. On Thursday, the trough is forecast move eastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances to near the Atlantic Seaboard, from the eastern Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated severe storms will again be possible along or ahead of the front during the mid to late afternoon, but any threat is expected to be marginal. On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central states, where isolated convection will be possible. However, moisture return is expected to be confined to the Texas Coastal Plain, which will be a severe threat limiting factor. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, the trough is forecast to de-amplify and move into the northeastern U.S. as a broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern develops over much of the U.S. Moisture return is expected to take place over the western Gulf Coast on Saturday and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Some models suggest that a trough will take shape in the Great Plains on Sunday, with a cluster of storms forming ahead of the system Sunday afternoon. These storms would develop along the northern edge of the stronger instability from Oklahoma into Arkansas, expanding Sunday evening across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. If this scenario where to verify, then a severe threat would be possible with the stronger storms within the MCS. However, at this extended range, the magnitude and spatial extent of any severe threat remains considerably uncertain. Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PFN TO 20 NNE MAI TO 30 W ABY TO 45 ENE MCN TO 40 SSE AND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220 ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC013-037-039-045-065-073-077-079-123-129-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-007-017-019-023-027-033-037-069-071-073-075-081-087-091- 093-095-099-107-125-131-155-161-163-167-173-175-177-181-185-189- 201-205-209-235-245-253-271-273-275-277-279-283-287-303-309-315- 321-160940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN BLECKLEY BROOKS BURKE CALHOUN COFFEE COLQUITT COLUMBIA COOK Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible from late Tuesday night into the early morning on Wednesday from southeast Nebraska into Iowa and far northern Missouri. ...Southeast Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... At mid-levels on Tuesday, anticyclonic flow is forecast to be in place across the eastern half of the nation, as a trough moves quickly eastward through the Intermountain West and central Rockies. During the afternoon and evening, moisture return will take place ahead of the approaching system from the Ark-La-Tex northward into the mid Missouri Valley. By Tuesday night, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s F within a narrow corridor from far eastern Oklahoma into far eastern Kansas and southern Iowa. Overnight, a cold front is forecast to move through the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley, along which thunderstorm development is expected to take place. Forecast soundings at 06Z to 09Z near the front in far northwest Missouri and far southern Iowa have a low-level temperature inversion up to near 850 mb, with elevated instability located mostly above 700 mb. MUCAPE in the area is forecast to reach the 500 to 750 J/kg range, with effective shear of 30 to 40 knots. Mid-level lapse are forecast to be around 8 C/km. This environment could be enough for marginally severe hail with rotating storms that move along and near the instability axis. The majority of the severe threat is expected late in the period, between 06Z to 12Z early on Wednesday. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will return to the southern and central Plains on Monday as a dry return flow regime becomes established across the central CONUS. A surface low is forecast to deepen along the northern High Plains before migrating into the northern Plains through the day Monday. As this occurs, a strong low-level mass response will induce breezy southerly winds from TX into the central Plains. A recent frontal passage into the northern Gulf has degraded moisture quality along the TX coast with persistent offshore flow expected for the next 24 hours. Consequently, moisture return into the Plains on Monday is expected to be limited and will allow for RH reductions into the teens to mid 20s as temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s. A surface high shifting into the Southeast by Monday afternoon will support strong pressure gradient winds across NM and western TX/OK with a high probability for a large swath of sustained winds over 20 mph. Fire weather concerns are expected to be greatest across this region given recent fire activity and expected RH reductions into the low teens and single digits. Further north into the central High Plains, closer proximity to the surface trough/low will likely result in sustained winds closer to 15-20 mph. While weaker, these will still be sufficient to pose a widespread fire weather risk given receptive fine fuels over the region. Both the Critical and Elevated fire weather risk areas were expanded east compared to the previous forecast to take into account the typical bias in guidance to under-mix the boundary layer in these regimes (which typically results in drier/windier conditions than otherwise expected). Additional uncertainties include the east/northeast extent of the fire weather risk given recent precipitation across parts of the MO River Valley. Fuel trends will be monitored and further expansions may be needed depending on fuel trends. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE PNS TO 30 NE CEW TO 45 S CSG TO 25 S ATL TO 45 NNE ATL. WW 49 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160800Z. ..THOMPSON..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-160800- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-059-063-131-133-160800- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC053-061-135-151-171-197-239-247-255-263-293-160800- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of the southern High Plains and central High Plains this afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the eastern Plains this afternoon as an upper trough and attendant surface low translates east towards the East Coast. Across the central/northern Rockies, strengthening westerly flow at the apex of an upper ridge will induce lee troughing and a westerly flow regime across parts of the High Plains. This synoptic regime will favor dry/windy conditions across parts of NM/TX and WY/NE where fuels remain dry after minimal rainfall in recent days. ...Southern High Plains... West/southwest surface winds are expected to increase to around 15 mph on the southwesterly periphery of the surface ridge over the Plains. Although boundary-layer mixing is expected to be somewhat shallow (only to around 1 km AGL), 20-30 mph winds near the top of the boundary layer will manifest as occasional gusts at the surface by late afternoon. An influx of drier air from AZ and NM will support RH reductions into the teens, and fuels across the region remain receptive based on fuel guidance and recent fire activity. As such, a swath of elevated fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon. ...North-central High Plains... Early signs of lee troughing are already noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the northern High Plains. This trend will continue as zonal flow across the northern Rockies strengthens over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are expected on either side of the lee trough due to a combination of downslope flow off the Rockies and initial dry return flow over the Plains with RH reductions into the upper teens and low 20s likely. Westerly winds behind the lee trough should increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon, which will support a broad area of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized critical conditions are possible - especially across the NE Panhandle where the best overlap of strong downslope winds and sub-20% RH is greatest. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0218 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 49... FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 49... Valid 160419Z - 160615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues. SUMMARY...Two long-track supercells across eastern/southeastern AL will pose a risk for significant tornadoes downstream into far western GA over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Two leading supercells across eastern and southeastern AL have both recently produced tornadoes based on KEOX and KMXX velocity and dual pol data. Surface observations just ahead of these cells show 30-40 mph low-level winds are advecting high-quality moisture (mid 60s dewpoints) ahead of the storms. This suggests that although these cells are approaching the eastern edge of the effective warm sector, they will likely remain in a favorable thermodynamic environment for the next 1-2 hours. Additionally, regional VWPs continue to sample 0-1 km SRH on the order of 500 m2/s2, which is supporting STP values on the order of 2-4 in proximity to the storms/within the inflow region. Based on this environment and observed rotational velocities (50-60 knots at times), these cells will continue to be capable of producing significant (EF-2+) tornadoes in the short term. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 31328599 31348619 31498626 32448576 32798582 33058591 33338577 33478531 33438489 33088466 32568462 32188472 31858498 31568533 31438562 31328599 Read more

MD 0219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...Central/southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 160547Z - 160645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization will support a continued threat of wind damage and a few tornadoes into central/southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle through early morning. A new tornado may be needed after 06z. DISCUSSION...A band of storms with embedded bow/supercell characteristics is moving east-northeastward into west central GA, with continued storm development farther southwest along a confluence zone across southeast AL. The storms are along the eastern edge of the richer low-level moisture, but a 70 kt low-level jet will result in sufficient moisture transport near/just above the surface to maintain the convection for the next several hours. Given the very strong low-level shear/large hodographs, the potential for occasional wind damage and embedded circulations/tornadoes will persist. Thus, a new tornado watch will likely be needed into central/southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle after 06z. ..Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 33318405 34148361 33888277 32888240 32038286 31438316 29898384 29788541 31298501 31928468 33318405 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible early on Monday across far eastern North Carolina, and across parts of the West, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms will be possible near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina early in the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon ahead of a mid-level trough moving through California. Storms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest Coast, and from the northern and central California into the Intermountain West. No severe threat is expected on Monday or Monday night across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2025 Read more