SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0159 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle...southern Alabama...and southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091947Z - 092215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms are likely to produce hail through this evening. DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front currently exists over the northeastern Gulf, and near the coastal Florida Panhandle. While stronger overall instability resides to the south, substantial elevated instability exists well inland as southwest winds aloft persist and aid in moisture transport. Forecast soundings show strong effective shear over 60 kt, and these lengthy hodographs ahead of the upper trough will support hail production in elevated storms, including left movers. While only a few storms currently exist, additional development is possible near the frontal zone throughout the rest of the day. The primary threat should be hail above 1.00" diameter. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 29948418 29558494 29628534 29998572 30328644 30298714 30238758 30608750 31328710 31898596 31888457 31278402 30708395 29948418 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 9 21:19:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 9 17:52:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas Monday. Severe storms are unlikely. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow is forecast over the CONUS Monday. An upper low moving over the northern Gulf Coast and offshore will be the primary feature of interest for convection, as broad-scale ridging persists over the central US. Beneath the upper low, a surface cyclone is forecast to steadily intensify as it moves offshore over southern South Carolina early in the day. Trailing the low, a cold front will move eastward over the lower FL Peninsula. ...Coastal Carolinas... As the upper trough moves offshore, mid-level ascent will overspread the strong coastal front over the eastern Carolinas. In response, the initially broad surface low will deepen as it moves into the Atlantic. Scattered convection is likely to be ongoing through the morning within a broader area of precipitation, and should persist through much of the day, as isentropic ascent intensifies ahead of the deepening coastal low. Weak elevated buoyancy and moderate to strong mid-level flow could support a few stronger storms capable of an isolated damaging gust or hail. However, the surface-based warm sector should remain well offshore, keeping the probability for severe storms low. ...Florida Peninsula... Additional scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front over parts of the FL Peninsula early Monday. The front is forecast to move quickly eastward, as moderately strong deep-layer flow overspreads a narrow warm sector. The weakening upper low moving offshore will favor warm midlevel temperatures, resulting in only modest mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy. Given the relatively poor timing with the diurnal cycle, limited buoyancy and modest front-parallel shear, severe potential is low. However, a brief strong storm or two could produce damaging gusts across the eastern FL coast. Here, more diurnal heating is possible before the front moves offshore by early afternoon. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas Monday. Severe storms are unlikely. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow is forecast over the CONUS Monday. An upper low moving over the northern Gulf Coast and offshore will be the primary feature of interest for convection, as broad-scale ridging persists over the central US. Beneath the upper low, a surface cyclone is forecast to steadily intensify as it moves offshore over southern South Carolina early in the day. Trailing the low, a cold front will move eastward over the lower FL Peninsula. ...Coastal Carolinas... As the upper trough moves offshore, mid-level ascent will overspread the strong coastal front over the eastern Carolinas. In response, the initially broad surface low will deepen as it moves into the Atlantic. Scattered convection is likely to be ongoing through the morning within a broader area of precipitation, and should persist through much of the day, as isentropic ascent intensifies ahead of the deepening coastal low. Weak elevated buoyancy and moderate to strong mid-level flow could support a few stronger storms capable of an isolated damaging gust or hail. However, the surface-based warm sector should remain well offshore, keeping the probability for severe storms low. ...Florida Peninsula... Additional scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front over parts of the FL Peninsula early Monday. The front is forecast to move quickly eastward, as moderately strong deep-layer flow overspreads a narrow warm sector. The weakening upper low moving offshore will favor warm midlevel temperatures, resulting in only modest mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy. Given the relatively poor timing with the diurnal cycle, limited buoyancy and modest front-parallel shear, severe potential is low. However, a brief strong storm or two could produce damaging gusts across the eastern FL coast. Here, more diurnal heating is possible before the front moves offshore by early afternoon. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

MD 0158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN MS/AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090759Z - 091030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible overnight. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning from southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle, within a modest low-level warm advection regime, and immediately in advance of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across the lower MS Valley. This convection is generally focused north of a front extending from coastal southeast LA to just offshore of southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. The richest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the low 70s F) is confined to areas near/south of this front, with mid 60s F dewpoints extending inland immediately north of the front. Ongoing convection is likely somewhat elevated, but MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and strong effective shear are providing a favorable environment for at least transient storm organization. The strongest cells overnight will be capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, especially across western portions of the MCD area where somewhat stronger instability is in place. Guidance suggests some increase in low-level flow (which is currently rather weak) is possible later this morning, which could aid in the development of localized strong/damaging gusts with time. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29888882 30428887 30708894 30948884 31198830 31068630 30818500 30598422 30478372 30128342 29708339 29548357 29458417 29458486 29728574 29888638 29868705 29848784 29888839 29888882 Read more