SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more

MD 0157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Areas affected...southeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082123Z - 090000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected to develop over the next few hours, with isolated large hail or gusty winds possible. DISCUSSION...A weak surface low is present south of the Austin TX area, where a cold front approaching from the west is intersecting the southward surging boundary. The eastern portion of the boundary extends across the Sabine River and into southern LA, with substantial clouds and cooler temperatures within that zone. Southerly winds across the warm sector have led to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with temperatures in the 80s F and dewpoints mixed into the upper 60s F. Deep-layer shear is robust at over 60 kt, with lengthy hodographs. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but modest SRH values exist near the warm advection zone east of Houston. Visible imagery shows deepening CU fields around Houston, indicative of a moist deepening boundary layer, and showers are beginning to show on radar. As the cold front pushes into the area and interacts with the unstable air mass near peak heating, at least isolated cells are anticipated. Good lapse rates aloft and strong deep shear will support hail. A conditional damaging wind or even brief tornado risk could potentially occur with any storm that remains situated along the cold front/warm front intersection north/east of Houston, but any such threat should remain localized. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 30819565 30979498 30879446 30529426 30179440 29829462 29399504 29169542 28939588 28769627 28869661 29059674 29309674 29769662 29889653 30509606 30819565 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 8 23:36:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected throughout the extended forecast period across much of the southern High Plains. Confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 7/Friday. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies on Day 5/Wednesday, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central Plains. South of the cyclone, very strong/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH will develop across the southern High Plains, favoring critical fire-weather conditions. ...Day 7/Friday - Southern High Plains... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough tracking eastward across the West, a 90+ kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the central High Plains. This will result in very strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains, where high-end critical conditions are expected. Strong winds and low RH will likely extend farther northeast into the central Plains, and depending on fuel trends over the next several days, 70-percent Critical probabilities may need to be expanded into this region. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected throughout the extended forecast period across much of the southern High Plains. Confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions is highest on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 7/Friday. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies on Day 5/Wednesday, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central Plains. South of the cyclone, very strong/gusty westerly surface winds and low RH will develop across the southern High Plains, favoring critical fire-weather conditions. ...Day 7/Friday - Southern High Plains... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough tracking eastward across the West, a 90+ kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the southern and central Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the central High Plains. This will result in very strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across the southern High Plains, where high-end critical conditions are expected. Strong winds and low RH will likely extend farther northeast into the central Plains, and depending on fuel trends over the next several days, 70-percent Critical probabilities may need to be expanded into this region. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z An Elevated area was added over portions of southern ND into central SD, where guidance has trended slightly drier (minimum RH around 20-25 percent) owing to strengthening downslope flow amid a dry antecedent air mass. While fuels appear marginal across the region, the highlighted area has largely missed out on precipitation over the past month, supporting locally elevated fire-weather concerns. Farther south, the Elevated highlights were trimmed slightly based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front, windy and modestly dry conditions across far south-central Texas are expected to result in at least Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... Surface winds of 20-25 MPH are anticipated in the wake of a surface cold front, overspreading fuels that are at or above the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles for ERCs per current fuels guidance (excluding additional curing and drying during Critical fire-weather conditions on Day 1). However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests less confidence in relative humidity values dropping below 25%. Given the preceding day's Critical fire-weather conditions, strong post-frontal winds, and receptive fuels, the introduction of at least Elevated highlights is warranted. If forecast guidance trends drier, expansion of areas (or perhaps a narrow upgrade) may be warranted in future updates. ...Northern Great Plains... Gusty and dry post-frontal conditions are anticipated across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Montana. Surface winds of 15-20 MPH are expected, though relative humidity is forecast to remain above 20% throughout the day, and currently available fuels guidance has ERCs below the 50th percentile, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 8 20:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments are needed for this update with the more notable changes being an expansion of low-end severe probabilities southward along the TX coast to include the Houston metro area and an eastward expansion to the Atlantic coast along the FL/GA line. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track per the previous discussion. ...TX Gulf Coast... Recent surface observations across the TX Coastal Plain show a deepening low to the northwest of the Houston area with a subtle warm front extending to the southeast to the Gulf coast. Shallow, but slowly deepening cumulus are noted downstream of the low and along the frontal zone where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s amid broken cloud cover. This area represents a preferential corridor for storm propagation within an environment characterized by lifted indices between -6 to -8 C. Recent HRRR runs appear to have picked up on this trend compared to 12z guidance and show a signal for strong, to potentially severe, convection later this afternoon/evening. ...FL/GA Atlantic Coast... Recent CAM guidance has trended towards a higher coverage of convection across northern FL/southern GA early Sunday morning with stronger updraft intensity/helicity signals compared to prior runs. Although convective mode will likely be semi-discrete and clusters, sufficient buoyancy and effective shear should be in place to support a few somewhat organized cells and/or segments with an attendant damaging wind threat. ..Moore.. 03/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025/ ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low forecast to lie over the Alabama/Georgia vicinity Monday morning will continue advancing steadily eastward, moving offshore during the evening. As this occurs, a surface low -- expected to be moving off the South Carolina coast at the start of the period -- will shift northeastward while gradually deepening over the Gulf Stream. A cold front trailing southwestward from the low will shift steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the period. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will affect parts of Florida through the day, ahead of the advancing cold front. Weak instability will preclude appreciable severe-weather potential. Meanwhile, cool air aloft/relatively steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper low may permit sporadic lightning within elevated/low-topped convection. However, CAPE should remain insufficient to support any more than small hail. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 03/08/2025 Read more