Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur over parts of the western to central Gulf coast vicinity on Day 4/Sun in association with a weakening upper shortwave trough moving across the region. After a lull in precipitation potential around Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, thunderstorm potential may increase late in the forecast period. An upper ridge over the western U.S. will shift east across the Plains on Day 7/Wed before a deepening trough ejects across the Rockies to the MS Valley on Day 8/Thu. During this time, lee low development over the southern Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf. Increasing moisture return ahead of the eastward developing low and attendant cold front will likely result in thunderstorm development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid-South vicinity on Day 8/Thu. While some severe potential could become favorable in this pattern, uncertainty regarding northward extent of moisture return, and timing of key features at this longer time range, precludes severe probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the middle and upper Texas coastal vicinity Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east from AZ into the southern Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure and a cool airmass will persist over the southern Plains and Gulf coast. However, increasing southwesterly midlevel flow and midlevel moistening is expected as the shortwave trough ejects eastward. Warm advection atop the cool boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in increasing precipitation chances from late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the middle and upper TX coastal vicinity. Sufficient elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) will exist to support isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the middle and upper Texas coastal vicinity Saturday evening into early Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will shift east from AZ into the southern Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure and a cool airmass will persist over the southern Plains and Gulf coast. However, increasing southwesterly midlevel flow and midlevel moistening is expected as the shortwave trough ejects eastward. Warm advection atop the cool boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in increasing precipitation chances from late afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the middle and upper TX coastal vicinity. Sufficient elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) will exist to support isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Friday. An upper-level trough will eject out of the southwest into the central Plains, bringing a return to lighter winds across Arizona and New Mexico. Across the Plains, southerly winds will increase with warming temperatures as the arctic air mass begins to shift out. Overall, lighter winds across the southwest and continued cool and wet conditions across the high Plains will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low where conditions are the driest. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper low will move across the southwest, bringing enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of northern Arizona into northern/central New Mexico. This will result in increasing south to southwesterly surface winds with sustained winds around 15-20 mph overlapping relative humidity around 15-20 percent. A small Elevated delineation was maintained to cover the potential for drying of fine fuels amid windy/dry conditions. ..Thornton.. 02/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Friday. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf, and subsequent intrusion of Arctic air over much of the country, will result in cold, dry and stable conditions. As such, thunderstorm potential is not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will envelop much of the CONUS on Friday. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf, and subsequent intrusion of Arctic air over much of the country, will result in cold, dry and stable conditions. As such, thunderstorm potential is not expected on Friday. ..Leitman.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive across North America through this period. This is likely to include the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday. Upstream, the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard. However, expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies, likely will be slow to modify. To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon. While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent or greater thunder probabilities. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... It appears that mid-level flow will remain generally progressive across North America through this period. This is likely to include the eastward progression of a significant trough, and deepening embedded low, across the Ohio Valley and middle/northern Atlantic Seaboard through offshore western Atlantic by 12Z Friday. Upstream, the southern portions of splitting inland advancing troughing is forecast to continue digging southeast of the Great Basin through southern Rockies and adjacent portions of the Great Plains, while broad ridging builds inland to north, across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Beneath this regime, models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will proceed, well offshore of the middle through northern Atlantic Seaboard. However, expansive, seasonably cold surface ridging, now entrenched across most areas to the east of the Rockies, likely will be slow to modify. To the west of the Continental Divide, while seasonably more moderate, and stable, conditions continue to prevail across most areas, insolation beneath mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent overspreading the eastern Great Basin into Colorado Rockies may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization this afternoon. While it appears possible that thermodynamic profiles could become conducive to convection capable of producing lighting, the extent to which this may occur still seems too limited to support 10 percent or greater thunder probabilities. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 02/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Florida... Pre-frontal thunderstorm development over the eastern/southeastern Gulf has diminished with the passage of an apparent supporting mid-level short wave trough, which is now in the process of progressing east of the south Atlantic coast. As surface cyclogenesis commences and proceeds offshore of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas later this evening and overnight, the trailing surface cold front may advance into the southern peninsula of Florida by 12Z Thursday. However, lingering warm/dry layers aloft across this region will tend to minimize the risk for new thunderstorm development. ...Great Basin... Beneath the mid-level cold pool of a vigorous short wave impulse progressing into portions of the Great Basin, destabilization aided by daytime heating has been sufficient to support weak convective development across portions of north central Nevada. While thermodynamic profiles have become supportive of some lightning during the past few hours, potential for additional convection capable of producing lightning is expected to become increasingly negligible with diurnal boundary-layer cooling. ..Kerr.. 02/20/2025 Read more

MD 0117 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Areas affected...portions of North and South Carolina Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 191804Z - 192300Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain with rates of 0.05-0.1 in/hr appear likely over parts of the Carolinas through much of this afternoon into the evening hours. Ice accretion and impacts are most likely over parts of central and eastern NC. DISCUSSION...Early afternoon surface observations and regional radar show a broad mosaic of wintry precipitation interacting with a shallow cold air mass across parts of the Carolinas. Over the last hour, several observing sites across central and eastern NC have shown an increase in freezing rain rates and ice accretion, as precipitation has expanded in coverage and intensity. SPC mesoanalysis shows near-freezing surface wet bulb temperatures are gradually expanding southwestward into portions of central and southern NC and the border of SC. Likely tied to stronger low-level cold advection within the cold air damming regime east of the higher terrain, surface temperatures are expected to steadily fall below freezing through this afternoon. At the same time, weak warm air advection (950-800 mb layer) and increasing deep-layer ascent from an upstream trough will support greater coverage of moderate to locally heavy stratiform precipitation from western SC/NC eastward. With temperatures of 0.5-2C within the warm layer aloft, freezing rain appears to be the primary precipitation type. However, a mix of sleet and snow will remain possible as colder air deepens gradually from the north. Area RAP/HRRR soundings and observed trends suggest freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.1 in/hr are possible. Confidence in significant accretion/impacts is highest over portions of central and eastern NC where surface temperatures are cooler (mid to upper 20s F) and locally heavier precipitation is expected. ..Lyons.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34698024 34768079 35068082 35478034 35907926 36077705 36067694 36057607 35977597 35757619 35377647 34937706 34747782 34327892 34247948 34698024 Read more

MD 0118 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0118 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northern/northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191808Z - 192315Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around 1 in. per hour are possible within a snow band in parts of northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Immediate coastal areas could see slightly higher rates. DISCUSSION...As mid-level ascent continues to increase across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, a coastal trough is expected to deepen offshore. By the evening, a deeper surface low should be present off the coast from the Carolinas. This process should promote low/mid-level frontogenesis across parts of the region. This already appears to be occurring in northern/northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia. Wakefield, VA ASOS has reported heavy snow within the last 30-45 minutes. This band should continue to translate northeastward through the afternoon into the evening. Moderate to heavy snowfall is probable within this band with overall rates near 1 in. per hour anticipated. Some areas near the immediate coast may see slightly higher rates or at least longer duration snow as the frontogenetic lift should be maximized in these areas. Snowfall intensity will eventually decrease by late evening into Thursday morning. With southern extent, towards central North Carolina, more of a mix of wintry precipitation is possible along the edge of the snow band as there will be greater influence from the low/mid-level warm nose. ..Wendt.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35927883 35887899 35857930 35957960 36087975 36247965 36497933 37137790 37447667 37427611 37347581 37037561 36597552 36257570 36077666 36027741 35957839 35927883 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 19 21:01:06 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the middle of next week across the country. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests anomalously cold temperatures will linger through the end of the work week across the southern Plains and Southeast. These cold temperatures, combined with widespread recent rain/snow, will limit fuel status for the southeastern quadrant of the country. Persistent surface high pressure over the central U.S. will limit gradient winds across the Plains and Midwest through the weekend. Unseasonably strong/highly-amplified upper ridging along the West Coast will maintain mild, but dry, conditions for the Southwest/Great Basin with rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through early next week. Some long-range deterministic solutions - notably the recent 00z GFS - suggest fire concerns may emerge across the southern Plains around the D7/Tue to D8/Wed time frame as a surface low deepens across the Plains. However, considerable ensemble spread and poor inter-model agreement yields low confidence in this potential at this range. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the middle of next week across the country. Long-range ensemble guidance suggests anomalously cold temperatures will linger through the end of the work week across the southern Plains and Southeast. These cold temperatures, combined with widespread recent rain/snow, will limit fuel status for the southeastern quadrant of the country. Persistent surface high pressure over the central U.S. will limit gradient winds across the Plains and Midwest through the weekend. Unseasonably strong/highly-amplified upper ridging along the West Coast will maintain mild, but dry, conditions for the Southwest/Great Basin with rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through early next week. Some long-range deterministic solutions - notably the recent 00z GFS - suggest fire concerns may emerge across the southern Plains around the D7/Tue to D8/Wed time frame as a surface low deepens across the Plains. However, considerable ensemble spread and poor inter-model agreement yields low confidence in this potential at this range. ..Moore.. 02/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL peninsula shoreline later this afternoon. However, overall weakening trends and limited buoyancy suggests stronger wind gusts should be sparse. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low situated over the Upper Midwest with a large-scale trough east of the Rockies. Visible-satellite and lightning data show a southwest-northeast oriented linear cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of America immediately ahead of a cold front pushing southeast. This thunderstorm activity will approach the west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon. 12 UTC initialized model guidance agrees with earlier model data in the notion of this activity weakening as it moves across the shelf waters and approaches the coast. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for damaging gusts. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will prevail east of the Rockies. Precipitation associated with non-thunderstorms is forecast across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A linear MCS with a parallel rain shield continues to approach the western FL peninsula coastline amid modest buoyancy. A weakening trend is still expected with this line, though the anticipated coverage of lightning flashes warrants the continuance of thunder probabilities. A strong wind gust is possible with the leading edge of the MCS as it reaches the southwestern FL peninsula shoreline later this afternoon. However, overall weakening trends and limited buoyancy suggests stronger wind gusts should be sparse. ..Squitieri.. 02/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low situated over the Upper Midwest with a large-scale trough east of the Rockies. Visible-satellite and lightning data show a southwest-northeast oriented linear cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of America immediately ahead of a cold front pushing southeast. This thunderstorm activity will approach the west coast of the FL Peninsula this afternoon. 12 UTC initialized model guidance agrees with earlier model data in the notion of this activity weakening as it moves across the shelf waters and approaches the coast. While low/deep-layer flow appears conditionally favorable for organized convection along/very near the coast, the meager thermodynamic environment should limit the overall threat for damaging gusts. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will prevail east of the Rockies. Precipitation associated with non-thunderstorms is forecast across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies and Great Basin. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... On Friday a split-flow regime will exist with northwest flow from the northern Plains into the Great lakes, and a stronger belt of westerly flow from the Southwest into the Southeast. The overarching theme will continue to be stable conditions due to high pressure over the central and eastern states, though surface winds will become easterly from the Bahamas westward across the Gulf of America. While an upper low is forecast to move across AZ and NM late in the period, little instability is forecast with this system as it drops southeast out of the Four Corners overnight. Given nocturnal timing, lack of heating and minimal destabilization suggest thunderstorms will remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 02/19/2025 Read more