SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ..Thornton.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will translate from the Northwest to the northern Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night while another mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Instability will be limited in both areas and therefore no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. A few thunderstorms may develop off the east coast of Florida but should quickly move away into the open Atlantic as the mid-level trough and surface low move east over the Gulf Stream. No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Central OR into southeast WA and parts of northern ID... An intense shortwave trough will quickly move into the Pacific Northwest, with rapid cooling aloft and increasing deep-layer winds late in the day. Although total CAPE values will be low, the combination of strong large-scale ascent, increasing mean wind speeds, and steepening lapse rates will likely favor an arcing line of low-topped convection coincident with the strong vort max. Models suggest convection developing close to 21Z over the Cascades, with an eventual push east with possible convective system persisting perhaps into northern ID. The northern extent of the risk area will be limited by cooler surface temperatures, but strong winds cannot be ruled out immediately north of the current Marginal Risk. ...Florida Keys into far southern Florida... A low-latitude shortwave trough will move across the Gulf of America during the day, extending from FL into western Cuba by 12Z Tuesday. Cool midlevel temperatures with this system will extend rather far south late in the day, with -14 C at 500 mb. At the surface, low pressure will be located over the eastern Gulf by 00Z, with a cold front extending south. Increasing southwest winds will bring moisture northward with dewpoints near 70 F across the Keys and into the southern FL Peninsula. Through midday, showers and storms will likely affect the eastern Gulf into central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula, with gradual destabilization south of the warm front. Strong storms are likely to be maintained along the cold front as it progresses east through the late evening. A broken line of cells may offer strong downdraft potential, though low-level winds speeds will not be particularly strong. As such, any tornado potential may be weak and brief. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Louisiana and across Mississippi. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms continue to be most prevalent over the northern and central Gulf, near the offshore surface low. A few lightning flashes were noted over parts of northern LA into MS, but in general, this activity should continue to wane as winds veer with the passing lead wave aloft. Elsewhere, a few flashes with weak convection were noted earlier over southwest OR beneath cool temperatures aloft and in association with a now departing shortwave trough. A very low chance of thunder may linger in this area within the residual midlevel moist plume this evening. ..Jewell.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over parts of eastern Louisiana and across Mississippi. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms continue to be most prevalent over the northern and central Gulf, near the offshore surface low. A few lightning flashes were noted over parts of northern LA into MS, but in general, this activity should continue to wane as winds veer with the passing lead wave aloft. Elsewhere, a few flashes with weak convection were noted earlier over southwest OR beneath cool temperatures aloft and in association with a now departing shortwave trough. A very low chance of thunder may linger in this area within the residual midlevel moist plume this evening. ..Jewell.. 02/24/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 23 21:17:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 23 21:17:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 031200Z Fire weather potential will remain limited across the country through much of the upcoming work week, though some fire concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains beginning D6/Friday and into the following weekend. A broad northwesterly flow regime aloft is expected to persist for much of the upcoming week amid persistent, and unseasonably strong, ridging across the western CONUS. This regime will continue to promote dry conditions from the southern Great Basin into the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. Additionally, a return to unseasonably warm temperatures is anticipated, which will support gradual fuel drying and an expansion of elevated (80+ percentile) ERC values out of far West Texas and into the southern Plains/Southwest. The passage of weak upper disturbances across the northern latitudes will promote widespread, but light, rain/snow chances and an influx of cooler continental air for northern portions of the country, but could augment regional pressure gradient winds across the southern High Plains where fuels should be most receptive. This potential appears most prominent around D6/Friday when most solutions suggest southwest winds could approach critical thresholds within a dry downslope flow regime, though deterministic/ensemble spread remains high at this range. A transition to a more progressive upper-air regime is anticipated heading into early March, which could signal an increase in fire weather potential for parts of the Southwest and Plains as more robust surface cyclones become probable across the southern U.S. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... After an upper-level trough moves of the eastern Florida coast, generally quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the CONUS. Two shortwaves, one in central/northern Rockies and the other in Mid-Atlantic, will have little in terms of moisture to work with. Thunderstorm potential with these features will be quite low. Very isolated thunderstorm activity could linger into early Tuesday morning in Florida, but the departing shortwave/surface low will not synoptically favor coverage at or above 10%. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should continue across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may still occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...20Z Update... The primary change made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook was to trim western portions of the general thunder delineation over Coastal TX. Low-level moisture advection and associated buoyancy is translating east along the Gulf Coast in tandem with a mid-level trough. As such, additional lightning flashes are most likely across portions of LA into central/southern MS and adjacent waters. A few lightning flashes still remain possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Localized elevated conditions may materialize along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains in New Mexico, but should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. Additional forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion below remain on track. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface winds are forecast on Monday across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, reaching 25-30 MPH in the ensemble mean over portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. However, relative humidity values are forecast to remain at or above 20%, and ERC fuels guidance suggests that fuels are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread at this time. Given these limiting factors, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced into the forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida and coastal Oregon/Washington on Monday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Northwest Monday afternoon/evening. A broad upper-level trough in the Gulf will sharpen as it approaches South Florida Monday evening. A nebulous surface low in the Gulf will accompany the upper trough. Diffuse surface boundaries in the eastern Gulf and South Florida will be the focus for thunderstorm activity. ...South Florida/Keys... A cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing early Monday off the southwestern Florida coast and perhaps near the Keys. This activity will likely be east of the surface cold front and driven by weak low-level warm advection. Current forecast guidance suggests the greatest buoyancy will remain primarily over the Keys. Given the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, it is possible a stronger storm or two could develop. However, deep-layer shear will be parallel to this activity, mid-level height falls will be neutral until late in the period, and low-level wind fields will be rather weak. The overall potential for even marginally severe storms continues to be low. As stronger forcing arrives late, additional activity is possible along the surface front in western Florida. However, it is not clear if storms would be surface based or if buoyancy would be sufficient for a severe threat. ...Northwest... Strong wind fields will be in place across the region as a surface low deepens west of the Olympic Peninsula. A line of at least shallow, forced convection will impact portions of coastal Washington/Oregon. A few stronger convectively enhanced wind gusts are possible among the already strong synoptic flow. These gusts are most likely along the immediate coast. Given minimal buoyancy, it appears coverage of these convective gusts will be too isolated to warrant highlights. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...TX/LA... A prominent shortwave trough is tracking eastward across TX today, providing lift and destabilization to parts of southeast TX and LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in this region through the morning, but should slowly shift offshore by later this afternoon as the upper system passes. While small hail could occur with the strongest onshore storms, no severe weather is anticipated. ...WA/OR... Recent water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system approaches, strengthening onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will increase the risk of at least isolated thunderstorms - mainly this evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of far West Texas and central to southern New Mexico. Morning surface observations show very dry conditions in place (dewpoints in the single digits to low teens) with a very dry residual mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion sampled in the 12z EPZ sounding. Winds increasing to around 15 mph should coincide with RH minimums in the low to mid teens per recent ensemble guidance, which has trended towards higher probabilities of sustained elevated fire weather conditions over a region with slowly increasing ERCs (which currently sit at around the 80-90th percentile). Forecast concerns regarding portions of WY and NE remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%. Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle, winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below 20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread, especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of Louisiana and immediate surrounding areas today. Additional isolated thunderstorms may occur in portions of Oregon/Washington. No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the southern stream across TX. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, progressing through the Lower MS Valley and ending the period over AL. Another shortwave trough will follow in the wake of the first wave. This second shortwave, which is currently over the central Rockies, is expected to continue quickly southeastward, reaching central TX by early tomorrow morning. Recent surface analysis places a low just off the Upper TX/southwest LA coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through the northwest Gulf. This low is expected to move eastward ahead of its parent shortwave trough, remaining just offshore while gradually deepening. With this low expected to remain offshore, little if any airmass modification in anticipated onshore with offshore flow maintaining cool and stable surface conditions. Even so, moderate low-level warm-air advection (supported by 850 mb winds from 20 to 30 kt), will persist, supporting a broad area of mostly showers from the Lower MS Valley across the central Gulf Coast. Buoyancy will be limited by moist profiles and poor lapse rates, but cool mid-level temperatures should still support enough buoyancy for isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected over LA Coast. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of OR and WA amid the strong westerly/southwesterly upper flow and cooling mid-level temperatures anticipated throughout the period. Greatest thunderstorm chances are expected after 00Z across WA, as a shortwave trough and associated large-scale forcing for ascent move through the region. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/23/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Moisture will start to advance inland across Texas on Wednesday/D4, but will be shunted into the Gulf on Thursday as a cold front advances south. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity for much of the extended forecast period. By Sunday/D8 and beyond, most extended range forecast guidance suggests significant moisture recovery across the Gulf and some inland moisture intrusion across the Southern Plains and Southeast which will likely increase thunderstorm and severe weather potential. However, until that time, thunderstorm and severe weather potential remains low due to the lack of sufficient instability. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Mostly zonal flow aloft will be present across the CONUS on Tuesday with a dry airmass in place as a surface low moves off the east coast of Florida amid northerly flow across much of the Southeast into the central and eastern Gulf. Later in the period, some southerly flow will resume across the western Gulf, but moisture will remain very shallow with no instability present. Given this dry environment across much of the CONUS, no thunderstorms are anticipated on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 02/23/2025 Read more